Charge It. Giraffe?

[Bullet Plane]

The late , great Cary Forties had a term for a horse that jumped up and ran a big speed figure that was out of line with the rest of the races. He called the number a giraffe. Im wondering if Charge It's Dwyer isn't going to fit in that category. Its a little early to make a call on it, but it makes me wonder.

He reminds me somewhat of Bellamy Road who ran a huge BSF of 120 in the 2005 Wood Memorial. winning by 17 and a half lengths. . He had previously ran a 96 in an allowance win. Thats a 24 point jump. He went on to lose the Kentucky Derby as the favorite. He was a speed horse, and the closers had the advantage that year, Giacomo won it.
Bellamy Road later ran in the Travers and came in second with a 106 BSF.

What I'm talking about isn't a performance bounce, but a set of odd race dynamics that lead to a big win by multiple lengths that never is repeated.

Charge It ran a 93 BSF in the Florida Derby, then comes back to run a 111 (133 TFUS) in the Dwyer, a jump of 18 points. And he won by 23 lengths.

Anybody with any thoughts on this phenomenon? And if Charge It is going to be another giraffe?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Good thread.

I'm not gonna throw away his 23 length win, but I'm also not gonna say he is the best of the 3YO division either.

Liked him in the Florida Derby, and he was green as heck losing to White Abarrio. Pretty sure we can all toss out the Kentucky Derby, so I'm really not sure what to think of Charge It.

The talent is there, but can he beat anybody with a pulse is the question.

[Tom]

I never those Beyers serioudly.
I make the winning matgin 2 lengths and re-calculate the fig, then, if the horse looks good ok.

Too many run away winners on those 1 turn route races to get excited about them.

[cj]

We always here about the big fig jump ups that don't run well next out, but I'd be willing to bet more often than not they do run well. This doesn't apply to older horses, but 2, 3, and even early season 4...yes.

[MJC922]

Fwiw I have it as a top but not anything other-worldly. On a 'sheet'-scale 10, 10, 9, 15, 7 so a two point top and par for grade one 3yo win is a 7. Nice line starting with a pair of 10s and going to a 9 then down to a 7. I would have to call it as standard development by a lightly raced horse vs one isolated number though. I'm not familiar with the term giraffe. The forward moves are larger on a regular time based speed figure because age related development is not built in, whereas with my numbers it's relative to everyone else as a group so to a degree it is built in.