TLG vs. CMOORE

[juanepstein]

ill give you guys a two week head start then ill join in.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by juanepstein

ill give you guys a two week head start then ill join in.

..We're off to a fast start..

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 9th

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[tucker6]

It would be interesting to see what a dart board could do against trained handicappers. That would show how much luck is in the numbers being produced.

[markgoldie]

Brisnet Prime Power top selection:

Wed. 10/7: Winners: R1 Winthrop House $3.60; R3 R. Betty Graybill $3.50; R5 Ms. Thanksgiving $5.70; R8 Stevic $3.30

Thurs. 10/8: Winners: R4 Zapster $3.60; R5 O' So Pretty $4.80; R6 Australia's Princess $18.00

Two Day Total: 18 races; Investment $36; Win return $42.40; Win %: 38.88%; ROI +17.77%

Note: The Brisnet PP number has a disadvantage in that it is unable to ever select a first time starter since it has no numbers to go by on such horses.

[PaceAdvantage]

TLG's picks are up for Friday, pre-scratch:

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml

[markgoldie]

Question of format: In posting an entry as a top pick, there is a problem with listing both horses as the selection. In the event that the preferred part of the entry is scratched, this saddles the selector with the other half of the entry who may be far inferior and would not be the selector's pick. In such case, he should be allowed to consider his next selection as his top pick for the race. Therefore, the selector should note the top selection only and indicate in parenthesis that the horse is a POE (part of entry). If the other part of the entry is actually the selector's second choice, the horse should be listed separately as the second selection. For example, (POE) - (POE) - 3 - 7, etc.

We understand that if someone were to bet the entry and the weaker half wins, you still cash the ticket. However, this is a contest of handicapping prowess. Therefore, fairness dictates that the selector not be penalized for a scratch of his favored entry half, nor should he be rewarded when a non-favored entry half somehow wins. This, of course, is predicated on the format that TLG is using. If he is simply listing the entry as his selection, then Chris will have to do the same. However, most public handicappers know that their followers need to understand which half of the entry is their actual selection.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by tucker6

It would be interesting to see what a dart board could do against trained handicappers. That would show how much luck is in the numbers being produced.

In the interest of creating a control group, I'll select the horse in every race today. The selection was done without any review of the race cards or anyone else's selections.

My comments are not meant to cast aspersions on the abilities of the two contestants. They know more than me. It is meant to show what score would be if you picked the same number horse in each race. It may show interesting results.

[PaceAdvantage]

Day 3 Results:

TLG | 1 for 9 | $6.30 | -$11.70
1) Second
2) Sixth
3) Fifth
4) First $6.30
5) Second by a neck at 28-1
6) Fourth
7) Second
8) Second
9) Eighth
TLG Totals | 4 for 27 | 15% | $54 Bet | $28 Return | -$26 Profit | -48% ROI

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CMOORE | 2 for 9 | $14.20 | -$3.80
1) Third
2) Eleventh
3) First $3.60
4) Second
5) Third
6) First $10.60 -- Cold $65.50 exacta
7) Tenth
8) Fifth
9) Ninth
CMOORE Totals | 3 for 27 | 11% | $54 Bet | $17.50 Return | -$36.50 Profit | -68% ROI

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by tucker6

In the interest of creating a control group, I'll select the horse in every race today. The selection was done without any review of the race cards or anyone else's selections.

My comments are not meant to cast aspersions on the abilities of the two contestants. They know more than me. It is meant to show what score would be if you picked the same number horse in each race. It may show interesting results.

It would be more interesting to compare against the public favorite. Random selections have a low hit rate and horrible ROI...what's interesting about that?

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 10th

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[tucker6]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

It would be more interesting to compare against the public favorite. Random selections have a low hit rate and horrible ROI...what's interesting about that?

There's nothing interesting or useful about random picks except to remove any background noise/luck from the selection process. If a handicapper can attain a 7% ROI, and random picks has a -10% ROI, then that handicapper has a skill level 17% above the background noise. The point is that anyone can pick random numbers (the suckers at the track essentially pick at random), but how much better is the solid handicapper against that number.

I realize the point of this thread is to compare the skills of two particular bettors. I just thought it would be useful to see how much better they were against the once a year bettor who picks his horse because his wife likes the color red. That's all.

Your suggestion is a good one as well.

[markgoldie]

Brisnet Prime Power

Results for Friday, October 9:

Winners: R3 Bubbly Jane $3.60; R4 Paniolo $6.40; R7 Roaring Belle $7.00; R9 Frenchonionsoup $5.50. Wagered for day: $18; Return $22.50; Profit $4.50; ROI +25%.

Three day running totals: 27 races; Investment: $54; Return $64.90; Profit $10.90; ROI +20.18%; Win% 11 of 27 for 40.74%

ROI comparison:

Brisnet Prime Power: +20%
TLG: -48%
Cmoore: -68%

[PaceAdvantage]

I appreciate the feedback everyone, but I would also appreciate it if this thread could stay relatively uncluttered...so, if you'd like to start your own little tracking thread for BRIS Prime Power picks or whatever, please do...

I'd like for this thread to focus exclusively on TLG vs. Cmoore, just like the title says...

Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

TLG's picks are up for Saturday and have been recorded:

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml