just gonna post my day's here, I'll probably be following along, but may not be in this thread all day. Interested in what you guys post.
7/14 (Thursday day 1 of meet)
Two races caught my eye. Both happen to be in sequence, so maybe that calls for a DD or extended pick-multi.
Race7 -
Goddess of Fire - 3/1 and may well not be 'chalk' as far as the lowest favorite or as a popular heavy favorite, but she's a chalk.
She's a fine filly, and she fits in this race. A few factors going on. First; she does draw the rail, and I think that
Angitude 8/1 will take a big swing here on the lead,
Tarabi is fine tracking the speed, and even uncoupled stablemate
Favor is a rival. More of a case of a lot of competition for a low-priced popular horse than some fatal 'flaw'.
Also a look back shows that in spite of the pretty form leading up to the Oaks attempt, Goddess of Fire was never a highly touted filly, running at odds of 13/1, 10/1, 15/1 before being 8/5 vs. 2/5 Kathleen O.
If she's 3/1 she's worth directly opposing with a couple wagers. If she's less than say third choice or so she's worth tossing out of tickets unless paired with real value in other legs.
Race8 -
Canisy-4/1 and
Myriskyaffair-7/2 tossing both Clement horses here in this turf allowance. While both are bad underlays, and enough reason to put another horse on top (and maybe in a Double with a filly like Angitude from r7), they are fine to include if you have some great price play in this race or other legs.
Canisy -7/2- 2-back she broke MSW on debut at 15/1 odds. Last race she took more money, but it was a weird allowance race with a slow pace that yet fell apart late. Depending on how you read that race, you could have varying opinions. A 24-1 Robert Falcone horse won with a last-move (
Linda's Gift in today's field exits that same race, with the same trip but is 10/ml today).
Myriskyaffair-7/2 - three races ago she was 12/1 in a KEE MSW. Then the next race she goes in a sloppy off the turf race with only four rivals and breaks her maden at 4/5 odds. Last race she's in a Stakes race and runs 2nd, but she did zero running and managed to grind out a late 2nd to the Chad Brown runner who made a run and won the race. It wasn't some impressive stakes 2nd.
Lot's of other ways to go in race 8... the most obvious is the
Customer List - visually impressive winning MSW Monmouth first time out while earning a lower Beyer. 2nd time start was 2/1 in the Penn Oaks and stumbled at the start. Today makes her 3rd start. If the morning line is accurate and this
is actually fourth-choice and around 6/1 that's all you would focus into.
If the
is co-favorite, you could pass, key with others aside from Clement's uncoupled duo of underlays, or get fancier.
Missy Greer -15/1- is one such long shot. Flying P stables is very good with career bests on stamina extension, and the
projects to be loose pace in here.
Another long shot in the 8th is the
Candy Light 15/1ml for Graham Motion. -Debut race visually impressive turn of foot turf sprint. , 2nd lifetime race '4/5' Odds in a 6f MSW Turf Aqueduct. She then jumped right into three grueling 1M 2nd-finish line dirt races at Laurel, with her 3rd racing facing off against Luna Belle. Last race she was a 36/1 long shot in the Black Eyed Susan. She then was back to Fair Hill training for Saratoga turf races like this.
I don't love here but she's a better price include than the
or
.
I'd advise watching today's "Talking Horses" segment w/ Serling. See if he hads anything on some of these or others I haven't mentioned.
It may just be Chad Brown at 5/2-7/2 range for the
, but this race has some potential.
good luck all, enjoy the festivities, hope to read your vulnerable chalk through the Sar/DelMar meets