Surprising favorites...

[Maximillion]

If a horse was getting heavy support and I could not figure out why I would probably put him down as a ''question mark".The presence of one of these would not stop me from betting a race if I liked something......if we are talking about 3 or more other "Qmarks" whether by this, or other reasons like layoffs/trainer change etc. I would start looking at another race.

[mmmjjjj]

so tom if u are out there

they loaded 4 horses in yesterdays florida derby

from that time until the off

almost 500,000 dollars was bet and 3 selections

were bot selections !!!

#1-- 16-1---11-1 massive money came
#12 --- 3-1---5-2
#9 --- 7-2---3-1 and he had two explosive moves within the gate



here comes the best part

they all lost !!!

and even better all had major negatives majorrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

all the insiders knew that the #7 would not drop
they (bots)were working the numbers
forgot to implement intent!!!!

so mountmain (analogy) is totally correct
as the flow of the money took precedence over what was most important

who were the best plays period!!!!


so who cares what they are doing

cj if u are out there what were the probable odds payouts for
these horses with 4 minutes to post

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

so tom if u are out there

they loaded 4 horses in yesterdays florida derby

from that time until the off

almost 500,000 dollars was bet and 3 selections

were bot selections !!!

#1-- 16-1---11-1 massive money came
#12 --- 3-1---5-2
#9 --- 7-2---3-1 and he had two explosive moves within the gate



here comes the best part

they all lost !!!

and even better all had major negatives majorrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

all the insiders knew that the #7 would not drop
they (bots)were working the numbers
forgot to implement intent!!!!

so mountainman (analogy) is totally correct
as the flow of the money took precedence over what was most important

who were the best plays period!!!!


so who cares what they are doing

cj if u are out there what were the probable odds payouts for
these horses with 4 minutes to post

Good thread. Interested in hearing some input on the Florida Derby.




here is my old spiel on "Unexpected Odds Behavior"


***UOB***





What is UOB?, and why does it make your expected ML important?

When the Odds Behave differently from what you Expected, this is telling you in real time, that YOU WERE WRONG.

For whatever reason, you thought that the Odds would be wayyy different from what they actually are.

Safest thing to do at that point is 'fold em'.
Pass the race and move on.

OR
there are more advanced ways to 'read' that hand.


When the Odds behave unexpectedly, there are 3 primary reasons:

• Randomness (public 'gravitated' to a 'default' fav, a 'high roller' went on 'tilt', dumb money following after dumb money, etc...)

• Errors (We made a bad line! WE made a mistake. We were Wrong!!)

• Inside Information (Trainer/Owner/Pro loves/hates this horse today, etc..)

Beginners should always pass, except for fun/practice.


Advanced horseplayers should usually pass, but also attempt to read their ERRORS and why they screwed up and misjudged the odds and how they can learn from it.

Once in a while they can adapt on the fly and re-calculate their bet.



Once in a blue moon, - they realize that word is out, and a horse is Hot or Cold on the board, and the player is sharp enough to tell the difference between a screw-up, and a horse that is UNEXPECTEDLY Hot-or-Cold-on-the-board that may be a horse to key or toss on a few tickets or whatever.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Thaskalos, you reading this?? Great news, you're almost there! Wait, there's gotta be a catch?...

It's hard to separate the "students" from the 'teachers' in this game. Speaking for myself...the more I play this game...the more I feel that I have things yet to learn.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Speaking for myself...the more I play this game...the more I feel that I have things yet to learn.

I've been battling with some handicapping questions for decades. Even after accumulating years of data in recent years so I could actually test these things I still can't answer some of the questions well because of the complexities.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've been battling with some handicapping questions for decades. Even after accumulating years of data in recent years so I could actually test these things I still can't answer some of the questions well because of the complexities.

To determine whether or not to bet races where there is a surprising favorite certainly shouldn't be one of those problems with overwhelming complexities.

[JMan]

So.... as someone fairly new, it sounds like anyone who has software or another type of system that takes into consideration the ML odds should.... toss it? Or simply NOT include ML odds? Yes?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by JMan

So.... as someone fairly new, it sounds like anyone who has software or another type of system that takes into consideration the ML odds should.... toss it? Or simply NOT include ML odds? Yes?

