Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yes, but there IS a Flu vaccine, isn't there hcap?

I bet you would call that one GIANT ASS MITIGATION....

And I'm not the one who has to include images of Trump in my posts...so who really is haywire?

Originally Posted by You

The CDC says the flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. - per year.

Now, shall we compare how many people are rendered unemployed by the flu vs. COVID-19?

The flu is STILL laughing at COVID-19.

That 61,000 is for the entire duration of the flu season . We are only at less than 1/2 of that duration, 2 freaking months!. And we are already equal in deaths.

There will be a second wave.

We are trying to determinate the comparative severity between the previous flu and the present, covid, for the last month.

Yes, we have had vaccines PREVIOUSLY. Another case for why covid-19 is and will be worse.

Think, before you post

[hcap]

A very complex problem.
Lots of controversy

I Just Came Home to Sweden. I’m Horrified by the Coronavirus Response Here.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...istancing.html

More on "herd immunity" Sweden is counting on.

The False Hope of Antibody Tests
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...munity/610762/

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

You are presenting a false dichotomy.
It is not either jobs OR lives.

Both can be saved.

All the lives that can be saved by slowing the economy have been saved. That time is ended. The economy is now sick and needs tending too. The only mitigation technique left is to have “at risk” groups shelter in place until things calm down while the rest of us go on about reviving the economy. This thought seems rather obvious

[hcap]

Originally Posted by tucker6

All the lives that can be saved by slowing the economy have been saved. That time is ended. The economy is now sick and needs tending too. The only mitigation technique left is to have “at risk” groups shelter in place until things calm down while the rest of us go on about reviving the economy. This thought seems rather obvious

I thought you were willing to let seniors die? What do you care?

Go out and demonstrate.

Don't forget to bring along your automatic weapons

But if you want to be serious, ramp up extensive testing, a 1,000 fold, a Manhattan project. including contact tracing.and data sharing on all levels

Make full use of the Defense Production Act of 1950, for all medical supplies needed and another Manhattan project for vaccines.

If this had been started, or at least planned one month ago, there would be a hell of a lot less weeping and gnashing of teeth.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

No, there are 5 kinds of lies.....


4. Colorful charts
5. Colorful graphs

You are welcome!

You know nothing of epidemiology, nothing of how to derive as accurate as possible statistics from a given population sample. Hint: the composition of samples being compared is over half the battle.

Do you honestly think if we want to determine how predictive a factor is, we should throw in all sorts of extraneous data? No, we ideally should use other similar Scandinavian countries, all with mitigation measures, and compare Sweden with almost none,.....to those others.

Not Spain or Italy that instituted social distancing too late. The article from the NYT evidentially only listed the worst excess death countries, not the ones withe least excess deaths. Germany, Taiwan, Austria acted quickly. And as it turns out, so did the Scandinavian countries other than Sweden

One apple with a stem, to others without one.
Not to with oranges with or without stems.

Chats and graphs are simply shorthand for presentation

[biggestal99]

New Zealand:

Why lockdowns are the right policy

https://news.yahoo.com/zealand-healt...131353972.html

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

New Zealand:

Why lockdowns are the right policy

https://news.yahoo.com/zealand-healt...131353972.html

Allan

Population: 5,000,000

New cases: single digits

But you are correct, lockdowns don’t work.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Or to put it down on paper

Herd immunity sweden pop 10,000,000
Cases 21092
Deaths 2586

Lockdown New Zealand pop 5,000,000
Cases 1476
Deaths 19

Now what is better. Lol

Good lord the facts are hitting you squarely in you eye.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by hcap

You know nothing of epidemiology, nothing of how to derive as accurate as possible statistics from a given population sample. Hint: the composition of samples being compared is over half the battle.

Do you honestly think if we want to determine how predictive a factor is, we should throw in all sorts of extraneous data? No, we ideally should use other similar Scandinavian countries, all with mitigation measures, and compare Sweden with almost none,.....to those others.

Not Spain or Italy that instituted social distancing too late. The article from the NYT evidentially only listed the worst excess death countries, not the ones withe least excess deaths. Germany, Taiwan, Austria acted quickly. And as it turns out, so did the Scandinavian countries other than Sweden

One apple with a stem, to others without one.
Not to with oranges with or without stems.

Chats and graphs are simply shorthand for presentation

No one wants to hear the truth.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Please be sure to include the economic and psychological damage done to the countries you are comparing to Sweden. Lockdowns are like taking prescription drugs, there are a lot of side effects.

Side effects like dying before your time in Sweden.

Allan

[Tom]

COVID-19 is serious for a small number of people.

Depression is far bigger problem for the masses.
Hunger affects even the healthiest.

We cannot lock down indefinitely.

The smart thing to be debating is how we reopen safely, not stick our heads in the sand and roll over and play dead, all for political reasons.

Perhaps THAT is the story the press should be investigating.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tom

COVID-19 is serious for a small number of people.

Depression is far bigger problem for the masses.
Hunger affects even the healthiest.

We cannot lock down indefinitely.

The smart thing to be debating is how we reopen safely, not stick our heads in the sand and roll over and play dead, all for political reasons.

Perhaps THAT is the story the press should be investigating.

61,000 in a little over a month.

Is that a small number to you?

Allan

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

COVID-19 is serious for a small number of people.

Depression is far bigger problem for the masses.
Hunger affects even the healthiest.

We cannot lock down indefinitely.

The smart thing to "be debating is how we reopen safely", not stick our heads in the sand and roll over and play dead, all for political reasons.

Perhaps THAT is the story the press should be investigating.

Let me repeat what will allow us to do just that

Ramp up extensive testing, a 1,000 fold, a Manhattan project including contact tracing and data sharing on all levels

Make full use of the Defense Production Act of 1950, for all medical supplies needed and another Manhattan project for vaccines.

If this had been started, or at least planned one month ago, there would be a hell of a lot less weeping and gnashing of teeth.

[MargieRose]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Side effects like dying before your time in Sweden.

Allan

No one dies before his time!

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Side effects like dying before your time in Sweden.

Allan

Excess deaths are up marginally in Sweden. Their economy has not gone into a deep sleep either.