Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
My problem with trainer stats has always been how inconsistent they are. Trainer shows great record one year with repeaters or FTS and the next year, zip.
To a large degree a trainer's record is based on the quality of the stock in his barn. But I do agree with Gus that tracking how well a conditioner goes with upgrading a new horse in his barn is one of the best ways to track his/her abilities. Also, important is how well a trainer does in keeping a horse sharp over a period of time. And yes,using pace/speed figures is more reliable than just their record.
One area I always noticed where there was a broad differential in abilities was on the turf.
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Andy,
Your point is exactly right.
That's why we use more data (3.5 years seems to be optimum) and make it specific to the circuit. (i.e. NYRA, SoCal, SoFlo, etc.)
The specific issue you mentioned - turf - is because from one year to the next most trainer's turf stats are based upon the horses in their barn.
Furthermore, a particular trainer may have good turf horses at (say) GG but not at SA.