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Old 08-01-2022, 08:01 PM   #1
westernmassbob
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Anyone picking up on racing trends at Saratoga so far ?

One I found is betting on any Irish bred horse.
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Old 08-01-2022, 08:22 PM   #2
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Just my poor betting.
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:48 PM   #3
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One I found is betting on any Irish bred horse.
Several unrelated factoids which I put out for consideration after only 14 days of racing.

[1] Jockeys : Discussed in another thread, Eric Cancel has lost numerous mounts throughout this meet and his 36-1-3-1 record is a shame. From a betting perspective, you just cannot go forward with him at this point. Javier Castellano at 42-11-3-3 is riding out of his skin and while I thought at one point that time had passed him by, I could not have been more wrong. The Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher factor has impacted the standings based on who is riding at different times. Ricardo Santana, Jr. has looked passive to me in way too many spots with this 52-4-7-7 record. Personally, I have never been a fan of Julien Leparoux, but I am showing bias there.

[2] Trainers : You can do the obvious ones, but Ian Wilkes has turned my head this season. Wesley Ward's 2yo stock has been well documented as short of the mark. Rudy Rodriguez has been empty. I thought that Christophe Clement might have emptied the holster at Belmont, but nothing could have been further from the truth.

[3] Shippers : Has there been anything more "dead" than the GP shippers? I would need to collect the final numbers on this one, but we have reached the auto-toss mode at this stage. Do not give me anything out of the midwest tracks or PEN/PRX. CD shippers have been just marginal thus far. Monmouth training shippers have run well in spots and should not be overlooked.
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:54 PM   #4
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Rudy has been slow starting but Gustavo has put out some live runners including a wire job in the last race Saturday at a hefty price.
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Old 08-02-2022, 07:43 AM   #5
westernmassbob
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Originally Posted by ScottJ View Post
Several unrelated factoids which I put out for consideration after only 14 days of racing.

[1] Jockeys : Discussed in another thread, Eric Cancel has lost numerous mounts throughout this meet and his 36-1-3-1 record is a shame. From a betting perspective, you just cannot go forward with him at this point. Javier Castellano at 42-11-3-3 is riding out of his skin and while I thought at one point that time had passed him by, I could not have been more wrong. The Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher factor has impacted the standings based on who is riding at different times. Ricardo Santana, Jr. has looked passive to me in way too many spots with this 52-4-7-7 record. Personally, I have never been a fan of Julien Leparoux, but I am showing bias there.

[2] Trainers : You can do the obvious ones, but Ian Wilkes has turned my head this season. Wesley Ward's 2yo stock has been well documented as short of the mark. Rudy Rodriguez has been empty. I thought that Christophe Clement might have emptied the holster at Belmont, but nothing could have been further from the truth.

[3] Shippers : Has there been anything more "dead" than the GP shippers? I would need to collect the final numbers on this one, but we have reached the auto-toss mode at this stage. Do not give me anything out of the midwest tracks or PEN/PRX. CD shippers have been just marginal thus far. Monmouth training shippers have run well in spots and should not be overlooked.
Thanks for all of this info. It should be interesting over the next week as we will see a lot of horses coming back for a second start at Toga. The track surface doesn’t seem to favor any type of running style either. Looking ahead the upcoming weekend looks like a washout. That will surely keep them off the turf and trigger a boat load of scratches.
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Old 08-02-2022, 09:33 AM   #6
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Thanks for all of this info. It should be interesting over the next week as we will see a lot of horses coming back for a second start at Toga. The track surface doesn’t seem to favor any type of running style either. Looking ahead the upcoming weekend looks like a washout. That will surely keep them off the turf and trigger a boat load of scratches.
But you're rooting for Saratoga!

Friday is not looking great. The Hall of Fame and Troy will almost certainly stay on the grass but the other turf races look iffy at best. The rest of the weekend is fine with a slight chance of some showers on Saturday. The rain on Sunday is expected after the races.

Sorry to give you the bad news.
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Old 08-02-2022, 10:26 AM   #7
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But you're rooting for Saratoga!

Friday is not looking great. The Hall of Fame and Troy will almost certainly stay on the grass but the other turf races look iffy at best. The rest of the weekend is fine with a slight chance of some showers on Saturday. The rain on Sunday is expected after the races.

Sorry to give you the bad news.

