Honor Marie Over Under Winning Derby Margin

[Vince P 777]

After crunching numbers and essential data multiple times and verifying all Output through my Abacus and TI-30, the above referenced horse comes out ahead after almost every projection.

The question is, by how much does he win?

Over a Neck?

Under a Neck?

By a Neck?

Vince P

ps: I may be forced to make my first-ever Legal wager next weekend.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Legal wager? Where's the fun in that? Actually, I'd guess that if you place a wager on margin of victory, it won't be legal. Sketchy, at best. But I haven't kept up with some of those newer sports betting sites, so maybe they offer it.

I double checked your calculations with the higher tech old "stick in the sand" method, not to be confused if the stick gets stuck elsewhere. It comes out that Honor Marie goes off at 23-1, which negates the need to juice the payoff with a margin of victory play.

Good luck!

[lamboguy]

the year GIACOMO won the race, i bet over on the attendance. it cashed easily!

[Afleet]

hope this horse trips out

[Vince P 777]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Legal wager? Where's the fun in that? Actually, I'd guess that if you place a wager on margin of victory, it won't be legal. Sketchy, at best. But I haven't kept up with some of those newer sports betting sites, so maybe they offer it.

I double checked your calculations with the higher tech old "stick in the sand" method, not to be confused if the stick gets stuck elsewhere. It comes out that Honor Marie goes off at 23-1, which negates the need to juice the payoff with a margin of victory play.

Good luck!

Lol.

I won't be betting Honor Marie Saturday.......because I already did in a future bet at 40-1, right after he won the Kentucky Jockey Club in November at Churchill.

I may do a backwheel on him in case the aforementioned Giacomo noses him out.

Vince P

[lamboguy]

i am probably going to be on HONOR MARIE, for something. i know lots of people like CATCHING FREEDOM who was the winner in the HONOR MARIE race.

but its really to early to finalize who i bet. i am going to need a good look at the horses when they come on to the track and warm up for the race. i like to look at the horses necks in as much as how they carry their heads right before they enter the gate.

FIERCENESS could look great, but if every race before the derby finds the winners coming from the back of the pack, there will be no way i could place any money on him. if the runners are going well up front, he will probably be my pick if i get 8/5 or more.

if for some reason HONOR MARIE is not 10-1 or more, i will go to the horse that beat him in Louisiana.

[Vince P 777]

Originally Posted by Afleet

hope this horse trips out

I kinda feel trips are often the Name of the game, especially in a crazy race like the Derby.

It's funny how we often complain about the bad rides/luck our horses get, but the truth is that a lot of our winners are the result of very fortunate trips.

Vince P

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Vince P 777

I kinda feel trips are often the Name of the game, especially in a crazy race like the Derby.

It's funny how we often complain about the bad rides/luck our horses get, but the truth is that a lot of our winners are the result of very fortunate trips.

Vince P

Well said Vince.

[lamboguy]

i am probably going to be on HONOR MARIE, for something. i know lots of people like CATCHING FREEDOM who was the winner in the HONOR MARIE race.

but its really to early to finalize who i bet. i am going to need a good look at the horses when they come on to the track and warm up for the race. i like to look at the horses necks in as much as how they carry their heads right before they enter the gate.

FIERCENESS could look great, but if every race before the derby finds the winners coming from the back of the pack, there will be no way i could place any money on him. if the runners are going well up front, he will probably be my pick if i get 8/5 or more.

if for some reason HONOR MARIE is not 10-1 or more, i will go to the horse that beat him in Louisiana.

[Afleet]

I'm biased on this horse. Played him and Sierra Leonne fairly heavy in the January futures pool exactas. Smaller win bets at 25-1 for HM and 13-1 on SL

[lamboguy]

i just got HONOR MARIE@ +1850. i didn't bet it

[Vince P 777]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I'm biased on this horse. Played him and Sierra Leonne fairly heavy in the January futures pool exactas. Smaller win bets at 25-1 for HM and 13-1 on SL

Good luck Afleet.

+1300 on Sierra Leone is an extremely good catch, imo.

I feel he is the horse to beat.

Vince

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am probably going to be on HONOR MARIE, for something. i know lots of people like CATCHING FREEDOM who was the winner in the HONOR MARIE race.

Honor Marie and Catching Freedom are both solid horses in my opinion with Honor Marie have a slight edge early and Catching Freedom having a slight edge late. Neither seems great on an off track, but if the rain doesn't come I am using both.

[Afleet]

Looking at the Ragozin for HM at 2 and now at age 3, I'm thinking with an average trip he runs a 5 or 6. Think that will win it

[denniswilliams]

Hard to make sense of the appeal of this horse.

Gets dusted badly by Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom in the Risen Star, with CF on the wrong lead. CF straightens out his footwork and dusts him again in the LA Derby.

Best case: he's the 3rd best closer in the race.