PCT e

[traynor]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Thxs Pandy....looks like you went in your way of looking at it and came out with something positive..

But it can work!!!.....and not be dismissed

Mike

A suggestion. Your charts show average mutuels. Double (or even triple) those average values, use the sum as an odds cap, and re-run your data. The most likely result is that you will find an anomaly (an "outlier mutuel") that creates the illusion of a positive ROI. In small samples, one unusual (and almost never repeatable) race result can seriously tweak the result and cause endless rainbow chasing. Interesting, and possibly even fun if you have nothing else to do, but not very useful.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

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Same with 5-5.5 races. Hey Andy! Hope you are well

Hale and hearty, Ralph. Am ditching my four years in local politics soon and will return to the racing wars.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by andicap

Hale and hearty, Ralph. Am ditching my four years in local politics soon and will return to the racing wars.

I hope your 4 years in politics brought about some positives!!

[andicap]

Originally Posted by raybo

I hope your 4 years in politics brought about some positives!!

It did!! We were quite successful in turning our town from a one-party community to a very competitive two-party town. (I won't say what party for fear of turning this into an off-topic flame war. )

Back to horse racing, one of the things that kind of turned me off about the sport was all the negativity. It kind of influenced me and convinced me, consciously or subconsciously that I couldn't win. I finally decided that if I specialize on one particular type of race where the prices are better and fewer favorites win -- turf -- I would have a decent chance and have more fun.

I have some opinions about using %E in an unusual way using spreadsheets that I will post when I get some time.

[cj]

So, back to the topic...has anyone found that horses stretching out run roughly the same %E as they did in sprints? How about horses moving from dirt to turf? I remember those were the biggest selling points along with finding horses that fit the model of the track today.

[Delta Cone]

Originally Posted by andicap

Back to horse racing, one of the things that kind of turned me off about the sport was all the negativity.

You were turned off by the negativity in horse racing...and went into politics?

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by andicap

Back to horse racing

I, also, am very happy to see you back.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Red Knave

I, also, am very happy to see you back.

Add me to the list. I still remember a message that you (andicap) sent me years ago where you had uncovered a little gem buried under a heap of data that amazingly held up well for a few years. And it got my attention in a more general sense as well as getting you a mental checkmark as double sharp.

[Tom]

E% at Belterra Parks has been amazingly consistent for all of June.
No matter what distance, it has been between 0% and 0%.
Never seen such a tight model.

[reckless]

I make and use %E for most of the tracks I play (plus the feeder tracks and major circuits such as So Cal and Ky. which I don't usually play). It is a great way for me to make daily variants per track and for any adjusting that might be required because of track-to-track differences when shippers arrived.

[thaskalos]

The %E's main advantage is its supposed ability to distinguish the characteristics of various racetracks...so as to allow the horseplayers to make accurate assessments when horses migrate from one track to another. The theory is that different racetracks place different pace demands on the particular horses...demands which might help one horse while hindering another.

IMO...this is one case where "theory" and "practice" remain far apart from one another. From what I've witnessed, horses are a lot more "maneuverable" than some pace handicappers make them out to be.

[Tom]

If a horse ran 52.15% early last time, and today faces horse with lesser Total energy, it may only need to use 51.25% of that total and have much more left over for the stretch.

My two cents, race bias trumps track bias.

Welcome back, btw.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

If a horse ran 52.15% early last time, and today faces horse with lesser Total energy, it may only need to use 51.25% of that total and have much more left over for the stretch.

My two cents, race bias trumps track bias.

Welcome back, btw.

I agree...but we don't need %E calculations in order to determine which horse holds an early pace advantage, or which front-runner might be able to set a comfortable early pace while reserving some energy for the stretch run. Accurate pace figures accomplish this task quite nicely.

Thanks for the welcoming back...I appreciate it.

[Tom]

I have long since stopped using %E myself.
Pace/Speed figs do the job nicely.
Except at Belterra.....pace figure there are not so good this year....

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

I have long since stopped using %E myself.
Pace/Speed figs do the job nicely.
Except at Belterra.....pace figure there are not so good this year....

I hear BRIS has some good ones for Belterra