I know this is controversial, but this is why Saratoga should consider adding Tapeta or a similar surface - too many cards end up unappealing on sloppy tracks with small fields - GP was smart about this (I prefer GP Tapeta to their dirt races myself)

Almost entire meets at Saratoga have been lost to bad weather in the past, then again Saratoga succeeds despite NYRA, not because of it

more controversy while we are at it - Saratoga should also up the minimum weights so jockeys don't have to make weight all the time - it doesn't affect the quality of racing - witness the exciting steeplechase race last week and see what the weights were

Saratoga should do all it can to be as ethical and high bar minimum standard on safety for jockeys and horses as possible and it fails (as does the sport more generally) though steps like no Lasix in Stakes was a great move in this direction

(PS I own horses a bit with the great Keri Brion, who prides herself on not using Lasix, and steeplechase racing is better for horses who don't get run at high speeds during sprint races while on injury masking drugs - the racing these days at Colonial for example seems much more well suited to what's best for horses, longer races, more turf, less cheap sprints)

I realize adding All Weather at Saratoga probably isn't likely and a lot of people would disagree

I do have to wonder if there's some way to alter the dirt track a bit to have more all weather flexibility

For those who don't like All Weather at all, I get it, but one wonders if recent technology might be worth a look (probably would help to look at Colonial's turf technology which helps keep races from coming off the turf as well)
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Old 08-02-2022, 01:53 PM   #8
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I know this is controversial, but this is why Saratoga should consider adding Tapeta or a similar surface - too many cards end up unappealing on sloppy tracks with small fields - GP was smart about this (I prefer GP Tapeta to their dirt races myself)

Almost entire meets at Saratoga have been lost to bad weather in the past, then again Saratoga succeeds despite NYRA, not because of it

more controversy while we are at it - Saratoga should also up the minimum weights so jockeys don't have to make weight all the time - it doesn't affect the quality of racing - witness the exciting steeplechase race last week and see what the weights were

Saratoga should do all it can to be as ethical and high bar minimum standard on safety for jockeys and horses as possible and it fails (as does the sport more generally) though steps like no Lasix in Stakes was a great move in this direction

(PS I own horses a bit with the great Keri Brion, who prides herself on not using Lasix, and steeplechase racing is better for horses who don't get run at high speeds during sprint races while on injury masking drugs - the racing these days at Colonial for example seems much more well suited to what's best for horses, longer races, more turf, less cheap sprints)

I realize adding All Weather at Saratoga probably isn't likely and a lot of people would disagree

I do have to wonder if there's some way to alter the dirt track a bit to have more all weather flexibility

For those who don't like All Weather at all, I get it, but one wonders if recent technology might be worth a look (probably would help to look at Colonial's turf technology which helps keep races from coming off the turf as well)
Don't have the numbers but it sure seems that Gulfstream cards as many Tapeta races as they do dirt races now, which makes that venue impossible for me to handicap and play, which I seldom do. This when it seemed their intentions for installing Tapeta was primarily for races rained off of the turf, and not to be an everyday surface for racing. If this is the direction NYRA ends up taking with some of their tracks they'll lose some of my wagering dollars as well. Not that it would matter on an individual basis but have to think there are a majority of other players with the same sentiment.

Last edited by metro; 08-02-2022 at 01:54 PM.
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Old 08-02-2022, 02:21 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
I know this is controversial, but this is why Saratoga should consider adding Tapeta or a similar surface - too many cards end up unappealing on sloppy tracks with small fields - GP was smart about this (I prefer GP Tapeta to their dirt races myself)

Almost entire meets at Saratoga have been lost to bad weather in the past, then again Saratoga succeeds despite NYRA, not because of it

more controversy while we are at it - Saratoga should also up the minimum weights so jockeys don't have to make weight all the time - it doesn't affect the quality of racing - witness the exciting steeplechase race last week and see what the weights were

Saratoga should do all it can to be as ethical and high bar minimum standard on safety for jockeys and horses as possible and it fails (as does the sport more generally) though steps like no Lasix in Stakes was a great move in this direction

(PS I own horses a bit with the great Keri Brion, who prides herself on not using Lasix, and steeplechase racing is better for horses who don't get run at high speeds during sprint races while on injury masking drugs - the racing these days at Colonial for example seems much more well suited to what's best for horses, longer races, more turf, less cheap sprints)

I realize adding All Weather at Saratoga probably isn't likely and a lot of people would disagree

I do have to wonder if there's some way to alter the dirt track a bit to have more all weather flexibility

