*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by REBel

SA Race 10, the #11 meets these qualifications, plus he's picked on top in CONSENSUS. 7-4-17

Rebel

Actually Ron...that horse qualified just by being 10-1 and TOP CONSENSUS.

If he was 2nd or 3rd and 10-1...he wouldn't qualify because he wasn't Top Platinum Power AND Top Best 3.

The method calls for the horse to be on the consensus--that's a must. THEN check to see if he's qualified.

You can see the above post I bet that one too---hell yeah I did.

Certain tracks I just avoid--they don't suit my handicapping style so why play them. I told a friend Exotic Bets just doesn't work at Indy...so every few days I get an email from him, telling me about the big winner he had from the Hot List...or the Comp Report

Good for him! I still hate Indy. I've also avoided Ellis Park for the past couple years...it's just not suited for Pace View. I haven't checked any new programs there.

A Best-5 user sent me in something from Ellis--he was experimenting with the consensus, playing exactas.
Using the top-2/ over all 3...instead of boxing all 3, thereby saving 33%. That exacta costs $4.00....instead of the $6 for a box.

He did pretty good today...he even sent a pic of his OTB tickets. He reads this thread and knows how we do it.

I mentioned to him I avoid Ellis--he said he never played it before--was just checking it out, because the Consensus prices seemed pretty good. Here they are:



*I don't know what the deal is with the 1st race double exactas--probably just a typo

[NorCalGreg]

Took a quick look around the BEST-FIVE CONSENSUS for tracks running today--these are the 10-1 top consensus for today:

EVG
1ST GENTLEMAN'S GIRL 10-1

PRESQUE
1ST KILO 10-1

7TH ART'S SILVER 10-1


I notice one speed play while looking around:

DEL

4TH WHAT IF I WAS WILLING 8-1

This horse only interests me as a speed play, because he's 8-1. If he was 4-1 I wouldn't be interested. There's a chance he can wire this field, but he's certainly not completely solid (thus the 8-1 minimum)

[oughtoh]

Has anyone ever tried Woodbine and if so did you have any luck

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Has anyone ever tried Woodbine and if so did you have any luck

That's a tough track to play, that's for sure. Funny though...one day last Dec I decided to post the "longshot 2" selections from a few tracks. "longshot-2" is just any top Platinum Power that's 10-1 or higher ML.

Was hoping to get lucky and nail a longshot (to make the program look good) I ended up hitting the biggest price any Platinum horse has ever paid---and it was at Woodbine...$165.60

[NorCalGreg]

This was interesting from the EXOTIC BETS! Tip Sheet. for EVG

ARDESIA was 15-1...a single on the Comp Report..and made the Hot List..

You Exotic Bets user take note...this was a "DUCK"

[NorCalGreg]

Notice a lot of ads aren't showing properly, today. Could just be my computer.
Anyone do any good yesterday? Or even play anything yesterday?
Seems like I was the only one--- I didn't do much.

Today is the opening day of LOS ALAMITOS. It's a fun meet--they fill in the time between Del Mar and Santa Anita, several times a year.

This LRC track (That's what it's called...and listed on at Bris--"LRC" Los Alamitos Race Course. Their website has plenty of info..including good selections by a couple guys that really know their stuff. http://www.losalamitos.com/TB/DefaultTB.aspx

The track is what they call a "bullring"...it's only half-mile. Speed is utterly important..and give preference to horses that have won
here before.

I thought I would try something...I'm going with the TOP E-1 E-2
you'll find on your BEST-5 buttons. 4 horses---we'll see how they do





*btw...the BEST-FIVE CONSENSUS for LRC is up on the website--so you can see BEST-FIVE in action today

[NorCalGreg]

Well sheeit...now I find out LRC has added a t-bred 1 mile track. Not a big deal--I just had no idea. I liked it when it was a 1/2 mile bullring.

It's still a cold-shot speed track. You know when you hear people talking about a "bias"....ask them if they know what the ONLY true bias is in horseracing. LOL no it's not the "golden" rail

The answer is SPEED....any other "bias" can be attributed to "patterns"--and can't help you before a race unless you know EXACTLY how a race will unfold....and you don't.

I gotta run for a minute-- BBL

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Forgot to post the exactas @ LRC.

Top-2 BEST-5 consensus over all 3

1st 1,3/1,3,8
2nd 4,5/1,4,5
3rd 5,8/1,5,8
4th 7,9/1,7,9
5th 1,5/1,5,8
6th 6,7/1,6,7
7th 2,4/ 2,3,4
8th 1,3/1,3,8

Exactas are $2.00 minimum @ LRC

Each of these will run you $8.00

[oughtoh]

Don't forget, Los Al has the longest stretch around. Curious how it will play with your system. I have a total of 12 horses today in the 8 races with ML of 8-1 or higher. I played LaD yesterday and only made 3 bets. Pick 6 that had 5 winners which was a loss and a Super for $2.40 that paid $6.73 and a Tri for $3 that paid $20.30. Would have paid more if the 5-1 shot did not get nosed out by the 3/2 favorite.

[green80]

Yesterday at Lad, Best5 Consensus had 6 winners on the 7 race card.

[oughtoh]

Green How do you pick who to play when you have 3 horses in every race.

[green80]

Sometimes it's a tough call. I may play all three in rolling doubles or rolling pic3's and hope for a long one to come in. Consensus had 11 wins in 15 races (73%) this week.

[oughtoh]

I had all 7 yesterday, but couldn't decide on anything with the odds to play to win. That is why I just bet what I did. Then I miss my single in the pick 6 and another horse that was picked won. That is the problem I have with 3 horses, which one to play.

[Cice]

I like, which one is the 'Best Bet' today?

[green80]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Green How do you pick who to play when you have 3 horses in every race.

I use highest prime # to choose which one.