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02-28-2020, 10:27 AM
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#1
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Projected odds in DRF PPs
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02-28-2020, 10:34 AM
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#2
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,686
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Beat me to it!
Seems like a cool idea!
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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02-28-2020, 11:13 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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Nice addition!
I have a pretty good guess about who did a lot of the research and development of these algorithms. That means they are GOOD.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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02-28-2020, 01:04 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Will this finally put the ML-maker out of business?
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Live to play another day.
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02-28-2020, 01:07 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Louisville
Posts: 278
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I'm happy to see others are starting to implement this as well.
Hopefully more ADWs will implement it as well now that a second one has.
__________________
Jason Martin
IT Director
AmWest Entertainment - AmWager
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02-28-2020, 01:45 PM
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#6
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Double Talk.
I like them already.
Quote:
As soon as betting pools open for a race, until 10 MTP, we use an algorithm that relies primarily on the Daily Double pool.
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Quote:
At 10 MTP, shorter-priced horses’ odds are further enhanced, combining the earlier projection with the latest updates from the win pool
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Quote:
At 5 MTP, projected odds lock in. See for yourself why they are far more predictive than the current live odds
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02-28-2020, 02:18 PM
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#7
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DJ M.Walk
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,066
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20,000 races is a pretty low sample size!
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02-28-2020, 04:53 PM
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#8
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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I don't see them in the paper edition
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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02-28-2020, 05:20 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I don't see them in the paper edition
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Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.
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02-28-2020, 07:09 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
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Really nice addition in my opinion, I'm not sure what the accuracy looks like relative to final odds but I definitely appreciate the effort. What I would expect to see as a next step would be the ability to tie the 5 MTP locked in odds to a conditional wager in the win pool because for those of us with day jobs it could be a bit of a game-changer. Certainly looking forward to MTH's fixed odds offering to be sure but this move by the DRF is something to stir up some excitement too and at more tracks.
Last edited by MJC922; 02-28-2020 at 07:11 PM.
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02-28-2020, 09:25 PM
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#11
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.
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look up.
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02-28-2020, 10:21 PM
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#12
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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DRF Product Launch Marketing.
This twitter message is probably not something I'd recommend if I was in the marketing meeting.
Quote:
Late Odds changes are obviously frustrating for horseplayers, but it's also annoying to hear analysts ooh & ahhh over early live odds fluctuations that are unlikely to mean much once all of the money is in. It's misleading and lazy--kudos to those who already avoid that trap.
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02-29-2020, 10:10 AM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.
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Well DUH!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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02-29-2020, 11:12 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,655
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useful feature if their crowing proves justified. time will tell. i'm open, but have questions and misgivings.
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02-29-2020, 01:12 PM
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#15
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Smart feature. Good idea.
Useful for most players.
There will be an occasional outlier, but this will be very accurate in general and in terms of significance.
Positive for the INTEGRITY of the sport itself. May sound like hot air, but when a winner's odds drop in the last flash, 85% of the time you will be able to say "but, DRF Odds-Projector predicted that would happen".
Conveying that info to the weekend warrior goes a long way to solving a decent sized slice of the constant late-odds complaints and integrity questions.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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