Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-07-2022, 08:32 PM   #16
westernmassbob
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 436
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Handle could well be down at Saratoga, last year's handle was a record by a substantial margin, but the economy is low as far as a possible factor for that. Weather will always be the biggest issue. Lose two Saturdays to rain and you can't be up. Field size is clearly the second biggest factor. Those two variables are also linked.

If field size is the same as 2021, and the weather is comparable, we will likely do similar numbers. Those, however, are big ifs.
Can’t NYRA bring back the purse enhancement program they once had to prevent scratching due to weather?

Would it make sense to offer some sort of guaranteed purse for running on an off track day ? The additional revenue from the mutuels would seem to more then cover the extra purse money.
westernmassbob is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-07-2022, 11:36 PM   #17
Al Gobbi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 996
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
The small ups and and downs in the economy don't matter and probably won't factor at Saratoga this year at all, but the 2008-2011 period was a disaster for racing overall when we were in a deep recession and jobs hadn't really recovered. We still haven't gotten back to those peak levels. To me that suggests we are still in a large secular decline that was somewhat masked in recent years by the recovery from that recession period.

I haven't seen data going way back, but jobs have to matter, just not right now.

That's why I am very interested to see what happens in the next serious economic decline (that we may be getting close to with the Fed tightening). If it's as bad as the last one and the impact on handle as bad, a lot of tracks are going to be in trouble.

https://www.jockeyclub.com/default.a...tion=FB&area=8
Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur
Al Gobbi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2022, 03:54 AM   #18
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Gobbi View Post
Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur
IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2022, 10:50 AM   #19
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.
Good stuff.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2022, 11:11 AM   #20
Bustin Stones
Registered User
 
Bustin Stones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
But, is it possible that tbred racing has done nothing wrong and is doing nothing wrong?
The number of casinos continues to grow. The number of competing forms of gambling with strong advertising behind them continues to grow.
It could all be a factor of dilution of gambling dollars. And what has racing done differently to lure money away from this tidal wave of competition?
Even the networks are programming analysts who do nothing but gab about betting opportunities that don't involve racing.
Most grandstands are pretty empty. Racing is generally not considered a destination activity like it was. The charm is lost when we don't attend live racing. It's reduced to a wager. Nothing wrong with that except it's a lost former advantage.
And casino owners certainly aren't going to invest in a product that would require additional subsidy. They'd prefer that the required subsidy cease to exist entirely.
Maybe the question should not be what went wrong. Maybe the question should be what is being tried to better compete with newer competition. It seems like whatever that is should be done on a national scale.
Bustin Stones is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 08:51 AM   #21
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
Quote:
Originally Posted by westernmassbob View Post
There are people( probably most) on here who actually believe Saratoga’s attendance and on track wagering won’t be down this year. Inflation is a recipe for disaster and history has already shown us what the outcome will be. Hopefully for everyone’s sake it’s as minimal as possible but to think there will be zero impact from the economy is preposterous.
Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 08:59 AM   #22
westernmassbob
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 436
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.
Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.
westernmassbob is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 10:01 AM   #23
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
Quote:
Originally Posted by westernmassbob View Post
Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.
I'm not the producer, genius, and talk about what they tell us to talk about.

Tough first weekend for you rooting against my picks. Don't worry, I'll suck plenty of days, so don't take the good days too hard.

Given your moronic predictions, you should have posted this weekend's numbers. The people that run the Horseshoe said Saturday was the busiest day they have EVER had, including Travers. As I tried to explain to you, only weather can, and possibly will, ruin our numbers. Comparable weather to 2021 and we will easily surpass those record numbers.

Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 10:17 AM   #24
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,180
Saucy little guy = BEST little guy
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 11:25 AM   #25
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-20-2022 at 11:31 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 12:36 PM   #26
Brisk Urging
Veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 324
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.

The debate is getting old.
Brisk Urging is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 12:48 PM   #27
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brisk Urging View Post
The debate is getting old.
It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-20-2022 at 12:54 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 02:27 PM   #28
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.
apt comparison
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 04:56 PM   #29
ScottJ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2022
Posts: 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).
First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.
ScottJ is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2022, 05:48 PM   #30
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ View Post
First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.
I know he was an options trader.

The debates in horse racing should be about figures, trips, biases, distance, surface etc.. and the fair odds on each horse. After that, it's a matter of choosing the right pool, right bet size, and right bet structure to maximize your results given your opinions on the races, bankroll, and psychological makeup.

The fact that people are still debating some of the basics of which pool to go into and how to structure their bets is telling you the math of betting is not well understood. That includes some very sharp handicappers. IMO, that's because most of us were trained poorly and have flawed "survival" instincts. I should know because I turned years where I showed flat bet profits to win into losing years on multiple occasions in my youth. Then I started learning how to bet.

ITP could use an improved beside manor when offering insights into bet structure to people that are making mistakes, but IMO he's got the right approach.

Someone on Twitter mentioned black belt and white belt ticket structure.

Even a white belt player can improve their results with better ticket structure.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-20-2022 at 06:00 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.