Tom,
These are the numbers (variants) that I got for 5/5/01 at CD. Assuming a hypothetical one mile race, I have the first 1/4m at 3.2 pts fast, the second 1/4 at 2.0 pts fast, the third 1/4m at 6.0 pts fast, and the final quater mile at 16.5 pts fast. (Using my ratings, one length at a 1/4m is worth approx. 8 points.) Since in a 1 1/4m race, they run the last quarter mile twice (albeit this is true only for a one mile track, not necessarily CD), therefore my variant for the Derby is: 16.5+3.2+2.0+6.0+16.5=+44.2, which equates to 44.2/8=5.5 lengths fast (or approximatly one second fast). I agree that making variants is a difficult and inexact "science," but its better than nothing.
Que.
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