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Old 06-07-2016, 08:45 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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G1 Belmont Stakes

Many will say "What an odd field?". They'd be wrong.

The Belmont Stakes has often seen a much different field than the other 2 crowns, and has been the site of some significant and ridiculous upsets.

12Fs. This WILL be the only time these colts will ever run this distance competitively.

As post position doesn't really matter much, I'll roll through them:

Brody's Cause: Only horse in the field to beat Exaggerator. Not only once, but twice. Unfortunately, this one hasn't progressed much as a 3YO. Is this his time to shine? At very likely huge odds, I would not dismiss his chances to seriously improve in here.

Cherry Wine
: Ran huge in the Preakness with a perfect trip. Belmont isn't about a perfect trip other than getting the distance. A huge play against for me.

Creator: Beat my Kentucky Derby play in the Arkansas Derby, and then ran into a decent amount of trouble in the actual Derby. The change to Irad Ortiz can't be overlooked. A talented and deep closer, that I'm not sure wants all of 12 panels.

Destin
: That really wasn't a bad 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, it wasn't anything special either. Trouble early, even throughout. Would have at least liked some kind of move. Will need to be on the front end if he has any chance. And 12Fs in nowhere near in his house.

Exaggerator
: Favorite. Should be. He has been getting better each and every race as a 3YO. He has also been sound. An obvious favorite, and the one to beat.

Forever d'Oro
: Love the breeding to get the distance. Will likely run on forever. Reality is, can he run with these now? Weird things happen, but this would be really weird.

Gettysburg
: Shady entry. Has fallen well short of many in here, and distance is a joke. Da' Tara is asking questions.

Governor Malibu
: Already seeing smart money on this guy. I'll take a huge pass as he hasn't beat anybody to date worth worrying about. Luv Gov is calling.

Lani: Not sure what to do. I had a huge Exagerrator/Lani Exacta in the Preakness. He ran on well to finish 5th, but could have easily ran 2nd. Connections, and the horse, really don't care what else is going on around them. They'll do their thing. I'm still confused.

Seeking The Soul: Not sure how this horse isn't already on turf. Somehow a crappy Maiden win in a crappy time can land you here.

Stradivari: I'll admit. I didn't see him having a chance in the Preakness. He ran very very well amid a really crappy trip. Johnny V stays on board, and a more sustained ride could well be what this one really needs.

Suddenbreakingnews: OK. This was my Kentucky Derby wager to WP. Yeah, he didn't hit the board. However, my Kentucky Derby wagers have done very very well in the Belmont over the years. Who do you ask? Palace Malice, Summer Bird, Jazil, and Afleet Alex for instance. Not sure this one is like those. And I'd be very surprised if he gets it done.

Trojan Nation
: Still a Maiden. Ran like crap in the Derby, will run like crap here.

Well, those are my thoughts on Tuesday.
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Old 06-08-2016, 11:06 AM   #2
clocker7
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Can Lani run in Tokyo in February, go to Dubai, ship to CD and Pim, and then have anything left in the stretch drive at 12f at another different track?

Might be a wonder horse .... but would bet against it.
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Old 06-08-2016, 12:32 PM   #3
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My initial impressions from looking at the early PP's:

1. A lot of backrunners are entered compared to tactical speed horses. And there isn't a single gate-to-wire win for any of the entrants.

2. Exaggerator pretty much stands out in terms of proven class. He also should be able to get whatever forward positioning Desormeaux wants without any undue difficulty or effort, even though he's been near the back at the beginning of his recent races.

3. Pletcher's twosome of Destin and Stradivari both have some early lick which should be beneficial and are probably second and third in terms of proven ability to this point. Of course, they could very well be the second and third betting choices.
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Old 06-08-2016, 01:26 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Destin
: That really wasn't a bad 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, it wasn't anything special either. Trouble early, even throughout. Would have at least liked some kind of move. Will need to be on the front end if he has any chance. And 12Fs in nowhere near in his house.
[b]
Sired by Giant's Causeway and the dam routed as often as she sprinted so I don't see why 12f should be particularly a problem for this horse any more than most of the others in the field.
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Old 06-08-2016, 01:41 PM   #5
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I'm liking SBN here. The horse finally gets a genuine rider in Smith who also happens to clean house in the Belmont Stakes with a 5:2-1-1 record in recent years. The only one he missed the board with was the greatly overmatched Frammento last year. If Smith can keep this horse a little closer to the front then it might have the most leg down the stretch. SBN only fits a couple of my Belmont angles but will be one I key in the trifecta.
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Old 06-08-2016, 01:43 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clocker7
Can Lani run in Tokyo in February, go to Dubai, ship to CD and Pim, and then have anything left in the stretch drive at 12f at another different track?

