New DRF pace indicators

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm sure some people look, would be silly not to keep abreast of what your competition is doing. Where do you think this "Pace Ace" idea came from at DRF?

That would mean there's good chance of a "mole" in somebody's organization judging by the secrecy surrounding said proprietary methods...

[classhandicapper]

Vigors,

The other speeds did NOT hold. What we know is that they ran better than it looks in terms of how much speed they showed and how well they held.

Here's a very extreme example to illustrate the point.

Dr Fager wires a 25k claimer loaded with speed and kills them all off. The fact that he wired doesn't mean the race was not a C race. It sure as hell was a CCCC race for the chasers.

When a speed horse wires a C race, the winner may have and often has run a huge race. But sometimes he was just dominant and ran well. what we are learning in those cases is more about the other speeds that chased him. They are better than they look. These are the applications you learn with time the same way you learn how to use speed figures and take it to the next level. Listen to Kennys podcasts etc.

[classhandicapper]

The idea for Pace Ace came from Kenny Peck. He's been a pace/race flow oriented handicapper for DRF for decades. What Pace Ace is doing is mimicking what Kenny has been doing privately and manually for a very long time for his personal use. It is now automated and scaled up to cover many tracks. Kenny could only do a few for himself manually. I've seen his notebooks. 😀

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The idea for Pace Ace came from Kenny Peck. He's been a pace/race flow oriented handicapper for DRF for decades. What Pace Ace is doing is mimicking what Kenny has been doing privately and manually for a very long time for his personal use. It is now automated and scaled up to cover many tracks. Kenny could only do a few for himself manually. I've seen his notebooks. 😀

Will do. I'll search the internet now for Kennys podcasts..

Like I say, I really like the ratings because they provide, IMO, the right starting point to begin to look into the past performances...which horses are coming out of which pace scenarios....

These pace ratings provide an opportunity for greater success without having to crunch out pace figures on my own, by identifying races where something different was happening, and gives you some clues...for the hunt!

Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Will do. I'll search the internet now for Kennys podcasts..

Like I say, I really like the ratings because they provide, IMO, the right starting point to begin to look into the past performances...which horses are coming out of which pace scenarios....

These pace ratings provide an opportunity for greater success without having to crunch out pace figures on my own, by identifying races where something different was happening, and gives you some clues...for the hunt!

Thanks.

No problem.

He did a webcast last week and I'm sure he'll be writing more articles
and doing webcasts and podcasts from time to time.

[Racey]

These symbols continue to be helpful in many ways and I hope even little Andy who is no fan of Kenny Peck can see the light. perhaps he can put his dislike aside and give an objective opinion

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Racey

These symbols continue to be helpful in many ways and I hope even little Andy who is no fan of Kenny Peck can see the light. perhaps he can put his dislike aside and give an objective opinion

I wholeheartedly agree with you. If you know how to use them, they are not only helpful when picking winners, but very good for picking winning longshots.

[classhandicapper]

For me, they are indispensable as a supplement to pace figures.

There are way too many races with fast/slow fractions that do not develop the way "theory" suggests because of the field makeup, action within the race, track bias, and other complications to measuring pace well. The race flow symbols give you another view into what happened in the race based on how much speed was actually entered in the race and how the chart looks.

One of my favorite uses is for running style analysis.

If you see a horse that typically goes for the lead, but last time he was 4th or 5th early and the race got a C+, it's very likely the race was loaded with speed types and he was outrun by horses that were quicker out of the gate, faster, or the jock decided not to battle the others. No matter what, he was out of position because it. You can't always see that in the fractions.

The same thing happens in reverse. Sometimes there's no speed in a race and some horse that usually sits off the pace gets the lead. Even if the pace figures look average or mildly quick, if the race got an S+ symbol, it's telling you that horse probably just drew into a race without any other real speed types and inherited the lead. In a more normal field he'd get outrun early and sit again.

No automated system for figures, race flow, bias or anything else is ever going to be as good as analyzing fields, watching replays, looking at charts manually etc... but that doesn't mean they aren't useful.

I also take a quick glance at the Timeform Bias (red or blue) all the time also.

Do I agree with every bias or race flow note?

No.

But both are terrific ways of getting your attention. They are telling you that something about that race or day was significant enough to set off the algorithm. So I go back and take a look.

Beyer and TimeformUS figures have evolved over the years (decades when it comes to Beyer) and keep getting better and better. The same can be true of the Face Flow symbols if there is demand for them to be refined. There is already a list of things that can be done to improve the accuracy of the notes and provide supplemental information that was put together after the 5 years of testing was done.

[classhandicapper]

Just for the record (in case someone doesn't already know from the conversation throughout the thread), I work at DRF, Kenny is my friend, and I helped him on this project. So I guess there should be some kind of disclaimer, but I'm calling it as I see it.

[Racey]

Like I said throughout the thread and Pandy agreed IF YOU KNOW HOW TO USE THEM..... Guys like Little Andy come off smug and dismiss Peck and his insight.

[Racey]

Ever did was remove Peck and Thomas from Happy Hour and leave us with Bernier.

[GMB@BP]

Ok, it only took me reading 16 pages and two articles and I think I got it, and I will watch the webinar tomorrow to understand more.

I think this tool can be userfull as I manually make a note of the expected pace (using Timeform's pace projector) and the actually pace. This way I get two pieces of information.

1. for whatever reason the race not run as expected which makes me look a little closer at the why on the replays.

2. It will tell me how the race shape was before the race.

I want to know why was my speed horse not on the lead last time, was it a projected fast pace with many other speed horses which immediately compromised their chances, which is often not dependent on what the pace figures were.

I wish it gave the pre race and post race designations rather then only showing something if it was confirmed.

Now how good is their pre race judge of what the pace was supposed to be? If its dependent on the Moss pace figures I am going to say not very accurate.

[GMB@BP]

Yea, totally getting this now as I have race shapes before and after the race in every race run in NY for the past 3 months and looking through my formulator files I see what they are doing and how it makes sense. Its no different than my manual work really in noting how the race shape was predicted and how it was run, and it does seem rather consistent with my notes.

Again, still feels like useful information to know the algorithm of race shape PRIOR to ever race, not just the ones that lined up. Plenty of times a race set up for speed that ended up becoming a crazy pace and then falling apart, doesnt mean the algorithm was wrong just that the race dynamics may have dictated it to fall apart.

Also, reading a few posts in this thread, as long as it gets explained well somewhere I dont see how having more information is a bad thing, the person doing the handicapping can use the info that they want to use. I use the DRF forms but dont use the Beyere figures.

[betovernetcapper]

Anyone have a clue when these will be added to Formulator?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

Anyone have a clue when these will be added to Formulator?

They are in there on my forumulator