Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-11-2022, 08:03 AM   #16
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-11-2022, 09:47 AM   #17
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)
The over whelming factor is the early pace and if a horse gets clear. This is no where an exact science. You have to accept that you’ll be wrong many times. But here’s the thing about those races. When you are right , and it’s against the grain. In other words the money is the opposite of what you actually think will happen. Huge dividend! It only takes two or three of those at a Saratoga meet to make a big difference.

Another factor is the weather and turf conditions. This is why I love grass wagering. When that course is hard and firm. Less rain. Speed is very dangerous. Lone speed where jockeys are holding back . Even more so. Just look at that Belmont Derby. Perfect example of an overlay. Classic Causeway comes in from the Derby showing speed his entire career. Bred for the switch! Hard turf. We are in semi drought conditions this summer. 26 to mf’ing 1……. Bye bye bye. If this weather trend continues. I can promise all of you there will be more of these in Saratoga. I play exactas and sometimes it feels too easy because many of these don’t make it but hold on for second.

Chad Brown had one on Belmont day. Same exact deal! Tribhuvan

Last edited by burnsy; 07-11-2022 at 09:53 AM.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-11-2022, 12:19 PM   #18
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
if I'm looking at the main concepts, there's maybe only like 8-15 of them, and maybe a handful that apply significantly to a given race.

and say PROJECTED(today's)BIAS is one of them...

What I want, is several of them moving in the same direction........

Agree. Finding overbet horses is usually multi-factorial and not a function of looking at just one historically known variable.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-11-2022, 01:45 PM   #19
jefftune
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 263
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)
Saratoga winning running styles for 5 1/2 turf sprints.
Last 5 years.

Wire - 35%
Stalk - 44%
Rally - 21%
jefftune is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-12-2022, 09:21 AM   #20
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 06:18 AM   #21
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
For me Saratoga is tough today and I won't make a bet. And I like the 1 in the 9th race who is the favorite. Tons of pace in the race and this filly should get a good trip.

HOWEVER

It is likely that a couple of others in here don't need the lead either cuz one race only isn't enough to establish a style IMO.


Can't bet the 1 at a short price. 6-1 or higher yes. 5-2 NO

Good luck today
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 07:57 AM   #22
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
For me Saratoga is tough today and I won't make a bet. And I like the 1 in the 9th race who is the favorite. Tons of pace in the race and this filly should get a good trip.

HOWEVER

It is likely that a couple of others in here don't need the lead either cuz one race only isn't enough to establish a style IMO.


Can't bet the 1 at a short price. 6-1 or higher yes. 5-2 NO

Good luck today
Just watched the video of last race. Didn't break sharp and overcame adversity to win going away. Likely Irad will send and that could get him caught in a duel. But very impressive first out IMO
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 11:53 AM   #23
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
vulnerable chalk

just gonna post my day's here, I'll probably be following along, but may not be in this thread all day. Interested in what you guys post.


7/14 (Thursday day 1 of meet)


Two races caught my eye. Both happen to be in sequence, so maybe that calls for a DD or extended pick-multi.


Race7 - Goddess of Fire - 3/1 and may well not be 'chalk' as far as the lowest favorite or as a popular heavy favorite, but she's a chalk.
She's a fine filly, and she fits in this race. A few factors going on. First; she does draw the rail, and I think that Angitude 8/1 will take a big swing here on the lead, Tarabi is fine tracking the speed, and even uncoupled stablemate Favor is a rival. More of a case of a lot of competition for a low-priced popular horse than some fatal 'flaw'.
Also a look back shows that in spite of the pretty form leading up to the Oaks attempt, Goddess of Fire was never a highly touted filly, running at odds of 13/1, 10/1, 15/1 before being 8/5 vs. 2/5 Kathleen O.
If she's 3/1 she's worth directly opposing with a couple wagers. If she's less than say third choice or so she's worth tossing out of tickets unless paired with real value in other legs.


