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Old 11-28-2021, 10:43 AM   #16
Spalding No!
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
If I was handling Midnight Bourbon I’d look for a soft spot to get a win and then head back into the deeper waters. He has been having a tough time getting into the winners circle, but he’s been competitive with the best 3yos in the country who themselves looked very deep and were just competitive in the Classic other than getting outrun by the HOTY. If that doesn’t work, they can try a mile.
Midnight Bourbon veered in a bobbled sharply right out of the gate; couldn't find a head-on replay, but he might have been getting out the rest of the way, too (he also took up a bit when cleared by Maxfield). Wouldn't be surprised if he gets an extended break.

At any rate, he'll probably follow a Tenfold or Snapper Sinclair career trajectory. Nothing wrong with eating at Waffle House and Cracker Barrel...
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Old 11-28-2021, 11:23 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
If I was handling Midnight Bourbon I’d look for a soft spot to get a win and then head back into the deeper waters. He has been having a tough time getting into the winners circle, but he’s been competitive with the best 3yos in the country who themselves looked very deep and were just competitive in the Classic other than getting outrun by the HOTY. If that doesn’t work, they can try a mile.
Hey, if he's going to face paceless 6-8 horse fields, he could earn a lot holding onto thirds most of the time.


I don't know whether it was the horse or the rider that behaved badly in the Clark. For whatever reason, he missed a golden opportunity to try to win. He probably wouldn't have won, given that Maxfield ran his race and he didn't run particularly well, but for two thirds of the race he would have been in contention.
Entering the first turn in the Clark, he needed Maxfield to not show up, in order to have a chance. The race was significantly changed with Ortiz and Maxfield sitting in perfect position after the break was squandered.


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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Midnight Bourbon veered in a bobbled sharply right out of the gate; couldn't find a head-on replay, but he might have been getting out the rest of the way, too (he also took up a bit when cleared by Maxfield). Wouldn't be surprised if he gets an extended break.
well, hopefully it's not an injury issue.



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I thought he'd win yesterday, but I'm off that horse. He has now lost ground from the stretch call to the finish in every single race he's ever run other than his maiden win. That is not something you want to see from a top racehorse.
Same here, CJ.
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Old 11-28-2021, 12:06 PM   #18
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I don't know if I buy that "he had more in reserve" theory in his wins when he conveniently didn't display any extra reserve when facing higher quality rivals.

Looking back at his overall record, where his true form may have been blunted was in his last 2 starts. What were they thinking putting blinkers on that horse? That was a terrible decision.

As you suggest, his best weapon was his turn of foot (and his apparent ability to overcome his rider's wasteful wide sweeps when uncorking it). Did they really think the absence of blinkers is what led to Maxfield getting his head ripped off by Knicks Go?

I'd say the presence of blinkers is what led to Maxfield getting his head ripped off by Art Collector in the Woodward. Now instead of having a horse that always broke sharp, settled nicely midpack, responded push-button, and accelerated on the turn while traveling wide, they got a horse that would not settle, a rider with his feet on the dashboard down the backstretch, getting shuffled back around the turn when the push-button response did not materialize, before toiling with a struggling 2nd tier colt (Dr. Post) down the lane to save the place. Great job connections. Just made Art Collector look like a contender in the BC Classic (where'd he finish?)

.
IMO the “more in reserve” view of racing is wildly misunderstood.

Most people look at the end of the race to determine whether the horse was all out or won easily. That’s not what I am talking about.

Most horses that win very easily are horses that got great trips or that totally overmatched a much weaker field. Some of those are legitimately capable of running faster, but many of those will actually run slower with a tougher trip or move up in class. A horse’s overall record and figures against quality horses can sometimes be a clue as to what you are dealing with, but with very lightly raced horses it’s tougher (at least for me).

What I am talking about is horses that just put themselves into position to win and then typically get the job done or run really well driving at the end.

IMO, horses like that can sometimes get into position to win even if the pace is a little faster and still finish close to as well. In either case they are driving to the finish, but the final time varies a little by how fast they ran early to get into position. Cheaper horses will slow down if worked harder. Quality horses with some energy in reserve are capable of running a couple of ticks faster until you break their limit.

I’m an Art Collector fan. I was glad he recovered his form this year and moved forward, but I hated him in the Classic. I didn’t see any scenario where he could chase a much faster speed like Knicks Go, put him away, and navigate 10F. He was the first horse I tossed even though I bet him in the prior win. But I still think he’s pretty good. It was just a terrible spot.
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Old 11-28-2021, 12:10 PM   #19
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If there is a horse out of there I think can do a lot better, its Dr Post and I wouldnt be ready to call him a 3rd stringer just yet.
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Old 11-28-2021, 03:21 PM   #20
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If there is a horse out of there I think can do a lot better, its Dr Post and I wouldnt be ready to call him a 3rd stringer just yet.
He's not getting any younger and he's 0-for-6 in his Grade 1 races. He's had 2 significant layoffs in his career and comes from a barn that usually burns horses out by their 4yo year.

He seems like he has enough of a resume to earn stallion status (outside Kentucky anyways) so it will be interesting if he comes back out as a 5yo. The older horse division always needs all the help it can get.
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