Might be a wonder horse .... but would bet against it.
A wonder horse? Lol
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Old 06-08-2016, 02:46 PM   #7
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Entries are in, posts are drawn. Gettysburg has been entered (he wasn't on the early list in the TFUS PP's that I was looking at) and I guess he's the likeliest frontrunner, seems to be nothing more than a Winstar rabbit.
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Old 06-08-2016, 03:51 PM   #8
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Well, nobody has ever said I was smart. Just the opposite probably. But I landed on Governor Malibu myself. And just to reinforce that I`m the opposite of smart, I may have talked myself into using Forever d`Oro as well. The latter is more of a case of me not being enamoured with the other entries besides Governor Malibu for various reasons, so I might as well go with a big price that has a few things to like about him (pedigree, win over track, jockey, etc).
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Old 06-08-2016, 10:46 PM   #9
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Brody's Cause: Fundamentally sound warrior. Better horse and better odds than Cherry Wine. I'm not a big fan, but he could bull his way into a board spot.

Creator: More talent than Brody's Cause. This is a good animal. Seems to really need the race to come to him.

Destin
: Would need a dream trip to beat Exaggerator at anything. Why are racing fans/pundits/figuremakers trying to say that the Tampa and SamFDavis were anything other than a Grade2/3 type of race again?? That's where all this 'Destin is Fast!' crap comes from.
Still, he's good enough to belong in the race, and has the right style.

Exaggerator
: Should be right there. Highest % horse in the field. Probably over-bet.

Cherry Wine: If you consider yourself a trip handicapper, you are probably tossing this horse out of even deeper vertical exotics.

Governor Malibu
: Solid horse. Doesn't seem very flashy.

Stradivari: The upset hope. He could run a big race, he could be a non-factor. 'Potential' and a respectable Preakness effort make this one interesting. Good style for this race.

Suddenbreakingnews: He already looks like a hard-hitting handicap horse when he runs down the stretch. Nice to get to see him run in a big race again.
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Old 06-09-2016, 01:12 AM   #10
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Composite odds of UK bookmakers from Oddschecker:

Exaggerator 7/5
Suddenbreakingnews 11/2
Stradivari 7/1
Cherry Wine 9/1
Brody's Cause 10/1
Destin 10/1
Lani 12/1
Creator 15/1
Governor Malibu 15/1
Forever D'oro, Trojan Nation, Gettysburg & Seeking the Soul between 33-1 and
50-1
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Old 06-09-2016, 11:31 AM   #11
ebcorde
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Exxagerator

big field he'll go off 9-5. I don't see any others, Maybe Lani, Destin, the violin Horse for 2nd. but why take a chance on an exacta.

the big question for me is Gettysburg? does not belong.

Exx was my derby pick , and my future Breeder's cup pick. He ran the SA derby same way his dad ran the breeder's cup.
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Old 06-09-2016, 12:32 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde
the big question for me is Gettysburg? does not belong.

Steve Asmussen will have Gettysburg ensuring an honest pace for Win Star Farms' top 3yo Creator to close into.
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Old 06-09-2016, 03:16 PM   #13
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Belmont Stakes Podcast

Check out this Belmont Stakes Podcast
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Old 06-09-2016, 11:49 PM   #14
Lemon Drop Husker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Steve Asmussen will have Gettysburg ensuring an honest pace for Win Star Farms' top 3yo Creator to close into.
They also have a breeding interest in Exaggerator since they own his breeding rights.
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Old 06-10-2016, 01:40 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clocker7
Can Lani run in Tokyo in February, go to Dubai, ship to CD and Pim, and then have anything left in the stretch drive at 12f at another different track?

Might be a wonder horse .... but would bet against it.
I'm kind of intrigued by Lani. Arguably the best bred horse in the field; the dam won a grade 1 at 10 furlongs beating the top male horses in Japan. For her career, the dam (Heavenly Romance) won over $3.5 million. That Grade 1 win was as a 5 year old so maybe this one hasn't hit his ceiling yet.

A bloodlines box would be Lani/Forever d'Oro/Governor Malibu/Stradivari.

Last edited by Valuist; 06-10-2016 at 01:46 AM.
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