Race8 - Canisy-4/1 and Myriskyaffair-7/2 tossing both Clement horses here in this turf allowance. While both are bad underlays, and enough reason to put another horse on top (and maybe in a Double with a filly like Angitude from r7), they are fine to include if you have some great price play in this race or other legs.
Canisy -7/2- 2-back she broke MSW on debut at 15/1 odds. Last race she took more money, but it was a weird allowance race with a slow pace that yet fell apart late. Depending on how you read that race, you could have varying opinions. A 24-1 Robert Falcone horse won with a last-move ( Linda's Gift in today's field exits that same race, with the same trip but is 10/ml today).
Myriskyaffair-7/2 - three races ago she was 12/1 in a KEE MSW. Then the next race she goes in a sloppy off the turf race with only four rivals and breaks her maden at 4/5 odds. Last race she's in a Stakes race and runs 2nd, but she did zero running and managed to grind out a late 2nd to the Chad Brown runner who made a run and won the race. It wasn't some impressive stakes 2nd.

Lot's of other ways to go in race 8... the most obvious is the Customer List - visually impressive winning MSW Monmouth first time out while earning a lower Beyer. 2nd time start was 2/1 in the Penn Oaks and stumbled at the start. Today makes her 3rd start. If the morning line is accurate and this is actually fourth-choice and around 6/1 that's all you would focus into.

If the is co-favorite, you could pass, key with others aside from Clement's uncoupled duo of underlays, or get fancier. Missy Greer -15/1- is one such long shot. Flying P stables is very good with career bests on stamina extension, and the projects to be loose pace in here.

Another long shot in the 8th is the Candy Light 15/1ml for Graham Motion. -Debut race visually impressive turn of foot turf sprint. , 2nd lifetime race '4/5' Odds in a 6f MSW Turf Aqueduct. She then jumped right into three grueling 1M 2nd-finish line dirt races at Laurel, with her 3rd racing facing off against Luna Belle. Last race she was a 36/1 long shot in the Black Eyed Susan. She then was back to Fair Hill training for Saratoga turf races like this.
I don't love here but she's a better price include than the or .

I'd advise watching today's "Talking Horses" segment w/ Serling. See if he hads anything on some of these or others I haven't mentioned.

It may just be Chad Brown at 5/2-7/2 range for the , but this race has some potential.


good luck all, enjoy the festivities, hope to read your vulnerable chalk through the Sar/DelMar meets
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 03:13 PM   #24
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,575
Race 5: Catching Cupid (class-dropper) is currently 7-1 on the board. Down from 7/2 ML. This is a state bred maiden claiming. The lowest of the low.
The current favorites & are dropping in class too just like Cupid but are 5/2. It's a race like this you pick the value.

The turf courses looks fabulous. Must have been some major rains leading up to opening day. Let's go SPA!
Redboard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 07:55 PM   #25
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 08:36 PM   #26
1st time lasix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,037
Vulnerable

Toga race 3. Four horse Bondi2-1 morning line. Blinkers off- has quit in lane last two tries… prefer four others. Will not be “using”in early pick five Bond and Saez connections guarantees NY bred will take too much money IMO
1st time lasix is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2022, 09:15 PM   #27
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1st time lasix View Post
Toga race 3. Four horse Bondi2-1 morning line. Blinkers off- has quit in lane last two tries… prefer four others. Will not be “using”in early pick five Bond and Saez connections guarantees NY bred will take too much money IMO
I agree. Gonna end up using 1 and 3. The 3 was a no try last time. Will probably be tough with a clean trip tomorrow.
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2022, 08:24 AM   #28
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2022, 08:46 AM   #29
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
I agree. Gonna end up using 1 and 3. The 3 was a no try last time. Will probably be tough with a clean trip tomorrow.
It wasn't "no try" as Jose got completely buried in traffic. There is ZERO chance he didn't want to win that race.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-15-2022, 09:07 AM   #30
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
It wasn't "no try" as Jose got completely buried in traffic. There is ZERO chance he didn't want to win that race.
I'll meet you half way on it. There was a point where he could have angled out and didn't but yes mostly buried.


Anyway, pretty sure we'll see a big effort in this spot. GL
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.