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11-22-2014, 06:26 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,672
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?
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I understand your point and agree with it.
Here's my point.
Michael Jordan would crush me. Then again, so would thousands of other basketball players below the NBA level. So if some basketball player crushes me, is he MJ or just one of many people than can crush me.
A lot of horses would have looked great and won easily against that field.
I've been a huge fan of HC since I was at Saratoga and saw his electrifying debut. But I don't think we know yet how good he is (at least I don't). We'll find out when he faces MJ. 
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-22-2014 at 06:28 PM.
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11-22-2014, 06:32 PM
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#47
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,844
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I understand your point and agree with it.
Here's my point.
Michael Jordan would crush me. Then again, so would thousands of other basketball players below the NBA level. So if some basketball player crushes me, is he MJ or just one of many people than can crush me.
A lot of horses would have looked great and won easily against that field.
I've been a huge fan of HC since I was at Saratoga and saw his electrifying debut. But I don't think we know yet how good he is (at least I don't). We'll find out when he faces MJ. |
Much easier to judge horses by losses which is what makes undefeated horses very tough to assess.
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11-22-2014, 06:39 PM
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#48
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Bets total = $295.60
$40Win on  ,  , and 
$2 Exacta box 125711 =$40
$5 exacta box 127 =$30
Dime supers:
1
257811
257811
25781011 =$8
257811
1
257811
25781011 =$8
257811
257811
1
25781011 =$8
2
157811
157811
15781011 =$8
157811
2
157811
15781011 =$8
157811
157811
2
15781011 =$8
7
257811
257811
25781011 =$8
257811
7
257811
25781011 =$8
257811
257811
7
25781011 =$8
127
1257811
1257811
125781011 =$24
127
127
1257811
125781011 =$9.60 |
This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.
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11-22-2014, 08:09 PM
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#49
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thebigguy
This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.
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He didnt bet 3 HORSES to win, he made 3 separate bets on BETS. much like an exacta box is 6 separate bets, 3 win bets is 3 separate bets. If you make 3 win bets in a 10 horse field, you are betting 30% of all possible winning combos. Its similar to making a 5 horse exacta box in a 10 horse field.
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11-22-2014, 08:44 PM
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#50
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thebigguy
This entire post is a big joke, right? Betting 3 different horses to win, one of them @2-1? This cant be serious. If these bets were made you have lost all credibility in my book.
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Please accept my apology.
I must concede that my exactas and superfectas were crude and innefient.
In addition to being too spread out for a race in which the target underlay(Honor Code) was a relatively high 1.85-1, I also failed to designate  Monster Mash as being preferred to the  , and I made a typo on the Pure Sensation superfecta key.
As for the win wager, I never have a problem betting 3 horses to win in this type of scenario, and should they be ranked from greatest to least for my opinion of value (as the were for this race), I have no problem betting equal amounts on each. I am however sorry that the did not narrowly defeat the in a ding-dong stretch duel.
I hope these concessions will provide you with a sense of obligation to reciprocate, and perhaps one day in the future allow me to rebuild my credibility in your book.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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11-22-2014, 09:01 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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OLD SCHOOL
I believe Shug got what he wanted; "a workout in company*
I don't know how far away the running of the Clark or if he was nominated for that race, but it might be a good race for him.
If Honor Code stays healthy, we might see some very good performances from him in 2015.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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11-22-2014, 09:21 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,583
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cratos
I don't know how far away the running of the Clark or if he was nominated for that race, but it might be a good race for him.
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The Clark is next Friday.
Shug is old school, which is to his credit.
Honor Code, imo, is likely to head to Gulfstream,
have another prep in January, and aim for the Donn.
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11-22-2014, 11:07 PM
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#53
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,102
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
It doesn't matter who he beat because you rate each horse as an individual. If Michael Jordan beat me in a game of 1 on 1, would you think he's any less talented because of who he beat?
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Of course, that was not a great field. You won't know about this horse until he runs in stakes. This is where horse racing is akin to boxing. It's easy to beat the "set up" heals to bolster a record. This is something people get burned by all the time and they never learn from it. They see a name horse win impressively and he's the "talent" of the universe.....goes into a race with equals or better, gets overbet because prior efforts look so good and gets buried. Just like that local boxer with a 12-0 record, he goes out of town, fights someone decent and its lights out, living on easy street is over. Many times in boxing its the beginning of the end for a career when it happens. In horse racing, they get exposed for how good they really are and tear up those tickets at short odds. People go gaga over these horses way before they earn it. It took this horse practically a year to win. Maybe he's not an example of that but beating lesser really is not a good way to evaluate talent. Hell, I can't beat MJ either but I can beat Grandpa Joe seven freakin days a week. In any sport you don't prove your mettle until you face your equals. One of my favorite "bet against" deals is a horse at short odds moving up because everyone thinks they are great. Does it work every time? No....but it works good enough. Still plenty to prove IMO. I read one jack ass that had this horse winning the Triple Crown, the Travers and the BC Classic if he didn't get hurt. I am so happy that people like that bet this game. I think they actually believe themselves when they say it too.  It does matter who you beat, once you meet someone better than that.
Last edited by burnsy; 11-22-2014 at 11:08 PM.
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11-22-2014, 11:12 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Michigan
Posts: 726
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"I read one jack ass that had this horse winning the Triple Crown, the Travers and the BC Classic if he didn't get hurt."
Hee Haw. That was me. Meah. Oh well.
Last edited by RacingFan1992; 11-22-2014 at 11:17 PM.
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11-23-2014, 08:51 AM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,672
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
Much easier to judge horses by losses which is what makes undefeated horses very tough to assess.
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Agreed.
It's an interesting handicapping dilemma. Some people will say horse "x' is being overbet simply because he's undefeated. They may be right relative to the horse's past figures, except that more of those horses are capable of and do jump up. It can make for embarrassing opinions when you are wrong.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-23-2014, 09:05 AM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,672
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106 Preliminary Beyer
Wow, good setup or not that's pretty fast.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-23-2014 at 09:06 AM.
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11-23-2014, 10:33 AM
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#57
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,844
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
106 Preliminary Beyer
Wow, good setup or not that's pretty fast.
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That was an average allowance horse in the 80s.
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11-23-2014, 11:16 AM
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#58
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,040
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Now its a grade one. 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-23-2014, 11:23 AM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,672
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
That was an average allowance horse in the 80s.
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Tom is right. Now it's getting pretty close to the Grade 1 par for older males.
It annoys me that various figures makers have horses either getting faster, slower, or remaining flat long term. Not that it matters in my handicapping now or that I have a solution. I don't. It's that prominent people then use these figures to make historical comparisons that are clearly highly suspect.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-23-2014 at 11:25 AM.
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11-23-2014, 11:41 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,340
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Tom is right. Now it's getting pretty close to the Grade 1 par for older males.
It annoys me that various figures makers have horses either getting faster, slower, or remaining flat long term. Not that it matters in my handicapping now or that I have a solution. I don't. It's that prominent people then use these figures to make historical comparisons that are clearly highly suspect.
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So, the DRF opinion on speed figures, including Beyers, is that the numbers are "clearly highly suspect."
Gotcha.
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