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Old 01-29-2019, 07:15 PM   #31
delsully
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" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.
I had a problem with that also. A quick look at the will pays wouldn’t hurt, either.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:26 PM   #32
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Bris net was the ones that proposed to not bet anything over 10 to 1 in the place position on the exact. I would assume they base this upon some data
I hope to purchase my software again and download this and play it for the next 30 days. Starting tomorrow
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:30 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Appy View Post
" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.

I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
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Old 01-31-2019, 02:56 PM   #34
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I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
The question is not whether big longshots finish second but whether the probability of them finishing second are reflected in the payoffs. In my not so recent research I found that lower odds horses were underplayed in the underneath slots of verticals and longshots were overplayed. Doesn't mean it happened every time but far more often than not.
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Old 02-01-2019, 10:46 AM   #35
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I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.
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Old 02-01-2019, 11:23 AM   #36
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I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.
If longshots are substantially increasing their chances of finishing 2nd by 100% over finishing first which horses are substantially decreasing their chances to balance the equation?
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Old 02-02-2019, 01:31 AM   #37
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Well I tried my new software which is HTR and I had roughly about 20 plays. I let the software pick horses that were supposed to have and break even roi on the win and period from there I took all the closers for 2nd with that about a maximum of 3 horses plus any horse that was considered a value horse by the software and it punched and exacted today that paid I think $250. I had 5 winners and missed the 2nd place horse today. Which I think is an anomaly. So basically the day got saved by the one huge exacter. This is my black Box attempt and I think you're gonna do way Better if you put some handicapping into the place position. But the long shot that made up my big exact it was very difficult to come up with. He was not a closer.
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:44 AM   #38
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2 day results I'm up 11%....on 8k in bets. All of this is rebates. Using Courses in the when position with .98 and closers mostly for place. Only handicapped half the races. Most are black box. It should have been much more but I screwed up one of the bets. Monday and Tuesday I will actually handicap each race and see if that changes .
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:47 AM   #39
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Teddy, interesting subject. While I don't use a black box, my approach is usually some form of A-B-C exacta play. My A's are usually based on my home-grown tote play, B's are either a combo of speed improvement, fulcrum pace qualifier, or a secondary tote play if one occurs. C's can be a dominant early speed play, or just gut-shot that my handicapping points towards. If there's a strong looking favorite, I generally box it with an A. While I didn't mention closers, they're often included in some way by one of the ABC's.
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Old 02-03-2019, 12:07 PM   #40
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That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:42 PM   #41
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That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.
No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may be entirely accurate on that last point.
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Old 02-03-2019, 08:05 PM   #42
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No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may not be entirely accurate on that last point.
edited for clarification.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:28 PM   #43
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Well the roi on my win position horses was .84 today and I lost $150 on exacta wagers...... Makes perfect sense.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:32 AM   #44
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The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions.
Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:19 PM   #45
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From another thread... Ray 2000

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imofe

Using the same races and same picks for Exacta betting gives the following table of results.

Code:
Ticket		Return		ROI		Hits	Strike rate
A/B	 	$259,778 	1.020	 	10,287 	8.1%
A/BC	 	$258,522 	1.015	 	18,182 	14.3%
AB/AB	 	$258,390 	1.015	 	18,244 	14.3%
AB/ABC	 	$254,765 	1.000	 	31,374 	24.6%
A/BCD	 	$252,437 	0.991	 	24,268 	19.1%
Box3	 	$246,256 	0.967	 	41,026 	32.2%
BCD/A		$231,230 	0.908	 	16,735 	13.1%
Box4	 	$230,298 	0.904	 	62,920 	49.4%
Ray backtested his play...

This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...

My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.

.
Ray backtested his play...

This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...

My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.
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