Have you heard of the NEW survivor bet at the Meadowlands?

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

It sounds like fun. They are starting it on November 4th. It costs twenty cents a combo and they are guaranteeing $10k pool the first night.

You pick winners from 10 races, and at the end of the 10th race, those players who have the most consecutive winners starting with the first race, divides the pool.

This is "survivor" logic. As soon as you miss, you are out. So if you miss the first race and hit the next 9 -- you lose. Seems like a good strategy would be something like --

R1 -- ALL
R2 -- 6 HORSES
R3 -- 4 HORSES
R4 -- 3 HORSES
R5 -- 3 HORSES
R6 -- 2 HORSES
R7 -- 2 HORSES
then single, single, single

-- if the pool justifies it. I'm guessing most nights the winners will have 6 or 7. Of course if the bet becomes popular, and more money comes in -- it may go longer.

Note: I hate pentafectas. Big preference to horizontal bets.

[AstrosFan]

I think you take any horse(s) you feel that have a legit shot at winning...then use those as the selections. What that cost would be, well, that remains a mystery.

Why should I (as a handicapper) go "ALL" when I think there are only 3 horses that have a shot at winning in a certain leg? My goal is to get the winner of the race and move on.

I agree with the Pick 3-4-5 plays, they are great, especially with the lowered minimums.

How many times does the gambler get screwed over, for 3rd or 4th, in a tri or super, when a jock/driver stops trying? But if the win spot is on the line, they are trying like hell to win for that 60% check and not 2-5% for the minor placings

[caper]

I'm intrigued by this. I'm in Canada so I hope they still keep the .20c minimum. Problem with your strategy is that you spent $130 just to get to race 4. That's a lot. You will be competing with a lot of people with a lot of bullets. Bottom line is I think you need to find at least 3 locks to compete. Maybe all 3 within the first 8 races. At least that's how I see it.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

That was just a generalization -- emphasizing that being alive weighs heavier than having the winners in the last 3 races. Of course, if its all favorites and second choices, it might reach to the last race.

[Sea Biscuit]

Meadowlands New Survivor Wager Generating Chatter


http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/p...m_medium=email

Page 9

[Poindexter]

I think it is sort of an interesting bet. Doesn't seem to me like a bet that will have a lot of appeal to a whale. This bet has no jackpot, no carryover and a 20 cent cost. Hard to complete with a lot of 20 cent tickets coming from 100's of directions. Just to put in perspective how expensive these tickets can get, 4 deep in 10 races is like $200,000. That doesn't guarantee you much of anything. Want to go 8 deep in the first 5 races(and assume that will get yo to leg 6-which it may not and which may or may not get you anything) You are talking about $6000. How big are these pools going to be that people think Whales would want any part of it?

If The Big M can attract the kind of money from Whales that people are expecting nighty, they are way ahead of the game already. I don't think it is going to happen.

[caper]

I think you just have to play it like you need to pick 4 winners on a card. That's hard to do. But not impossible, because there are certainly cards where there will be a couple of 1/5's. Then just hopefully be astute enough to pick a couple of more. Agree that it might be best to single the last 2 races anyway. The more I think about it, the tougher it gets.

[Ray2000]

There will be a lot of these calculators around, maybe this is the first.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

There will be a lot of these calculators around, maybe this is the first.

If the bet becomes popular, you might have a viable product for sale.

There are a lot of mathematically challenged handicappers out there.