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01-29-2019, 07:15 PM
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#31
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy
" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "
Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.
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I had a problem with that also. A quick look at the will pays wouldn’t hurt, either.
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01-31-2019, 12:26 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Bris net was the ones that proposed to not bet anything over 10 to 1 in the place position on the exact. I would assume they base this upon some data
I hope to purchase my software again and download this and play it for the next 30 days. Starting tomorrow
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01-31-2019, 01:30 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy
" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "
Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.
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I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
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01-31-2019, 02:56 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
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The question is not whether big longshots finish second but whether the probability of them finishing second are reflected in the payoffs. In my not so recent research I found that lower odds horses were underplayed in the underneath slots of verticals and longshots were overplayed. Doesn't mean it happened every time but far more often than not.
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Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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02-01-2019, 10:46 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
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I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.
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02-01-2019, 11:23 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron
I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.
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If longshots are substantially increasing their chances of finishing 2nd by 100% over finishing first which horses are substantially decreasing their chances to balance the equation?
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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02-02-2019, 01:31 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Well I tried my new software which is HTR and I had roughly about 20 plays. I let the software pick horses that were supposed to have and break even roi on the win and period from there I took all the closers for 2nd with that about a maximum of 3 horses plus any horse that was considered a value horse by the software and it punched and exacted today that paid I think $250. I had 5 winners and missed the 2nd place horse today. Which I think is an anomaly. So basically the day got saved by the one huge exacter. This is my black Box attempt and I think you're gonna do way Better if you put some handicapping into the place position. But the long shot that made up my big exact it was very difficult to come up with. He was not a closer.
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02-03-2019, 09:44 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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2 day results I'm up 11%....on 8k in bets. All of this is rebates. Using Courses in the when position with .98 and closers mostly for place. Only handicapped half the races. Most are black box. It should have been much more but I screwed up one of the bets. Monday and Tuesday I will actually handicap each race and see if that changes .
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02-03-2019, 11:47 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Teddy, interesting subject. While I don't use a black box, my approach is usually some form of A-B-C exacta play. My A's are usually based on my home-grown tote play, B's are either a combo of speed improvement, fulcrum pace qualifier, or a secondary tote play if one occurs. C's can be a dominant early speed play, or just gut-shot that my handicapping points towards. If there's a strong looking favorite, I generally box it with an A. While I didn't mention closers, they're often included in some way by one of the ABC's.
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One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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02-03-2019, 12:07 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.
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02-03-2019, 05:42 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.
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No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may be entirely accurate on that last point.
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One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 02-03-2019 at 05:48 PM.
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02-03-2019, 08:05 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may not be entirely accurate on that last point.
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edited for clarification.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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02-03-2019, 11:28 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Well the roi on my win position horses was .84 today and I lost $150 on exacta wagers...... Makes perfect sense.
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02-04-2019, 08:32 AM
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#44
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions.
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Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.
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"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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02-04-2019, 10:19 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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From another thread... Ray 2000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
imofe
Using the same races and same picks for Exacta betting gives the following table of results.
Code:
Ticket Return ROI Hits Strike rate
A/B $259,778 1.020 10,287 8.1%
A/BC $258,522 1.015 18,182 14.3%
AB/AB $258,390 1.015 18,244 14.3%
AB/ABC $254,765 1.000 31,374 24.6%
A/BCD $252,437 0.991 24,268 19.1%
Box3 $246,256 0.967 41,026 32.2%
BCD/A $231,230 0.908 16,735 13.1%
Box4 $230,298 0.904 62,920 49.4%
Ray backtested his play...
This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...
My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.
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Ray backtested his play...
This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...
My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.
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