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05-09-2018, 07:55 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Are the Triple Crown horses broken
What happened between 2009 and 2010?
Average Beyer speed figure 1990-2009 = 110 (109.8)
Average Beyer speed figure 2010-2018 = 102 (102.3)
That is a pretty noticeable dip.
In fact the only horse to run lower than the 102 was Giacomo over that 19 year stretch.
The Preakness produced similar numbers. I know small sample sizes but this seems like the numbers have decreased dramatically.
Last edited by GMB@BP; 05-09-2018 at 07:59 PM.
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05-09-2018, 08:08 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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The decline of the breed and its ability to carry speed at a Classic distance. That's how you get a Scat Daddy in the winner's circle.
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05-09-2018, 08:15 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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the beyers changed in the mid 2000's...
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05-09-2018, 08:15 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by señorclipclop
The decline of the breed and its ability to carry speed at a Classic distance. That's how you get a Scat Daddy in the winner's circle.
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That is certainly a theory, but I am not sure if that is it.
Modern spacing of racing, modern medicine, etc, should also move horses towards being better, not significantly worse.
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05-09-2018, 08:16 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
the beyers changed in the mid 2000's...
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I have heard that theory as well but have not seen any real studies on it.
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05-09-2018, 08:57 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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I think a better question to ask here is "are the beyer figures broken"?
Applying even a modicum of critical thinking will lead a horseplayer to the conclusion that horses are getting faster.
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05-09-2018, 09:01 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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The unstated assumption here is that a system for comparing horses in the present can also accurately compare horses in different eras.
Why would you assume that?
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05-09-2018, 09:04 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
The unstated assumption here is that a system for comparing horses in the present can also accurately compare horses in different eras.
Why would you assume that?
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We have seen a lot of comparisons going on in social media, thats what made me look it up.
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05-10-2018, 09:33 AM
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#9
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
We have seen a lot of comparisons going on in social media, thats what made me look it up.
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There was a time when adjusting Timeform numbers (not TimeformUS, the UK version) for shippers was very solid by deducting 12 to 14 points was a very good gauge for comparison to Beyer Speed Figures.
That number has changed to 20+. If you tried to use 14 every Euro looks like a standout. But, you'll lose your ass if you bet them based on the old adjustment.
Timeform actually strives to keep ratings historically significant. The best horses most years run around the same numbers. Some years are weaker and then there is the occasional wonder horse like Frankel. But mostly they keep it tight. They've been rating horses for a very long time.
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05-10-2018, 10:15 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
There was a time when adjusting Timeform numbers (not TimeformUS, the UK version) for shippers was very solid by deducting 12 to 14 points was a very good gauge for comparison to Beyer Speed Figures.
That number has changed to 20+. If you tried to use 14 every Euro looks like a standout. But, you'll lose your ass if you bet them based on the old adjustment.
Timeform actually strives to keep ratings historically significant. The best horses most years run around the same numbers. Some years are weaker and then there is the occasional wonder horse like Frankel. But mostly they keep it tight. They've been rating horses for a very long time.
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I know Timeform strives to do this, but the reality is there is only so much figure makers can do. Tracks change in composition, the gap between stakes and claiming horses changes, the value of horses change, etc. And the main purpose of figures is handicapping, not history.
People just shouldn't assume that changes in speed figure pars measure anything about the breed. That isn't what figures are made for.
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05-10-2018, 03:24 PM
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#11
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I know Timeform strives to do this, but the reality is there is only so much figure makers can do. Tracks change in composition, the gap between stakes and claiming horses changes, the value of horses change, etc. And the main purpose of figures is handicapping, not history.
People just shouldn't assume that changes in speed figure pars measure anything about the breed. That isn't what figures are made for.
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To be clear, Timeform ratings are not speed figures, far from it.
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05-10-2018, 10:07 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
What happened between 2009 and 2010?
Average Beyer speed figure 1990-2009 = 110 (109.8)
Average Beyer speed figure 2010-2018 = 102 (102.3)
That is a pretty noticeable dip.
In fact the only horse to run lower than the 102 was Giacomo over that 19 year stretch.
The Preakness produced similar numbers. I know small sample sizes but this seems like the numbers have decreased dramatically.
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I blame artificial surfaces. The Beyers were bad on them and they couldn't make correct numbers when those horses ran on dirt.
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05-10-2018, 10:48 PM
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#13
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
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I've been blaming Big Brown and the end of widespread steroid use.
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05-10-2018, 11:09 PM
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#14
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Consider the racing type over the course of time. Haynie’s Maria (1808) raced 13 times covering more than 40 miles. Man O’War (1917) ran 21 times covering twenty and five-eighths miles. Justify (2017) has raced four times covering four and one quarter miles.
It is kinda hard to see the forest through the trees, but take a look at the data at following links.
http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=10
http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook/r...sp?whatyr=2017
Check the number of starts for Kentucky. If you think it through . . . there will be a time not too far from now that horseracing as we know it will die out. Horseracing is dying because the racehorse is becoming extinct. Speed kills, always has always will.
For now, here is an interesting thought. As the horses race few and fewer times as two-year-olds what will become of the historical two-year-old stakes races?
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
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05-11-2018, 11:35 AM
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#15
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,842
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20 years ago, Arrogate would have been a decent stakes horse.
No one would have thrown a party over his races.
In one of Quinn's books, the minimum standard for a Gr1 race was a Beyer of 118!
If today's Beyers are correct, the breed has regressed 100 years.
(Although with today's namby-pamby owners and trainers, that is a real possibility!)
Anyone think the widespread use of Lasix has anything to do with it?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 05-11-2018 at 11:37 AM.
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