Horse of the Year performance

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Lol, that's the reply? Funny but still.

You actually made me think about it in more detail rather than off the cuff. That's a good thing. I tried i be objective though I'm admittedly probably not 100% there. Essential Quality is still a fine choice IMO.

If you are reticent to choose Medina Spirit because of Baffert, which is fair, how do you weigh the owner of Essential Quality? I'm not making a judgement, but I think it's an issue that, for whatever reason, hasn't come up.

Personally, I think Yibir is a terrible choice, and the second, third, and fourth finishers in the Classic are all more deserving. I would even consider Jackie's Warrior and Life is Good. The BC Turf was not an all-time great race. The second choice scratched and the favorite was a total no show. The runner up won a horrendous Group 1 earlier in the year. Fun race to watch, but not a great running of the race.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

If you are reticent to choose Medina Spirit because of Baffert, which is fair, how do you weigh the owner of Essential Quality? I'm not making a judgement, but I think it's an issue that, for whatever reason, hasn't come up.

Personally, I think Yibir is a terrible choice, and the second, third, and fourth finishers in the Classic are all more deserving. I would even consider Jackie's Warrior and Life is Good. The BC Turf was not an all-time great race. The second choice scratched and the favorite was a total no show. The runner up won a horrendous Group 1 earlier in the year. Fun race to watch, but not a great running of the race.

dude killing his daughter, among many, not = to money cheated out of my wallet by drugged horses.

i know thats ****ed up but it is what it is i guess.

In off the track life though i dont think you can classify Baffert in the same world as the sheik

[iamt]

The owner of Essential Quality has had nothing to do with the performances of the horse.


The trainer of Medina Spirit had a whole lot to do with the performance of the horse, particularly an enhanced performance in the Derby.


If you're judging only the horses, there is a fair difference between the two.

[Robert Fischer]

you've got award show stuff

and you've got horseplayer's opinions


i'm clueless with award show stuff, and I'm not perfect on horseplayer stuff. but at no point was Medina Spirit ever the the best 3yo racehorse.

He's a super cool 3yo.
He was a distant 2nd-string to Life is Good, he won the Derby in large part to setup, where silly public was thinking that Rock Your World would somehow wire or collapse, what turned out to be a rather merry-go-round race.

Baffert has had to lay low slightly but then mostly re-emerged, and Medina was now his top 3yo and having those advantages.

He won a couple easy races in Cali.

Then he never threatened the winner in the BC Classic...

Knicks Go is awesome, but he didn't dust Medina on some 'four year old maturity' thing...
Knicks Go dusted Medina Spirit because they played a 'win-win' game rather than a challenge.

Essential Quality was better in the Derby, and better all year.

Life is Good whimped out in part due to issues and greenness, but he was still way better and more brilliant...

Hot Rod Charlie has stretched hot-takes to try to argue for him... IF anything Hot Rod Charlie is a 'warrior', but realistically is in that 'B' tier with Medina Spirit.


Awards? Sure... I'm not familiar w/ the awards stuff, and he probably checks those boxes and the 'Baffert bad-guy' drama makes it interesting, but he's either not really the best 3yo, or he's best by such a slim margin in someone's perspective of an unaspiring crop

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

If you are reticent to choose Medina Spirit because of Baffert, which is fair, how do you weigh the owner of Essential Quality? I'm not making a judgement, but I think it's an issue that, for whatever reason, hasn't come up.

Personally, I think Yibir is a terrible choice, and the second, third, and fourth finishers in the Classic are all more deserving. I would even consider Jackie's Warrior and Life is Good. The BC Turf was not an all-time great race. The second choice scratched and the favorite was a total no show. The runner up won a horrendous Group 1 earlier in the year. Fun race to watch, but not a great running of the race.

Of course I think it is horrible what the owner has done to his daughter. I have spent too much time in that part of the world and I hate the way the leaders treat people, especially women and also those they use as slave labor and often basically hold hostage. But nobody is banning them from racing and they aren't accused of failing drug tests with the horses that could win awards.

Meanwhile, Churchill Downs has banned Baffert and NYRA is doing everything they can to do the same. It also isn't just because of Baffert. I'll vote for Corniche. It is that Medina Spirit is THE horse in question with the Derby. Given the way Baffert acted in the aftermath, I don't believe there wasn't something nefarious going on. I'm also still a little scarred from voting for Maximum Security. Everything in my gut told me not do it, but I did it anyway. I don't really believe Medina Spirit is in that same class, but I don't think it was some silly oversight either.

I agreed Yibir isn't the best pick, that is why I said Essential Quality is a good choice. I'm not counting the Derby for Medina Spirit, and I think Essential Quality's resume is way better otherwise. He won the two signature races put on by the best and biggest racing circuit in the country. Throw in the Jim Dandy, Blue Grass, and Southwest. Compare that to the Lewis, Shared Belief, and Awesome Again. It isn't close for me. Medina Spirit failed every big test outside the Derby...SA Derby, Preakness, Classic. He also couldn't beat Life Is Good a few times.

Head to heads don't mean much to me when neither horse wins the race, especially when separated by less than a length, so the Classic is a minor piece to me. I've always felt that way, not just backfitting it to suit my agenda.

Maybe Life Is Good will show up in the Cigar. I'm sure he probably won't, but a win there and I could be swayed to go with him.

[classhandicapper]

IMO Life Is Good is the most talented 3yo in the country. I say that partially because he beat Medina Spirit twice, once by a huge margin and once by less when eased a bit prematurely. Medina Spirit has since proven his "drug free" quality and LIG is still moving forward the way you hope a lightly raced 3yo will. IMO, LIG hasn't done enough to deserve the award, but it's kind of ironic that the former Baffert horse may have done enough to prevent the current one from getting 3yo of the year. If Medina Spirit won both those races, it might be a little harder to deny him even though they weren't Grade 1s. He'd have a pretty good resume.

