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Old 08-17-2017, 03:52 AM   #31
jim michalak
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valuecapper win %

in the valuecapper video series mp states that the win % is 30% for the first (top) pick and 50% for the top 2 picks, for all races. as has been stated previously mp advises against this, so if one is selective the win % should be even higher.

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Old 08-17-2017, 05:51 AM   #32
acorn54
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in the valuecapper video series mp states that the win % is 30% for the first (top) pick and 50% for the top 2 picks, for all races. as has been stated previously mp advises against this, so if one is selective the win % should be even higher.
the operative word in your statement is "selective", valuecapping isn't about picking the most winning horses, it is about getting value from the horses you bet. that's a big difference. if you watch the symposium videos you will get an idea on how the people who use black magic experience and think in their approach. they are looking to maximize PROFITS, not WINNERS. i'd suggest keeping an open mind while watching the rest of the valuecapper videos. i understand picking alot of winners is fun and all, and betting for value might not be as much of an opportunity for celebration. however you can have either very frequent winners, or you can have a good profit level, buy you can't have them both.
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Old 08-17-2017, 10:29 AM   #33
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the operative word in your statement is "selective", valuecapping isn't about picking the most winning horses, it is about getting value from the horses you bet. that's a big difference. if you watch the symposium videos you will get an idea on how the people who use black magic experience and think in their approach. they are looking to maximize PROFITS, not WINNERS. i'd suggest keeping an open mind while watching the rest of the valuecapper videos. i understand picking alot of winners is fun and all, and betting for value might not be as much of an opportunity for celebration. however you can have either very frequent winners, or you can have a good profit level, buy you can't have them both.
Exactly right. It's all about overlaid price horses.
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Old 08-17-2017, 10:57 AM   #34
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Exactly right. It's all about overlaid price horses.
again, it does not have to be "price" horses if you are referring to only betting longshots, just getting value. there are people who use black magic and testify that there bread and butter bets are in the 9/2-7-1 range. it really depends on how accurate the software's odds line is.
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Old 08-17-2017, 12:53 PM   #35
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I understand. When I say price I mean anything that pays double digits. Not necessarily $30 but say $12 and up. Anyway good luck.Im sure you'll do well.
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Old 08-17-2017, 01:23 PM   #36
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I understand. When I say price I mean anything that pays double digits. Not necessarily $30 but say $12 and up. Anyway good luck.Im sure you'll do well.
yeah well it ain't going to be rags to riches. the most successful coach of the wizards, claims he just makes some money from the software to take a vacation. and he's been using the software since it's inception as blam 1.0. he has a regular full time job to pay the bills. so the morale of the story is, if anyone is buying the software to try to make an income, don't quit your day job. that's what i like about the wizard club, they are fun guys and gals, but frank.
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Old 08-17-2017, 09:33 PM   #37
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I was just going by 1 winner out of 8 races. $2 bet on 8 races was $16. Wasn't going by the %.
1 winner out of 8 would be a 12.5 % win percentage. In that case you are correct that the average winner would have to be $16 to break even.
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Old 08-17-2017, 10:58 PM   #38
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Exactly right. It's all about overlaid price horses.
This is a misunderstanding. An overlay is an overlay no matter what the price. That is to say both a 4-5 and a 10-1 could be overlays. Or, they could both be underlays. In either case, making a bet based on "value" comes down to an accurate odds line which, of course, is very challenging to get right. If people haven't read Barry Meadow's Money Secrets at the Racetrack or Commonsense Betting by Dick Mitchell I highly recommend that they do.
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