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03-05-2016, 10:26 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 66
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Scratches and their impact
Looking for some opinions about scratches and their effect on how the race plays out from the standpoint, particularly, of pace scenario and strategy of the connections.
Always wondered about the many possibilities, for example, how the number of scratches, field size and the changed composition of pace styles, actually affects the running of the race and final results. Plus any stats that reflect some of the possibilities, though it would seem a very difficult task.
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"I fool with the horses on a regular basis and they do the same to me..…with better results."
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03-05-2016, 11:21 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 66
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You can think you can definitely throw class of the current race and "class" of the individual competitors into the scenario mix.
__________________
"I fool with the horses on a regular basis and they do the same to me..…with better results."
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03-07-2016, 01:54 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Scratches can and do effect pace. Before a scratch an early horse might not have been able to get a hold of an early lead, for example. Handicapping software and spreadsheets should be able to recalculate after scratches.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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03-07-2016, 03:49 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Something I always wanted to follow were trainers whose horses were scratched by the vet. Thinking it might be a good guess for a tie breaker in a claiming race.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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03-07-2016, 05:29 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Something I always wanted to follow were trainers whose horses were scratched by the vet. Thinking it might be a good guess for a tie breaker in a claiming race.
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I've watched the state vet do pre-race examinations. They aren't comprehensive, so a scratch would have to indicate an obvious issue. It's always possible for a horse to develop a little bit of a fever or some soreness in the time since it was last checked by the trainer, but I would think if a trainer has multiple instances of horses being vet scratches that would be a red flag.
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03-07-2016, 06:49 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing
I've watched the state vet do pre-race examinations. They aren't comprehensive, so a scratch would have to indicate an obvious issue. It's always possible for a horse to develop a little bit of a fever or some soreness in the time since it was last checked by the trainer, but I would think if a trainer has multiple instances of horses being vet scratches that would be a red flag.
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I'd like to follow it someday.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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