There can be signal in the ML odds, but it's easy to quickly add enough other features that anything that was in them is being accounted for in other features. It's fairly easy to test however - most of the models that might be used to generate a line for a race will have some method to tell how "important" a given feature is.

Something that's more important imo is that the ML comes from a human and that human is likely different across track/day/year/etc. So whatever model you do use should have some way to account for this change - i.e. stratify by track, re-estimate the model frequently, etc. You certainly shouldn't estimate once across all races and never think about it again.

[Robert Fischer]

CJ can tell you the new feature that uses tote-info to project a better odds prediction.

That is the best to use.

It's still a rare occasion, but obviously it's significant enough to have players talking.

[JohnGalt1]

The horse I like is 3-1 ML

Other horse is 5-1 ML

Minute to post my horse is 6-1

Other horse is 9-5

Many handicapping authors suggest that if my horse is a strong play at 3-1 that I should bet more at 6-1

My choice in this example, unless I thought the other horse absolutely couldn't win, would be to bet both horses to win, maybe 60% on mine and 40% on the other.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

To determine whether or not to bet races where there is a surprising favorite certainly shouldn't be one of those problems with overwhelming complexities.

One example I can think of is when a horse I didn't expect to get bet heavily takes a lot of action and then I see that another popular speed figure service has the horse a lot faster than others.

Then the question becomes "who is right?".

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've been battling with some handicapping questions for decades. Even after accumulating years of data in recent years so I could actually test these things I still can't answer some of the questions well because of the complexities.

Originally Posted by AndyC

To determine whether or not to bet races where there is a surprising favorite certainly shouldn't be one of those problems with overwhelming complexities.

..................................EXACTLY

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

One example I can think of is when a horse I didn't expect to get bet heavily takes a lot of action and then I see that another popular speed figure service has the horse a lot faster than others.

Then the question becomes "who is right?".

If you respect the value of money (and its intended purpose) in the betting arena you’ll soon find out “who is right”. It’s certainly not your average handicapper (the outsider). Did you witness the authors of that “speed service” lay in a real healthy bet?
Besides, perhaps someone's intentions are to really try with the horse that you didn’t expect to get heavy betting! Does the PP data tell you the horse’s physical and mental condition?

When viewing a thread like this I personally take most of the content with a grain of salt.
Why? Because of the following:
A) It’s pretty obvious that the theme and focus is on just betting to Win.
B) Concern about only a single entry the; the betting favorite (And perhaps why its the favorite)
C) How this betting mentality compares with some sort of subjective conclusion reached through an individual's handicapping methodology

Don’t get me wrong, I have nothing against betting to Win when its part of a Dutch play with 2 or 3 entries. I’m not looking for a single Winner per se. I’m looking for profitability from a Winning play from horizontal type bets

When someone is considering the activity of odds and odds-movement they’re ONLY looking at a single facet of the betting pools: The Win pool. My understanding is that there’s a lot of other wagering actions taking place during the betting cycle of the same race.

When thinking in these terms, I believe the mistake that most make is trying to evaluate the meaning of limited Win Pool betting in conjunction with trying to make a final decision about their related handicapped selection (or selections).
The ONLY use I have for the Odds is to determine whether (or not) the contenders I’ve already chosen offer some potential value for profit. I could really care less about how the odds might reflect the probability of winning the race. I take the odds rising and falling is just like a barometer for playability.
.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

honesty is ringing through my ears
love it

this means ur close thas !!!

almost there

authenticity that is all that its about

shouldn't hurt you to admit the truth

nicely done

I would not say you explain yourself or your ideas well. But I'm starting to think you do have some knowledge. And that beneath all that bluster, there is a nice guy.

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I would not say you explain yourself or your ideas well. But I'm starting to think you do have some knowledge. And that beneath all that bluster there is a nice guy.

translating from my head to the paper
has been my achilles heel my whole life
( would have been the worst writer on the planet)

i basically got a 2-1 for one deal the other way

so my strength became the mathematical side
and i use it to its full advantages !!!


anyway thanks for the shout out mountain

hopefully we can put it all behind us


maybe will do some lines together down the road

mm

[Stevecsd2]

Highest winnings at $122K
Best jockey
High pedigree