2 negative class drops same race

[porchy44]

July 8, 2011 River Downs Race (7)

I love these type of races. This is a $5,000 claiming race.

#2 was claimed for $50,000 less than 3 months ago. (Final odds 3/5)
#8 had just ran second by a head in a $30,000 claiming race less than
a month ago (final odds 3/1)

For a bettor that can spot "damaged goods", you will not see many opportunities like this.

Results

Winner #4 (final odds 17/1)
Place #9 (final odds 9/2)

I Thank Tom Brohamer again in his book Modern Pace Handicapping (the chapter about negative class drops) in which I read many years ago.

[Robert Goren]

There are a few "super trainers" who win with negative class drops all the time.

[Khanjar]

I also had read Tom Brohamer's book (Modern Pace Handicapping) many years ago, and again recently. The chapter on Negative Drops always stuck with me.

I tried to learn to love them as horses to bet against, but found that difficult, since they often look so great on paper. They do often win, and I have yet to see one carted off the track. So making wagering decisions in those races was sometimes an agonizing experience.

Then I faced a race at PEN that had two ND's. I really liked one for the win and the other for place. Analysis paralysis and ND fear syndrome caused me to sit on my hands and just watch the race. They came in 1-2. Cost me over $2,000 in Exacta, Tri and Super payouts.

So I developed an approach that works for me. Now, I do not fear having ND's in a race. Simply, if the ND has a Hambleton Form Point score that is in the top four for the race, I treat it like any other entrant. If it doesn't rank in top four in Hambleton Form, I will still use it, but not as a prime choice. Part of the reasoning is that Hambleton Form Points deducts three points for ND, so if it still ranks high after such a big point deduction then I consider it a play.

May be too simple for some sophisticates, but, for now at least, I am comfortable with it.

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by porchy44

July 8, 2011 River Downs Race (7)


#8 had just ran second by a head in a $30,000 claiming race less than
a month ago (final odds 3/1)

For what its worth, this race was in 2010, not 2011; as was it's most recent race, June 27 @ CD, 2010. So it had been off over a year.

Not trying to contradict your point. Clearly there are times when back class should be ignored. Just wanted to set the facts straight.

[Khanjar]

Immediately after my post above, I played the first race at Calder. It included a Negative Class Drop, #8 at 4-5. The horse qualified as a play for me because even with the 3-point ND deduction it was still a top four Hambleton Form Points horse. It won.

Due to the low odds, I would have passed the race except that the other two horses I liked for an Exacta play were (#1) 5-1 and (#7) 26-1. I typically play Exactas AB/ABC, so in this race I played 1,8/1,7,8. I also played the Trifecta the same way, with two additional entries in the Show position. They finished 8-7-1.

So I had a 26-1 under a 4-5 for a winning Exacta and Trifecta! Except the race stewards had an inquiry and disqualified the 7 for interfering with another horse that never had a chance anyway and finished off the board. Bad racing luck for me.

Anyway, porchy, your point about ND's providing some prime betting opportunities is well taken, and I agree. They are especially nice because they often are bet so low that other strong win candidates become overlays.

But they also often win. Brohamer says in his book that they "occasionally" win, but it seems to me that they often win. So what to do? I would never place a win bet on a ND. But since in Exactas I typically play two horses on top, I don't mind if one of them is a ND with high Hambleton Form Points. Because the ND absorbs so much of the wager money, the place candidate will often be an overlay, so a play is still feasibe, as in today's first race at Calder (but for those stewards).

BTW, of the 10 races at Calder today, there were five Steward Inquiries, that resulted in three disqualifications. Seems a bit much.