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Old 01-20-2019, 04:28 AM   #376
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UPDATE: R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….…. 7-4-5 W/ 1-3-11 ….….4:15 AM EST

11-5-3-9– Dutch Loss 81% Profit Margin / $13.10 Quinella & $712.00 Triple / ALL of that one!

Last edited by Nitro; 01-20-2019 at 04:30 AM.
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Old 01-20-2019, 04:41 AM   #377
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UPDATE: R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T...... 5-11-4 W/ 1-6-9 ….….4:50 AM EST –
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Old 01-20-2019, 04:56 AM   #378
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Congrats on one helluva night Nitro!!
Well done sir!
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Old 01-20-2019, 05:02 AM   #379
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T...... 5-11-4 W/ 1-6-9 ….….4:50 AM EST –
11-5-6-9– Dutch Win 15% Profit Margin-Passed / $6.20 Quinella & $163.20 Triple / ALL of that one!


It turned out to be very profitable card based on the many decent verticals plays.
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Old 01-20-2019, 05:05 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by Ramblin View Post
Congrats on one helluva night Nitro!!
Well done sir!
Thanks Ramblin! Sometimes the tote board analysis is right on the money.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
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Old 01-22-2019, 08:11 PM   #381
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. 40th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 58 Degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190123_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 277 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 12th)
Race 5 Mother Wishes (44-1)

Race 206 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 8th, Second: 10th)
Race 6 Calling The Shots (35-1)

Race 238 (Winners: 1st, 4th, 7th & 12th)
Race 7 Bigwood (7-5)
Race 7 Namjong Plus (10-1)
Race 7 Rickfield (7-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 Very Sweet Orange (10-1)
Race 5 Charity Grand (7-1)
Race 6 Music Addition (9-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 2 Mr Right (9-1)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Naboo Star (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Naboo Star (5-1)
Race 8 Bank On Red (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 Merrygowin (11-1)
Race 6 Breeders’ Star (10-1)
Race 7 Ping Hai Treasure (23-1)
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:26 AM   #382
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 1/23/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1 - 2200M C5 (11F)T……. 6-4-9 W/ 11-2-8 ….…...6:15 AM EST –

R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….… 7-11-1 W/ 12-6-8 …..…6:45 AM EST –

R#3 – 1650M C5 (8.25F)T… 11-8-2 W/ 10-9-5 .....7:15 AM EST -

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….… 8-10-2 W/ 3-5-4 ….....7:45 AM EST –

R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..… 7-1-11 W/ 8-6-4 ….....8:15 AM EST –

R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…….. 4-10-2 W/ 7-11-3 …….8:45 AM EST – .

R#7 – 1800M C3 (9F)T…….... 1-9-2 W/ 3-4-7 ........9:15 AM EST –

R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.... 4-2-6 W/ 12-10-7 ……9:50 AM EST –
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:13 AM   #383
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todays 2nd race

twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars

converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94

why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout

thanks
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:43 AM   #384
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R4 # Bond Elegance
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:23 AM   #385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
todays 2nd race

twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars

converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94

why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout

thanks

Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1

TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.

At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1

XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.

Ted
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:55 AM   #386
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1

TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.

At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1

XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.

Ted
THANKS FOR A THOROUGH EXPLAINATION.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:19 PM   #387
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Quote:
R#1 - 2200M C5 (11F)T……. 6-4-9 W/ 11-2-8 ….…...6:15 AM EST –
4-8-2-9– Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin/ – $46.50 Quinella & $442.60 Triple / ALL of that one! (Quartet - $6370.40)

Quote:
R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….… 7-11-6 W/ 12-1-8 #6 substituted due to heavy betting …….…6:45 AM EST –
6-9-2-4– Dutch Win 56% Profit Margin /
Quote:
R#3 – 1650M C5 (8.25F)T… 11-8-2 W/ 10-9-5 .......7:15 AM EST -
11-2-4-10– Dutch Win 100% Profit Margin/ $30.10 Quinella
Quote:
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….… 8-5-2 W/ 3-10-4 ….....7:45 AM EST –
7-8-5-6– Dutch Loss 60% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..… 7-1-11 W/ 8-6-4 ….....8:15 AM EST –
11-6-3-1– Dutch Win 41% Profit Margin/Passed – $44.20 Quinella

Quote:
R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T……….. 4-10-2 W/ 7-11-3 ……..8:45 AM EST
–
4-2-10-6– Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin/ – $56.20 Quinella & $337.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race.

