Exaggerator 9/5

[Redboard]

I think 9/5 (1.8) is an accurate morning line and believe he will go off at that (maybe a little higher). I looked back to see which FAVORITES this century were around that number and found these who were between 1.2-2.5 (they all lost):

2013- Orb 2.2
2012- Dullahan 2.5
2010- Ice Box 1.85
2009- Mine That Bird 1.25
2002- War Emblem 1.25

Does anyone have an opinion whether Exaggerator is better/worse than these going into the race?

[Bullet Plane]

I think Exaggerator is better and more versatile than the above horses.

With the possible exception of War Emblem, who I believe had trouble during the Belmont... went to his knees at the start of the race.

What he has in common with the above favorites, except for War Emblem..

is that he is a closer.

[letswastemoney]

Hoping Exaggerator will flatten out like a pancake.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

I think Exaggerator is better and more versatile than the above horses.

With the possible exception of War Emblem, who I believe had trouble during the Belmont... went to his knees at the start of the race.

What he has in common with the above favorites, except for War Emblem..

is that he is a closer.

And it seems to me tremendously silly to make conclusions about Exaggerator based on 5 horses who went off at similar odds to his morning line.

[horses4courses]

I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

I agree.
He will take some money.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree.
He will take some money.

Double agreed. Even money-7/5, somewhere around there.

[Valuist]

Oddschecker has him at roughly 7/5 with Suddenbreakingnews about 11/2.

[Redboard]

As Bullet Plane mentioned, except for War Emblem who was a front runner as well as going for a triple crown, the other four were closers like Exaggerator, and in the Belmont none of them got near the lead, except for Mine That Bird who actually took the lead in the stretch, before fading to third.

I would take all over Exaggerator except Dullahan who won the Bluegrass that year but it was on synthetic. Ice Box skipped the Preakness so he had that extra rest, which makes him more appealing to me.

2013- Orb 2.2- Finished third
Won the derby in the slop but was coming off a dull effort in the Preakness, which people blamed on being trapped on the rail.
2012- Dullahan 2.5- finished seventh
Won the Bluegrass, third in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness.
2010- Ice Box 1.85 - Finished ninth.
Won the Florida Derby, second in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness.
2009- Mine That Bird 1.25 – Finished third
Won derby then second in the Preakness. With Calvin back aboard, it’s no wonder he went off at such low odds.
2002- War Emblem 1.25


I still say exaggerator will be closer to 2-1. Bettors will have "mudder" in their minds and if it's a nice day, others will be more attractive.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I think he will close nearer even money than 2-1.

Agree also. He will go off at 4-5 or even money. He is the clear cut best horse in the race on paper, and the betting will reflect that.

[linrom1]

Best single of the day, EXAGGERATOR- 11th horse in the 11th race.

[Tom]

Watch him finish 11th!

[TBD]

Tom that busted me up. Seeing nightmares of Big Brown.

[depalma113]

Exaggerator is trying to be the first horse in 61 years to finish second
In the Derby and than go on to win the Preakness and Belmont. In contrast, there have been 4 Triple Crown winners over that same time period.

[Shemp Howard]

Originally Posted by linrom1

Best single of the day, EXAGGERATOR- 11th horse in the 11th race.

I'll drink to that!!