Steven Roman - Dosage Index, Leaving the game

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

2. He attributed way too much influence to breeding with respect to stamina. It is of course true that over a large number of horses and many generations, some bloodlines transmit stamina ON AVERAGE. But that is only one factor, and not really a controlling one, with respect to specific horses. History is littered with horses who shouldn't have been able to get a distance and did. Snow Chief, by the California sprint sire Reflected Glory, who I already mentioned, was one of them. Here are a couple of others:

Just last month got into a mini argument with him on here about that very subject. He is so blinded by his belief that breeding is responsible for the vast majority of the changes in classic distance times over the last 40 years that he is simply unable to recognize all the other changes in the sport as having any significance, such as track conditions, lasix usage, training techniques, etc. Since the average generation in horses is approx 10 years long to my eye, that means there have been only 4 generations in the last 40 years. Hardly enough time to introduce significant changes through breeding alone.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Except Roman was never and is not in the same universe as Newton or Einstein.

That wasn't the suggestion or inference; it was recognize or criticize the work and not the person.

[cj]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Just last month got into a mini argument with him on here about that very subject. He is so blinded by his belief that breeding is responsible for the vast majority of the changes in classic distance times over the last 40 years that he is simply unable to recognize all the other changes in the sport as having any significance, such as track conditions, lasix usage, training techniques, etc. Since the average generation in horses is approx 10 years long to my eye, that means there have been only 4 generations in the last 40 years. Hardly enough time to introduce significant changes through breeding alone.

Well said.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Cratos

That wasn't the suggestion or inference; it was recognize or criticize the work and not the person.

Let me ask this question. How much influence did DI have on you when handicapping the 2016 Kentucky Derby? 0% 10%? 50% etc. The question is open for anyone to answer.

[cj]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Let me ask this question. How much influence did DI have on you when handicapping the 2016 Kentucky Derby? 0% 10%? 50% etc. The question is open for anyone to answer.

0%.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Let me ask this question. How much influence did DI have on you when handicapping the 2016 Kentucky Derby? 0% 10%? 50% etc. The question is open for anyone to answer.

That is a fair question and my honest answer is none.

During the 2016 Ky Derby and weeks prior to it I was hospitalized with a very serious illness, but I did submit a post with my choice being Mohaymen.

However during my early years in this game I followed Dr. Roman’s Dosage methodology very closely and moved away from it and many other influences as I developed and created my own methodologies in conjunction with my associates.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Cratos

That is a fair question and my honest answer is none.

During the 2016 Ky Derby and weeks prior to it I was hospitalized with a very serious illness, but I did submit a post with my choice being Mohaymen.

However during my early years in this game I followed Dr. Roman’s Dosage methodology very closely and moved away from it and many other influences as I developed and created my own methodologies in conjunction with my associates.

Do you use any semblance of dosage in your own personal methodologies? What I see in a bunch of posts is that dosage had a place in the sport 30 years ago, but that influence has waned, so am fishing for whether that is true or not. If don't use any sort of dosage, what led you in that direction? You can be general if you'd like so as not to give away any proprietary info.

[StormAgain]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Do you use any semblance of dosage in your own personal methodologies? What I see in a bunch of posts is that dosage had a place in the sport 30 years ago, but that influence has waned, so am fishing for whether that is true or not. If don't use any sort of dosage, what led you in that direction? You can be general if you'd like so as not to give away any proprietary info.

I got into racing around 2008, so I read up as many books as I could and several of them had a dosage chapter. For the 2009 Derby I paid attention to the all contender dosages.

I liked the theory of dosage index but stopped using it that year because I was getting laughed at for using an outdated method.

[RXB]

There seems to be an idea floating around that it takes hundreds or thousands of years to really change anything genetically. That's only when the normal course of things is going on and there's no specific trait that anyone is attempting to promote. If a particular trait is considered highly desirable within an animal population under human control it doesn't take long to heighten that trait's frequency of occurrence rather substantially via selective breeding.

[Secondbest]

Dr.Roman
Sorry to see your retiring.I was on your site often but mostly during triple crown and breeders cup time.If you read this just let me say thank you for all your work and I wish you all the best.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by RXB

There seems to be an idea floating around that it takes hundreds or thousands of years to really change anything genetically. That's only when the normal course of things is going on and there's no specific trait that anyone is attempting to promote. If a particular trait is considered highly desirable within an animal population under human control it doesn't take long to heighten that trait's frequency of occurrence rather substantially via selective breeding.

Find any reputable source/paper stating that substantial or significant species changes can be made to a complex organism like a horse in four generations, even under gene targeting. Every paper I've read disagrees with that notion.

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I like how he took his parting shot at Beyer...called him Andrew instead of Andy as well, like he's his dad....jealousy runs deep and long....

Agreed PA

Wow that was such a passive aggressive piece of crap I had to read the whole thing twice.

The whole idea of formally walking away and posting a big manifesto is crazytown.

I found the synthetic track part really nutty. He states that he believes money was the driving force behind synthetic tracks. Well yes it was. This is a business and people make decisions based on money. And then the whole respiratory thing!!!! Synthetic tracks have now been widely around over 10 years. The respiratory thing has been a phantom argument going back to Remington's surface in 80's. There's been zero data linking synthetic tracks to respiratory issues. In addition some of the games best trainers with the cleanest records like Dickinson, Motion and Proctor train million dollar horses on them daily. Do you think they'd do that if their were respiratory issues?

He just comes across as a guy who doesn't get it. That racing was popular. That racing had large crowds. He liked racing when it was like that. Racing isn't like that anymore. Therefore he is walking away. And on his way out the door here is a horrible argument tying racing's demise to the things he doesn't like about racing.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I give you credit for reading all of it once, much less twice.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Find any reputable source/paper stating that substantial or significant species changes can be made to a complex organism like a horse in four generations, even under gene targeting. Every paper I've read disagrees with that notion.

We're not talking about utter species remodelling, just making a quantifiable alteration in the speed-versus-stamina balance for the population of selectively bred racehorses. 40 years is plenty of time.

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I give you credit for reading all of it once, much less twice.

I met this guy 100 times in other shapes and forms. I know the lyrics.

"I remember when these stands were full... on a WEDNESDAY."
"I remember when a good horse raced every week."
"I remember when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a prestigous race."
"I remember when a trainer was a horseman first."
"None of these bums could could be Arcaro's valet."
"The Breeders Cup ruined the sport."