Trainer Past Performances

[Gakiss2]

Originally Posted by cj

Formulator has customizable trainer past performances that show every running line for up to five years under all conditions and can be filtered to show the ones you want to see.

I suppose we ultimately decide on a running style by looking at the pattern a horse prefers (or is taken) over several races. Perhaps we can do something similar with trainers using the Trainer PPs from Formulator.
I will explore it.

Thank You

[andicap]

My problem with trainer stats has always been how inconsistent they are. Trainer shows great record one year with repeaters or FTS and the next year, zip.

To a large degree a trainer's record is based on the quality of the stock in his barn. But I do agree with Gus that tracking how well a conditioner goes with upgrading a new horse in his barn is one of the best ways to track his/her abilities. Also, important is how well a trainer does in keeping a horse sharp over a period of time. And yes,using pace/speed figures is more reliable than just their record.

One area I always noticed where there was a broad differential in abilities was on the turf.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by andicap

My problem with trainer stats has always been how inconsistent they are. Trainer shows great record one year with repeaters or FTS and the next year, zip.

To a large degree a trainer's record is based on the quality of the stock in his barn. But I do agree with Gus that tracking how well a conditioner goes with upgrading a new horse in his barn is one of the best ways to track his/her abilities. Also, important is how well a trainer does in keeping a horse sharp over a period of time. And yes,using pace/speed figures is more reliable than just their record.

One area I always noticed where there was a broad differential in abilities was on the turf.

Andy,

Your point is exactly right.

That's why we use more data (3.5 years seems to be optimum) and make it specific to the circuit. (i.e. NYRA, SoCal, SoFlo, etc.)



The specific issue you mentioned - turf - is because from one year to the next most trainer's turf stats are based upon the horses in their barn.

Furthermore, a particular trainer may have good turf horses at (say) GG but not at SA.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by andicap

My problem with trainer stats has always been how inconsistent they are. Trainer shows great record one year with repeaters or FTS and the next year, zip.

To a large degree a trainer's record is based on the quality of the stock in his barn. But I do agree with Gus that tracking how well a conditioner goes with upgrading a new horse in his barn is one of the best ways to track his/her abilities. Also, important is how well a trainer does in keeping a horse sharp over a period of time. And yes,using pace/speed figures is more reliable than just their record.

One area I always noticed where there was a broad differential in abilities was on the turf.

I agree.

A lot of it is stock and random noise. Then as the sample accumulates and you can be more certain the pattern is a legitimate strength or weakness, the prices slowly change and and there's no value.

The one thing that has been consistently valuable over my entire experience as a gambler is tracking who the "move up" trainers are. But even that is much more difficult now because so many people have a database or use Formulator etc.. Even the brand new trainers get pounded at the windows as soon as there's any evidence they are moving horses up.