Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

Most of my portfolio is there for SWMBO, since her family has WAY more longevity than my family. She's also a few years younger than me. So those investments are there for her after I'm long gone. And it's (mostly) invested in ETF, UIT and Mutual Funds that are ultra conservative. But even these have seen some losses recently. Not big losses at all, but a loss is a loss. I'm staying in, and I think there will be brighter days ahead. If not next year, then in two or three or four. Everything is cyclical.

So like some other market players, I'm a long term investor for 80 percent of my portfolio. About 20 percent I have split between an auto-investor (robotic trader) and a fund for day trading. The auto investor? It's been outperforming my wealth manager's recommendations since Biden took office. Big time. It's been shuffling money around like a mad robot.... which at this point it really is. But it has conserved 100 percent of my initial investment, plus added to it more than I expected. Not bad in this market.

I don't day trade like I used to. I've missed some big opportunities, but it's also been much less stressful. I do have some holdings that I got too busy to sell on a short term basis. These have now gone long term. So I have to start looking at profit-taking and potential loss on some.

the things that look pretty good right now are food, fertilizer and precious metals and the energy sector.

that being said, the tech sector led these markets on the way up and looks like they are leading the way south.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the things that look pretty good right now are food, fertilizer and precious metals and the energy sector.

that being said, the tech sector led these markets on the way up and looks like they are leading the way south.

Very true, lamboguy. I have some gold holdings, including a well performing gold mine. I have not done food nor fertilizer. I need to start doing my homework on those.

My biggest surprise recently is the failure of Cannabis stocks and ETFs to perform. Whether you are pro or anti medical use or legalization of Cannabis, I am an investor and if there is opportunity, I invest. I thought it would be like investing in fire before there was fire. A slam dunk. Nope.

I've been waiting to see if it would have been federally legalized. Nope. At least not yet. And I did not expect Biden to fire all of his staff members that admitted to using Cannabis. I'll keep an eye on it to see if Congress makes it federally legal (doubtful this year), but at this point it does not look like the investment opportunity that I thought it was going to be.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

About 20 percent I have split between an auto-investor (robotic trader) and a fund for day trading. The auto investor? It's been outperforming my wealth manager's recommendations since Biden took office. Big time. It's been shuffling money around like a mad robot.... which at this point it really is.

not trying to put a damper on your post - I don't know which robo trader you use - and you weren't comparing to the S&P_____

anyway

according to investopedia the top 3 robo trading ETFs - ticker symbols ROBO, BOTZ and KOMP have all gotten beaten and beaten badly by the S&P tracking ETF - IVV - for both the YTD and 1 year period

ROBO and BOTZ have also gotten beaten for the 3 year period

KOMP beat IVV for the 3 year period by a tiny margin



.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

Very true, lamboguy. I have some gold holdings, including a well performing gold mine. I have not done food nor fertilizer. I need to start doing my homework on those.

My biggest surprise recently is the failure of Cannabis stocks and ETFs to perform. Whether you are pro or anti medical use or legalization of Cannabis, I am an investor and if there is opportunity, I invest. I thought it would be like investing in fire before there was fire. A slam dunk. Nope.

I've been waiting to see if it would have been federally legalized. Nope. At least not yet. And I did not expect Biden to fire all of his staff members that admitted to using Cannabis. I'll keep an eye on it to see if Congress makes it federally legal (doubtful this year), but at this point it does not look like the investment opportunity that I thought it was going to be.

Altria, Philip Morris has performed very well lately and that is mainstream marijuana. if you take a look at the laws regulating Canibus state by state, they look pretty bazaar to me. there is nothing on the books about legal contents of strength the dispensary can carry. in most places they allow regular people to grow up to 6 plants per person for recreational marijuana. you can grow more if it's for medical purposes. the front door of the dispensary is wide open for back door dealing now. until there are federal laws, this will be a shattered industry. i am told that the Biden administration is in favor of legalization, but the shape of the congress doesn't have it and the makeup of the congress does not figure to improve in the near future for legalization.

[lamboguy]

if the markets don't get wrecked, i like American Manganese AMY.V. this isn't the first time i touted this. i was in on a private placement about 4 years ago. sold half close to the highs and have now re-bought. the shares have been diluted heavily, but i don't believe there will be any more secondary issues for quite some time. the last issue was over $1,00 and was oversubscribed. .https://www.howestreet.com/2022/04/a...opportunities/

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

Altria, Philip Morris has performed very well lately and that is mainstream marijuana. if you take a look at the laws regulating Canibus state by state, they look pretty bazaar to me. there is nothing on the books about legal contents of strength the dispensary can carry. in most places they allow regular people to grow up to 6 plants per person for recreational marijuana. you can grow more if it's for medical purposes. the front door of the dispensary is wide open for back door dealing now. until there are federal laws, this will be a shattered industry. i am told that the Biden administration is in favor of legalization, but the shape of the congress doesn't have it and the makeup of the congress does not figure to improve in the near future for legalization.

Good points, Lambo. While the US was trying to sort this out, I ventured into Canadian holdings for a while. Tilray (NY Based but operations in Canada) went from a high of about $22 last year to a now meager $6. Canopy Growth (Canadian) is about the same. Aurora was even worse with a steep decline over the last 12 months. Some losses absorbed in all positions. I did not have much of a position so the losses were not deep. May hold for a year or two just to see what may happen.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if the markets don't get wrecked, i like American Manganese AMY.V. this isn't the first time i touted this. i was in on a private placement about 4 years ago. sold half close to the highs and have now re-bought. the shares have been diluted heavily, but i don't believe there will be any more secondary issues for quite some time. the last issue was over $1,00 and was oversubscribed. .https://www.howestreet.com/2022/04/a...opportunities/

Thank you. Now on my radar.

[plainolebill]

I like Peabody Coal, BTU, it's run a long way but short of nuclear war I expect it to mint money.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

I like Peabody Coal, BTU, it's run a long way but short of nuclear war I expect it to mint money.

good one!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

I like Peabody Coal, BTU, it's run a long way but short of nuclear war I expect it to mint money.

i really don't know how i missed this one.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

I like Peabody Coal, BTU, it's run a long way but short of nuclear war I expect it to mint money.

Nice run since the low of $1.05, now $32.54. Congrats to those in on that ride.

Will probably execute a position on Monday. Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

S&P futures already down 30 points after 1.5 hrs of trading on this fine Easter evening...an ominous start to the trading week...

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

S&P futures already down 30 points after 1.5 hrs of trading on this fine Easter evening...an ominous start to the trading week...

And gold is up $15.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

S&P futures already down 30 points after 1.5 hrs of trading on this fine Easter evening...an ominous start to the trading week...

yep...looks like an ugly start

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

yep...looks like an ugly start

Once more Home equity loan rates rose like most and it's having effects as low as 500,000 $ lines are shaking with a boot strap.