[rgustafson]

Craig,

I always thought that the TFUS race ratings were pretty important. The two races before the Classic, Travers and Jim Dandy for Essential Quality had race ratings of 123 and 117. Medina Spirit's two races had race ratings of 125 and 119. The two horses won all four of those races. The Belmont, of course, was the best race of Essential Quality's career and had a race rating of 125 (same as the Awesome Again). Also the only race at 1 1/2 miles so we have no direct comparison for the two horses. The next race back was the Kentucky Derby which you are ignoring. I choose to ignore the Preakness. The two races before the Derby for Essential Quality were the Bluegrass and the Southwest with race ratings of 111 and 113. Medina Spirit's two races before the Derby were the Santa Anita Derby and the San Felipe with race ratings of 116 and 121, both higher than Essential quality' races. Essential Quality won his races and Medina Spirit ran second in his. The race rating listed for the Classic was 130. Comparing TFUS speed rating for the above races for the two horses come close to averaging out. Am I all wrong looking at the race ratings this way?

Bob

[cj]

Originally Posted by rgustafson

Craig,

I always thought that the TFUS race ratings were pretty important. The two races before the Classic, Travers and Jim Dandy for Essential Quality had race ratings of 123 and 117. Medina Spirit's two races had race ratings of 125 and 119. The two horses won all four of those races. The Belmont, of course, was the best race of Essential Quality's career and had a race rating of 125 (same as the Awesome Again). Also the only race at 1 1/2 miles so we have no direct comparison for the two horses. The next race back was the Kentucky Derby which you are ignoring. I choose to ignore the Preakness. The two races before the Derby for Essential Quality were the Bluegrass and the Southwest with race ratings of 111 and 113. Medina Spirit's two races before the Derby were the Santa Anita Derby and the San Felipe with race ratings of 116 and 121, both higher than Essential quality' races. Essential Quality won his races and Medina Spirit ran second in his. The race rating listed for the Classic was 130. Comparing TFUS speed rating for the above races for the two horses come close to averaging out. Am I all wrong looking at the race ratings this way?

Bob

I have made it a point in past years to say specifically I don't really pay attention to TimeformUS speed figures when it comes to Eclipse Awards, it is about accomplishments. Of course betting is a different story.

[Robert Fischer]

Yibir was lovely.

Don't get me wrong - I'm a peasant. I don't have any competence in politics, or any leverage, or care! lol, into the the drama stories.

Small little bit of competence in horse racing, and when I see a really well meant Godolphin, or Baffert, Cox, Brown, Asmussen, Wests, Flying P, Hronis,.. and that list that could fill this page if I had better meds or incentives.. that long long list ...

My Focus is to think along with changes, and mostly focus due diligence on the significant factors that drive the handicapping of a horse race evaluation and value.

Give me Barry Bonds, or Ted Williams, or Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, or Ichiro, etc... and I get past the locker-room flexing and the measurables and we look at the swing, balance, mental approach, working the count, does he smash a first pitch fastball? does he focus on getting to 2-0, 3-1?? if he's grounding out does he lower his sights? Is he doing something like extra bp with those little golf whiffle-balls from close range or playing pepper like a Wagner or Cobb??

YIbir was a lot of fun in that he galloped behind the Jockey Club Derby slow setup and then just circled the field on whim.
Wasn't a sustained grind or something. Didn't get a setup.
I'm subscribed to TFUS Monthly but that 118 earned him '1' check mark, and I'm sure his Beyer was also sub-par ... i did dig into thte TFUS chart function and watch the race a bunch of time.
dID NOt actaually 'graph' the Fat Chart, but that's ingraind somewhere in a remnant of working brain cell. The RPR 123 OK, nd the 'OR' London thing was only '117' (btw i find those nice occasionally blend in with the liste Time Form) ... - but clearly Godolphin's recent contingent has been 'well' meant of the finest care

After some robberies, after a disappointing Jackie's Warrior, and after some of my own mistakes burned by lack of vast spread coverage over vulnerable favorites, Yibir's repeat of the Belmont Derby was enough to win a weak BC Turf and get back a few dollars.

Reminded me of 'fat charts'

and then with the weird 'cold' board action on what I felt was a near-lock in Knicks Go....

All-in-All Yibir was my highlight of the weekend!

IDGAF about the stories and all that stuff. That's media telling me something, that I don't care or have the slightest competence or insight to critically investigate.

The thing that is neat to me, is the always fun debate of 'setups' vs raw 'needed' speed figs.
Vast amount of time the speed figs prove more significant.

There's something for everyone on these big events, and it's part of what makes racing so great, and in today's social-media era it's an even underdeveloped potential market share for our sport.

I'm a a peasant and a horseplaying nerd. I don't have sponsorships, (I have a moderate Palistinian/Israeli fiance' who believes gambling is haram much less finer points of the political drama) I have no interest or incentive to virtue-signal, but I can still greatly appreciate the potential for growth in political aspects of our sports and our super-owners.

Great multi-faceted game. I love it.

but I love the Yibir win in the Turf and the Belmnont Derby! and I hope if my my old friend "Fat_Man" "Setup" still dabbles between his cycle coaching and musician training, that he also got a Thrill

/warning i had a sip of sleepytime tea before posting)

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Coming down the stretch, it looked like he just started running...impressive

NO ONE was going to go with him, nor press him later. all the "other" speed behind him however.