For those who don't like All Weather at all, I get it, but one wonders if recent technology might be worth a look (probably would help to look at Colonial's turf technology which helps keep races from coming off the turf as well)
i am not qualified to comment on Lasix related to horse health. But I can tell you that no Lasix for stakes races is horrible for handicapping. How am I supposed to know whether a horse can run without Lasix? I am not sure what the solution is, but I am not a fan of wagering through this system.
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Old 08-02-2022, 04:08 PM   #10
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I know this is controversial, but this is why Saratoga should consider adding Tapeta or a similar surface - too many cards end up unappealing on sloppy tracks with small fields - GP was smart about this (I prefer GP Tapeta to their dirt races myself)
This has cost GP significant handle (despite the perception that it is saving turf race field size) and horses shipping out to Saratoga in particular have been performing well below par. Ultimately, it makes the proposition a bad business move particularly if GP wants to rebuild its Championship Meet reputation during the winter months.

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Almost entire meets at Saratoga have been lost to bad weather in the past, then again Saratoga succeeds despite NYRA, not because of it
The last drenching season was 2018 when some 40 turf races were lost. Driving your entire strategy around the potential for rain completely misses the point of this boutique meeting.

Also, I disagree that Saratoga succeeds in spite of NYRA. In fact, NYRA's aggressive broadcasting, investments at the track, and overall marketing has swollen Saratoga numbers post-pandemic to absolute new highs. Saratoga exists today from the efforts of Mary Lou Whitney - period. The rest of us are caretakers of that legacy.

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more controversy while we are at it - Saratoga should also up the minimum weights so jockeys don't have to make weight all the time - it doesn't affect the quality of racing - witness the exciting steeplechase race last week and see what the weights were
Weight has been discussed for a long time and the potential to increase weights to 122/126 have been floated, but never moved forward. Not sure what problem is being solved here aside from potential extra muscle mass for the jockeys.

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Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
Saratoga should do all it can to be as ethical and high bar minimum standard on safety for jockeys and horses as possible and it fails (as does the sport more generally) though steps like no Lasix in Stakes was a great move in this direction

(PS I own horses a bit with the great Keri Brion, who prides herself on not using Lasix, and steeplechase racing is better for horses who don't get run at high speeds during sprint races while on injury masking drugs - the racing these days at Colonial for example seems much more well suited to what's best for horses, longer races, more turf, less cheap sprints)
Agree regarding graded races in particular being drug free across the board. We can debate whether Lasix is in that camp or not, but for now, let's say it is.

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Originally Posted by Sheffwed View Post
I realize adding All Weather at Saratoga probably isn't likely and a lot of people would disagree

I do have to wonder if there's some way to alter the dirt track a bit to have more all weather flexibility

For those who don't like All Weather at all, I get it, but one wonders if recent technology might be worth a look (probably would help to look at Colonial's turf technology which helps keep races from coming off the turf as well)
Take a moment to look at Aqueduct's handle heading into early December when the turf can be used before any freeze takes place. Turf is a money-maker all around, excellent for the horses, and NYRA certainly would not be following the Colonial model but the incredible six turf course model they already have in place under Glen Kozak.
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Old 08-03-2022, 11:14 PM   #11
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Joel Rosario in turf races.

You're welcome.
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Old 08-04-2022, 08:25 AM   #12
westernmassbob
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Yesterday’s Toga card , highest win payoff was $9 and change. That’s got to be a first this year after just over two weeks of racing. Today we should see at least 3 races with double digit payoffs. Unless a boat load of scratches occur there are some pretty stacked fields for today.
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Old 08-04-2022, 11:12 AM   #13
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Yesterday’s Toga card , highest win payoff was $9 and change. That’s got to be a first this year after just over two weeks of racing. Today we should see at least 3 races with double digit payoffs. Unless a boat load of scratches occur there are some pretty stacked fields for today.
Late pick five still paid $760...just have to find a few favorites to beat...as good as they are, Chad Brown horses may be a little over bet as are Irad Oriz's mounts....

one thing I have noticed on the dirt is that riders would rather go three and four wide than be close behind horses. I wonder if it is kickback or just how the track is playing...good luck today to all
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Old 08-04-2022, 01:52 PM   #14
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A trend I see is not many route races being carded for the main turf course.
Lots of sprints, but not many long. Why wouldn't they utilizr the better turf coutse?
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Old 08-04-2022, 07:20 PM   #15
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A trend I see is not many route races being carded for the main turf course.
Lots of sprints, but not many long. Why wouldn't they utilizr the better turf coutse?
Because we can only run sprints on the Mellon.
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