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Old 08-22-2017, 09:06 PM   #1
Afleet
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Travers

Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?

  1. Cloud Computing 8-1
  2. Giuseppe the Great 20-1
  3. West Coast 4-1
  4. Tapwrit 7-2
  5. Good Samaritan 5-1
  6. Girvin 10-1
  7. Always Dreaming 6-1
  8. Lookin at Lee 30-1
  9. McCraken 12-1
  10. Irap 8-1
  11. Gunnevera 20-1
  12. Fayeq 30-1
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:14 PM   #2
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Are the pp's out yet?
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:25 PM   #3
Afleet
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Are the pp's out yet?
Just Equibase, DRF tomorrow

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0170826-545246
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:17 PM   #4
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I like Good Samaritan. I bet him in the Derby future book in Vegas last December. He's an excellent dirt horse and the Jim Dandy was no fluke.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:22 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?

  1. Cloud Computing 8-1
  2. Giuseppe the Great 20-1
  3. West Coast 4-1
  4. Tapwrit 7-2
  5. Good Samaritan 5-1
  6. Girvin 10-1
  7. Always Dreaming 6-1
  8. Lookin at Lee 30-1
  9. McCraken 12-1
  10. Irap 8-1
  11. Gunnevera 20-1
  12. Fayeq 30-1

I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:48 PM   #6
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Without poring over pp's Good Sam and Irap.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:50 PM   #7
Afleet
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I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.
Think Girvin would be lower and Cloud Computing higher. I wouldn't take 15-1 on Cloud Computing; been wrong before.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:51 PM   #8
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Without poring over pp's Good Sam and Irap.
that's how I see it-hope you are right
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:53 PM   #9
Afleet
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Originally Posted by SG4 View Post
I'm not knocking the ML cause I cannot make heads or tails over what the actual betting will be like, but does anyone think Tapwrit will actually be favored? Think we're going to see a situation similar to the Alabama where the top 4 betting interests were within .30 of each other on the tote board.
Elate dropped from 6-1 to 4-1 w/0 minutes to post-seems hard to believe
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:47 PM   #10
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West Coast and Good Samaritan
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Old 08-23-2017, 04:22 AM   #11
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I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.
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Old 08-23-2017, 09:17 AM   #12
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I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.
Irap's improvement from his lackluster performance in the Sunland Derby to the Bluegrass is what made me a believer. If you look at the horses he has beat in his last two races and what those horses have went on to do after; his resume might be the best of the bunch.
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Old 08-23-2017, 12:06 PM   #13
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I wonder if CJ might share how the Jim Dandy came back on his ratings. When I watched that race there was something I liked about the KD winner, but then looking at the clock afterwards, well, it took some of the shine off. I hate 5 horse races. I would bet rating makers have to split those small field races out as often as not.
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Old 08-23-2017, 01:11 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?

  1. Cloud Computing 8-1
  2. Giuseppe the Great 20-1
  3. West Coast 4-1
  4. Tapwrit 7-2
  5. Good Samaritan 5-1
  6. Girvin 10-1
  7. Always Dreaming 6-1
  8. Lookin at Lee 30-1
  9. McCraken 12-1
  10. Irap 8-1
  11. Gunnevera 20-1
  12. Fayeq 30-1
Tapwrit has zero chance.

As a fan, you really want to like Cloud Computing. He's the quality horse, and he figures to improve with more of a stalking style and less of a pressing style. An efficient stalking trip is no guarantee (we could see a repeat of the poor decision to track/press that we saw in the Jim Dandy). Also have to consider that an efficient race from CC is not necessarily a dominant race.

West Coast is clearly dangerous. He is trained by team Baffert, and shown enough quality thus far. He's relatively unproven, and appears to be a touch on the 'sluggish' side (normally better for the 3rd/4th position), but his stamina advantage could put him in contention. He will be ridden with confidence, and should at least be a part of any late flow.

It would be a mild upset if Always Dreaming were to run a strong race. However, even in this high-quality Travers, there isn't much quality forwardly-placed speed in this race. He's got a puncher's chance if he were to run his 'A'. I fully expect him to be empty again in the stretch. Fayeq is a threat to press from the wide draw. Neither should be in the superfecta without a soft, pace-less race.

Irap looks like a trap. He's much more fun to root for, than to bet on. Would be a great story if he puts it all together, but it's more likely that he makes no impact. Their best hope probably involves attending the pace. Would be ironic, if Irap were to conservatively attend a slow pace, and then inherit a strong position, and actually change leads, while Always Dreaming stops and Fayeq sputters on the wrong lead.

McCraken, Gunnevera, Good Samaritan are all kind of in the same 'quality horse with style, trip dependent' category of horses that can fill out a trifecta or superfecta, or need things to fall apart. If it becomes a wide-open cavalry charge, these will likely at least be involved.

Girven is just a notch below the latter trio.
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Old 08-23-2017, 04:57 PM   #15
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I have a really strong opinion in this race. Irap. He is the only 3yo that has really improved throughout the year. This horse is old school. He's gotten better because he's raced a lot. I was not a big fan of his in the beginning. He seemed like a big goofball. But if you really watch his last few races, he's really matured. He's changing leads correctly, he's become a more mature horse and not just racing on talent alone. Have any of these other horses gotten better throughout the year?

The wild card is Good Samaritan. I, too, had a Derby future bet on him. His injury early in the year set him back and he could never find the dirt. He's the wild card, but after watching his races this year, I have this feeling that he might be best at a mile and an eighth and not a mile and a quarter.

The other horses in this race don't excite me. McCracken doesn't want to go this far. Always Dreaming has lost his form. I suspect the same about CC. Many of the others are not fast enough or don't want this distance.
To some degree, Irap has appeared to improve because his connections wisely opted out of the rest of the Triple Crown after his Derby dud and pointed to lesser prizes in the Midwest. True, he changed leads correctly in the Indiana Derby, but he had those rivals over a barrel and the race was only 8.5f. He ran on the wrong lead throughout the stretch of the Ohio Derby at 9f as he did in the 9f Blue Grass. Irap is just as suspect as 10f as the rest.

Girvin has shown a bit more improvement in my opinion. He had well documented soundness issues leading up to Derby and like Irap opted out of the rest of the classics. Barely a nostril separated those two in the Ohio Derby, but Girvin was given a curious ride by Mike Smith in that race. A confirmed closer at Fair Grounds, Girvin prompted the early pace and then moved inexplicably with nearly a 1/2 mile left to run to the lead while under pressure between horses. He was a sitting duck in the stretch for the well-held and patiently ridden Irap who never actually got the better of Girvin, simply winning the head bob to the line.

A justified rider switch was made next out and Girvin stepped up from the second tier Midwest targets to tackle a loaded field in the Haskell. Back to his closing style under Robby Albarado, he collared everyone in the shadow of the wire. The main knock is that he tagged two confirmed hangers (at a route of ground) in McCraken and Practical Joke.
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