The AP question???

[Kash$]

If he had run in the Whitney,

According to Serling,

[I]My answer to the American Pharoah/Whitney question is that it's a great tribute to AP that we even consider it possible he would have won

At what point was he blowing by a horse that was reeling off 23 quarters at 1 1/8 miles and not tiring?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Kash$

If he had run in the Whitney,

According to Serling,

[I]My answer to the American Pharoah/Whitney question is that it's a great tribute to AP that we even consider it possible he would have won

At what point was he blowing by a horse that was reeling off 23 quarters at 1 1/8 miles and not tiring?

American Pharaoh would have lost in an ugly fashion if he ran in the Whitney.

LTG is right on point!

[horses4courses]

Conjecture

I'm not saying AP would have won......we'll just never know, will we?

Hopefully, this puzzle gets solved in the BC Classic.

[Vinnie]

It will more than likely get solved. The fractions were pretty much identical to the Haskell for the opening quarter and the half. I know that the #4 was moving right along (I really liked him for the Win), but, did everyone forget how effortlessly AP was moving in the Haskell without being pushed at all? When I saw the comfort and ease of his strides, I said to my wife, ah hell, watch out now!! Hell, he ran every bit as fast as Honor Code did all out in the win at 9 furlongs today, and I really am a fan of Honor Code.

If healthy (God willing) I really believe that we are going to witness something very special from AP come BC Classic Day.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

It will more than likely get solved. The fractions were pretty much identical to the Haskell for the opening quarter and the half. I know that the #4 was moving right along (I really liked him for the Win), but, did everyone forget how effortlessly AP was moving in the Haskell without being pushed at all? When I saw the comfort and ease of his strides, I said to my wife, ah hell, watch out now!! Hell, he ran every bit as fast as Honor Code did all out in the win at 9 furlongs today, and I really am a fan of Honor Code.

If healthy (God willing) I really believe that we are going to witness something very special from AP come BC Classic Day.

Pretty much all wrong....

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

Pretty much all wrong....

Exactly. Stalking similar fractions at MONMOUTH is a whole lot all different than stalking those fractions at Saratoga VS. older.

If he was in here he would have been off the board, looking for an excuse.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not sure I even get the point of even pondering the question or trying to make the comparison.

In 12 weeks, we will all hopefully get a real answer. And at the Classic 12 Furlongs to boot.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Not sure I even get the point of even pondering the question or trying to make the comparison.

In 12 weeks, we will all hopefully get a real answer. And at the Classic 12 Furlongs to boot.

You mean 10, right LDH?

[cj]

Forget the raw times.

American Pharoah is just a better horse in my opinion. Keep in mind Liam's Map carried 117 today. If they meet later he would have to give weight to American Pharoah, a horse that carried 126 a mile and a half in the Belmont quite handily.

I'm not the world's biggest weight guy buy any stretch, but the shift alone that we would see should they meet is a big factor.

I long since gave up trying to beat American Pharoah, but I admire the spirit of those that have not.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

Forget the raw times.

American Pharoah is just a better horse in my opinion. Keep in mind Liam's Map carried 117 today. If they meet later he would have to give weight to American Pharoah, a horse that carried 126 a mile and a half in the Belmont quite handily.

I'm not the world's biggest weight guy buy any stretch, but the shift alone that we would see should they meet is a big factor.

I long since gave up trying to beat American Pharoah, but I admire the spirit of those that have not.

I said it another thread. HC is not about the 1 Turn vs. 2 Turn issue. He is all about the pace and race flow. If AP leads/stalks/presses a hot pace in the BCC, HC can definately run him down.

After watching Liam's Map run like that, I am more confident that I will make some healthy wagers at decent odds in the BCC against A.P.

Beating up on 3 yo's is 1 thing. Running 5 real quarters stressed out vs. a lot of older horses in a 12 horse field is a totally different thing.

If he proves me wrong, I won't cry. I'll admire him BIG TIME but I will play heavily against.

Count me in.

[cj]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I said it another thread. HC is not about the 1 Turn vs. 2 Turn issue. He is all about the pace and race flow. If AP leads/stalks/presses a hot pace in the BCC, HC can definately run him down.

After watching Liam's Map run like that, I am more confident that I will make some healthy wagers at decent odds in the BCC against A.P.

Beating up on 3 yo's is 1 thing. Running 5 real quarters stressed out vs. a lot of older horses in a 12 horse field is a totally different thing.

If he proves me wrong, I won't cry. I'll admire him BIG TIME but I will play heavily against.

Count me in.

Why would he be stressed out tracking Liam's Map? That horse is as laid back as they come. If I was going to try beat American Pharoah, it wouldn't be with a one run closer that has had back to back dream set ups.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

Why would he be stressed out tracking Liam's Map? That horse is as laid back as they come. If I was going to try beat American Pharoah, it wouldn't be with a one run closer that has had back to back dream set ups.

He can easily be put in a position to be stressed when you have 12 horses, of which 5 or 6 can be speedy. Post Position draws can play havoc, the gate break can cause havoc where AP would need to accelerate and use to earn position OR hit certain holes.

All that stuff hasn't happened. Why not? Let's take a look back.

Derby. Great post. Moved inward as 10 horses were put into a racing slaughter house. I personally don't care if he raced 3 wide around the track. People think he lost ground, what about the 10 horses who were accordioned to death? How much ground did they lose?

Preakness.

His entrymate snatched away from him at the gate. No stress there. Used a bit to keep rail and lead from Mr.Z (no coincidence his one initial to his name is the last name in the alphabet)

Belmont-Broke a hair slow. For some strange reason, both the 4 and 6 wanted nothing to do with being the goat and closing his path 1 step from the gate, I wonder why.

Haskell-all closers/weak horses in outside draws. Main speed from post 2. No one to really stress him. Jordan tried a bit but he couldn't.

Replace C Edge with Liam's Map, replace Jordan with any older horse with tactical speed. Don't you think his Haskell would become a bit more stressful?

Add in that he can have the rail in the BCC, break that hair slow that he has done before, jocks who know to cut him off if he break a hair slow, WILL cut him off. He's 8th buried, maybe rank and has to prove that he can rally from well of the pace.

Or, he might have to hit holes through traffic if Bayern lines up next to him and SMACKS him from Saratoga to Delmar at the gate (LOL-was kinda kidding on that one. Baffert would never allow that from his own stable).

He's been prone to some awesome racing luck. Was awesome in the haskell, I give him that but after watching Liam's Map progress, HC rally well going 2 turns I'm a bit more skeptical of him crushing the BCC field.

All depends on who lines up, how many line up and what form they're in. No final thoughts yet. We'll see. I might turn around 10/31 and say AP is a lock. I don't know yet.

I'm excited. We'll see.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

You mean 10, right LDH?

Pretty damn sure it is 12.

Today is/was 8/8. A Saturday.

We have the next following Saturdays.

8/15
8/22
8/29
9/5
9/12
9/19
9/26
10/3
10/10
10/17
10/24

and.....drum roll.. 10/31 for 12 Saturdays away from today is the Breeders Cup Classic.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Pretty damn sure it is 12.

Today is/was 8/8. A Saturday.

We have the next following Saturdays.

8/15
8/22
8/29
9/5
9/12
9/19
9/26
10/3
10/10
10/17
10/24

and.....drum roll.. 10/31 for 12 Saturdays away from today is the Breeders Cup Classic.

Should have thought this out and saved some time. You referenced 12 twice. One of those 12s is incorrect.

[rastajenk]

Funny stuff