if I'm looking at the main concepts, there's maybe only like 8-15 of them, and maybe a handful that apply significantly to a given race.
and say PROJECTED(today's)BIAS is one of them...
What I want, is several of them moving in the same direction.
he's got a problematic post draw, and I understand how the bias works and that it likely applies to this race.
He's also getting bet for 3 of the field's bigger recent figures, but they were all DREAMTRIPS that he isn't expected to get today...
now I've got two models moving in the same direction, and I've got his odds being the lowest (call that a third model), so there is some value potential.
But it has to be a case where the public is misjudging the situation. You strongly disagree with the public. Not a case with tradeoffs or flat out more significant opposing things that are greatly in his favor, and he's getting bet in spite of those vulnerable looking things.
For example, if his CLASS and SPEED is so much better than this weak field (models moving in the wrong direction) that the money is saying that he'll win in spite of these vulnerable factors.
Big Brown had a terrible post in the 2008 Florida Derby, and there was a decent pace expected, and was fairly likely to be a somewhat wide into a hard pace with the short run to the first turn, but $5.00 to win on him wasn't a big underlay.