Medina's performance enha.nced Spirit returns today

[dilanesp]

In the Shared Belief, against Rock Your World. Are you curious to see how he does? I am

[GaryG]

Rock Your World is going to drown him like he did in the SA Derby.

[rastajenk]

Performance-enhanced my ass.

[Robert Fischer]

Rock Your World has been training better than in the past.

Medina Spirit looks tough, and should be on the lead. Will be fun to see. Some potential to clear and get loose. Also a chance that others harass and/or the tries to break, chase, and go 'mano o mano' at some point

Doug O'Neil (uncoupled ) looks outclassed, but both horses capable of running a good race.

Team Merchants tickles my funnybone just a bit... Broke Maiden last year at Saratoga was playable at a fair price that day at 6:1. 8 months off, Nightmare 6F Turf attempt, comes back 75 days and at an overlooked 18-1 basically 'circled' a solid Mark Glatt favorite. Looks like a 'bear' in his recent works.
Faces a couple established stakes horses today.

[dilanesp]

Not bad.

[classhandicapper]

100 Beyer.

I wonder how much better he's going to get. I don't think he's improved much from early in the year. If he doesn't jump up soon, eventually he's going to be overmatched against the best in the division.

[CheckMark]

Race replay:

https://youtu.be/HHAI2fi1vd8

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

100 Beyer.

I wonder how much better he's going to get. I don't think he's improved much from early in the year. If he doesn't jump up soon, eventually he's going to be overmatched against the best in the division.

Do you think he has fully matured or do you think that he might fill out a bit more going into year four? Of course, that is also taking into account that his current ownership allows him to run at four.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

100 Beyer.

I wonder how much better he's going to get. I don't think he's improved much from early in the year. If he doesn't jump up soon, eventually he's going to be overmatched against the best in the division.

In his defense, this was a prep race, off a layoff. He might not have been fully cranked. Plus, he felt some real pace pressure.

(Oh, and also, he might not have gotten the right pharmaceuticals. )

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

In his defense, this was a prep race, off a layoff. He might not have been fully cranked. Plus, he felt some real pace pressure.

(Oh, and also, he might not have gotten the right pharmaceuticals. )

The one thing I like about him is that he seems to have a higher cruising speed than most other horses with similar ability. When he goes out fast he tires a little late but so do the horses chasing him. The Preakness was the one exception, but who knows what was going on during that period.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The one thing I like about him is that he seems to have a higher cruising speed than most other horses with similar ability. When he goes out fast he tires a little late but so do the horses chasing him. The Preakness was the one exception, but who knows what was going on during that period.

My theory (I know, I know), is that the effect of the PED's is to allow these horses to survive fast paces in route races. Think of Game on Dude at his best. Or Justify. Or Authentic. In all of those cases, what you would see is a horse facing pace pressure and then drawing off anyway. It's not that this never happens without the PED's- there are celebrated examples of it (one that was locally famous in Southern California was Riva Ridge in the 1972 Hollywood Derby, where several different horses engaged him and he just fought them all off for 1 1/4 miles). But the number of different Baffert stakes stars who managed to do this is, to my mind, extremely suspicious. And, by the way, Maximum Security, whom we pretty much know Servis was doping, did the same thing.

So of course, who knows what Medina Spirit is or isn't getting now. But his Derby performance looks like a typical Baffert Derby performance- all those horses (including Essential Quality, who is clearly the best 3 year old in the country!) lined right up alongside of him at the top of the stretch, and he just pulled away the last 3/16th of a mile. That's the external help.

[mike_123_ca]

Don't blame Baffert for PED's ... It's contaminated feed or cough syrup swilling grooms urinating in stalls or cancel culture or (insert latest excuse here)

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

(one that was locally famous in Southern California was Riva Ridge in the 1972 Hollywood Derby, where several different horses engaged him and he just fought them all off for 1 1/4 miles).

How do you know he wasn't jacked up?

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's the external help.

Prove it.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

How do you know he wasn't jacked up?

I don't, actually.

Look, there's actually know way to know whether previous generations of racing were clean. But that's all the more reason to be cynical and skeptical about what goes on right now.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Do you think he has fully matured or do you think that he might fill out a bit more going into year four? Of course, that is also taking into account that his current ownership allows him to run at four.

I mostly look at the horse's development race to race.

Some pedigrees seem to develop earlier or later than others, 2yo and 3yo fillies tend to mature faster than colts, turf horses tend to keep developing later than dirt horses (soundness?), certain connections do a better job of developing horses long term, lightly raced horses are more likely to develop etc..

IMO, he looks like he's making slow steady progress but losing ground to some of the best 3yos that are improving faster. His next start should tell us a lot. Maybe he'll jump up 2nd off the layoff and reassert himself among the leaders of the division, but I won't be betting on it.