New DRF pace indicators

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is why I note the quality of the front runners in my pre race analysis.

In fact most of the trip notes i make are related to pace in some way.

I like to do that also.

I played Vertical Oak in the Prioress coming out of the Test. The Test was rated a C+ race. I immediately took a look at who was in that race, who she was battling with, how she did relative to those horses, and how some of those horses would look in the Prioress.

That's one thing not in the algorithm.

We can't get that specific about the quality of the horses. However, we try to compensate a bit by insisting the horse show fairly consistent speed and hold it for long enough in his races to assume he's probably in decent form and can have an impact. Most horses are spotted around their correct level anyway. There aren't too many horses spotted way outside the range where they can have some impact on the pace if they typically show speed.

I'm not going to pretend any algorithm can do as good a job as someone taking good notes like you, but there are time limitations on note taking. In those cases the symbols can potentially steer you to a live horse that's better or worse than it looks.

[citygoat]

Can they please print the horse that is going to win with Capital letters

[Racey]

Amazing a board so rich in knowledge can struggle so with these flow designations...... people overthink the process instead of cashing in on races that set up off the close to the pace hard C races or closing off the bold S . These flow designations are fantastic pure and simple.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Racey

Amazing a board so rich in knowledge can struggle so with these flow designations...... people overthink the process instead of cashing in on races that set up off the close to the pace hard C races or closing off the bold S . These flow designations are fantastic pure and simple.

Yes, exactly, and well put, I waited some time now for something I can wrap my mind around and USE...Lets talk about this a little more...

Cashing in on horses that...

A. Stayed forward despite the Hard Close Symbol:
Look for horses that ran near the lead and finished well in races that have a C or Bold C symbol, indicating that they ran well despite a race flow that favored closers.


B. Closed despite the Hard Speed Symbol:
Look for horses that rated or lagged behind the leaders but were still able to make up ground and finish well in races that have a S or Bold S symbol indicating that they ran well despite a race flow that favored early or early/ pressers.

Did I get it right here...?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by citygoat

Can they please print the horse that is going to win with Capital letters

Easy, just don't play the horses marked with an (L) = loser.

[classhandicapper]

The trick of course is learning to upgrade or downgrade the right horses and then looking for them in more favorable circumstances next time where their best race has a chance win or fill out an exotic. Some trips are clear, but some are not.

If a horse was sitting 2nd or 3rd in an S+ race is he an upgrade or downgrade?

IMO, it sort of depends.

If he was the big favorite and got wired by an inferior horse he's probably better than he looks. He may have won with a more honest pace.

If he was some cheap speed longshot that wound up hanging around better than expected then maybe he should be downgraded next time in a more neutral spot.

The most obvious ones are the horses that dueled or got outrun in C+ races.

Another great angle is the horse that got hung out wide 1st turn in a 2 turn race that was rated as a C+ race. Those horses often get absolutely killed and then come right back to their best form next time.

There were a few of those among the Triple Crown horses this year. Not all won, but it explained the in/out performances really well.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The trick of course is learning to upgrade or downgrade the right horses and then looking for them in more favorable circumstances next time where their best race has a chance win or fill out an exotic. Some trips are clear, but some are not.

If a horse was sitting 2nd or 3rd in an S+ race is he an upgrade or downgrade?

IMO, it sort of depends.

If he was the big favorite and got wired by an inferior horse he's probably better than he looks. He may have won with a more honest pace.

If he was some cheap speed longshot that wound up hanging around better than expected then maybe he should be downgraded next time in a more neutral spot.

The most obvious ones are the horses that dueled or got outrun in C+ races.

Another great angle is the horse that got hung out wide 1st turn in a 2 turn race that was rated as a C+ race. Those horses often get absolutely killed and then come right back to their best form next time.

There were a few of those among the Triple Crown horses this year. Not all won, but it explained the in/out performances really well.

Example #1:
KentuckyDowns
Tomorrow, 9Sep. 1st race
Horse #12 Starving Artist
Ran 18Aug EIP 1 mile turf
Sustained runner improved into S Flow....Upgrade here...?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Example #1:
KentuckyDowns
Tomorrow, 9Sep. 1st race
Horse #12 Starving Artist
Ran 18Aug EIP 1 mile turf
Sustained runner improved into S Flow....Upgrade here...?

Sorry, I didn't see this until just now.

That was probably a decent "upgrade", but it was a tough field to have a strong opinion on given all the first time starters and first time turf horses. The horse did run OK at close to 8-1.

I am careful about upgrading deeper closers because some of them are just suck up types that do a little running at the end but really can't win unless the race totally falls apart. I also prefer playing horses out of the S+ and C+ races when they are going to get the opposite scenario next time.

[thaskalos]

Let's say that a race figures to be hotly-contested early, but the speed duel never materializes...because all but one of the pace-setters elect to take back during the early portion of the race. Do these new pace-flow indicators give 'extra credit" to the lone front-runner...for taking the lead in a supposedly speed-ladened race?

[Maximillion]

I still think the early positions of the 1-2-3 finishers would be more useful and
would require no program or any kind of subjective decision.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I still think the early positions of the 1-2-3 finishers would be more useful and
would require no program or any kind of subjective decision.

Or the finish positions of the 1-2-3 pace-setters.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Or the finish positions of the 1-2-3 pace-setters.

Another good idea.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Let's say that a race figures to be hotly-contested early, but the speed duel never materializes...because all but one of the pace-setters elect to take back during the early portion of the race. Do these new pace-flow indicators give 'extra credit" to the lone front-runner...for taking the lead in a supposedly speed-ladened race?

It depends what happens behind the leader.

If the race falls apart behind the leader the race will get a symbol.

If what happens behind that leader is more typical of any other race it will not.

Your scenario would typically look more like the second option.

When a horse wires and the race gets a C or C+ symbol, that usually means the other speeds tried, got outrun/put away, and all quit. When I see a W2W winner and a C or C+ symbol I will usually look at the quality of the other speeds (look at their PPs), watch the race, and sometimes take a quick look at the Timeform pace figures.

[classhandicapper]

I agree that the early position of the 1-2-3 finishers and where the 1-2-3 early horses finished would be useful information as stand alone metrics. That's kind of how the chart analysis works, but there are different standards based on field size and for different symbols.

I should add that there is already a list of potential improvements to the quality and amount of information available. Among them are an archive for research, having the components broken down, and having some races/horses flagged.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I should add that there is already a list of potential improvements to the quality and amount of information available. Among them are an archive for research, having the components broken down, and having some races/horses flagged.

If people like this kind of information, perhaps resources will be put into enhancing the product and it will evolve and improve over time just like Beyer figures and other DRF products.