Quote:
R#7 – 1800M C3 (9F)T…….... 1-9-2 W/ 3-4-7 ......9:15 AM EST –
5-11-4-6– Dutch Loss 54% Margin/Passed -Quota Reached
Quote:
R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.... 4-2-6 W/ 12-10-7 ………9:50 AM EST –
4-10-5-6– Dutch Win 160% Profit Margin-Passed - Quota Reached / $15.60 Quinella

It was another very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 40% and was hit from the first 4 of 6 playable races. There were a few nice Verticals as well.
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Old 01-25-2019, 02:45 PM   #388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
todays 2nd race

twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars

converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94

why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout

thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1

TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.

At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1

XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.

Ted
There’s really nothing very complicated about converting the HK$ payoff to US$.

Whatever the HK$ payoff is (for WIN, PLACE, QUINELLA, TRIPLE) just divide that total by 5 to arrive at a $2.00 bet return in US$.

So, if the Quinella paid $338.00 HK$ the US$ return on a $2.00 wager would be $67.60.

Any fractional part less of a $2.00 wager would of course reduce the US$ return.

For a $1.30 US$ wager equals 65% of $2.00. 65% of $67.60 = $43.94 US$
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:26 PM   #389
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. January 27, 2019… 41st race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 66 Degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of Rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20mph

Post time: 12pm ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190127_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 King’s Trooper (7-2) First time starter draws a suspect field for a Class 4 race, trainer doesn’t win too many and usually gets the services of Karis Teetan when he has something special. The Irishman Callan picks up the mount and he is having a terrible year, playing that it continues here.

Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 223 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 7th)
Race 2 Nice Fandango (5-1)

Race 204 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 3rd, 5th, 10th & 13th)
Race 4 District Express (14-1)

Race 268 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 7th)
Race 5 Fame And Fortune (11-1)

Race 206 (Winners: 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 8th, Second: 10th)
Race 8 Ka Ying Star (6-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 8 Superich (7-1)
Race 10 King Opie (9-2)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 3 Ugly Warrior (9-1)
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 4 Money Winner (10-1)
Race 5 Dashing Gainer (6-1)
Race 6 Gameplayer Emperor (6-1)
Race 7 Exultant (5-2)
Race 8 Dark Dream (9-5)
Race 9 Midnight Rattler (14-1)

Horses for courses running today:
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 7 Glorious Forever (8-5)
Race 7 Pingwu Spark (27-1)
Race 8 Superich (7-1)
Race 10 King Opie (9-2)
Race 10 Perfect Match (5-2)

Distance specialists running today:
Race 3 Ugly Warrior (9-1)
Race 3 New Asia Sunrise (21-1)
Race 6 Winning Supreme (16-1)
Race 7 Dinozzo (23-1)

Class specialists running today:
None

Last race watch list horses running today:
None

Past watch list runners running today:
Race 7 Dinozzo (23-1)
Race 10 Good Beauty (13-1)

Key Plays:
Race 7 Singapore Sling (9-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 Money Winner (10-1)
Race 8 Easy Go Easy Win (16-1)
Race 10 Good Beauty (13-1)
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Old 01-26-2019, 11:17 PM   #390
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 1/27/19

Hey there Woody! I noticed that many of your Key Race selections are falling in line with the early tote indicators!

Good Luck this morning
!
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