Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Well well well...haven't seen that much RED VOLUME in one day since the pandemic selloff of 2020....

That's gotta mean something, right?

I thought the markets were supposed to be all knowing and be looking 6 months into the future...

They didn't see the good chance that inflation is NOT under control? Really now...

All that money floating around out there, and everyone is a moron it seems.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Well well well...haven't seen that much RED VOLUME in one day since the pandemic selloff of 2020....

That's gotta mean something, right?

I thought the markets were supposed to be all knowing and be looking 6 months into the future...

They didn't see the good chance that inflation is NOT under control? Really now...

All that money floating around out there, and everyone is a moron it seems.

The market seems to think it can just somehow bypass the bad parts of a recession and just skip right to the recovery part.


Unemployment has to rise in order to fix inflation, as long as the work force has pressure for higher wages everything will cost more.



The other big story is that raising prices is now entrenched in the system, everyone is doing it. I'm a CPA who works with about 85 small businesses. All of them are raising their prices. As good businessmen they understand that everything around them costs more, and that the public basically expects to pay more now. If you aren't raising prices you are totally missing the boat.

[Richie]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

The market seems to think it can just somehow bypass the bad parts of a recession and just skip right to the recovery part.


Unemployment has to rise in order to fix inflation, as long as the work force has pressure for higher wages everything will cost more.



The other big story is that raising prices is now entrenched in the system, everyone is doing it. I'm a CPA who works with about 85 small businesses. All of them are raising their prices. As good businessmen they understand that everything around them costs more, and that the public basically expects to pay more now. If you aren't raising prices you are totally missing the boat.

got to be a braking point somewhere, where people stop buying

[myohmyjustify]

We are getting close to a great buying opportunity so have enough cash available to take advantage.

I believe next week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a historic move. He will raise interest rates an unprecedented full one per cent. Hell could break loose with this one per cent rise.

The rate hike will rattle the stock market and create a buying opportunity for all brave investors who kept their heads when others lost theirs.

Come November, the winning GOP red wave election results will begin to restore order and confidence in our financial systems, government and economy. Big money is made when you least expect it.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by Richie

got to be a braking point somewhere, where people stop buying

With day traders....it will never happen

[Rex Phinney]

Fedex has pulled all current year guidance and emphatically said that global shipping demand is falling rapidly.



Inflation will still be a problem 365 days from now. It's entrenched in wages, raising prices has become a fix all for businesses small and large.


Big business is responsible for a record level of commerce in this country, and big business will continue to raise prices to hit their numbers. Thus the only stop to the cycle is something that looks like economic ruins, nothing short of that will stop businesses from raising prices.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Fedex has pulled all current year guidance and emphatically said that global shipping demand is falling rapidly.



Inflation will still be a problem 365 days from now. It's entrenched in wages, raising prices has become a fix all for businesses small and large.


Big business is responsible for a record level of commerce in this country, and big business will continue to raise prices to hit their numbers. Thus the only stop to the cycle is something that looks like economic ruins, nothing short of that will stop businesses from raising prices.

Competition from UPS & USPS should keep prices from sky rocketing

Plus holiday season is always profitable for all logistic companies...

Let the games begin or is it gains

[BroadwayJoe]

It's coming...

First warnings....

Then bad earnings report...

Then Dividend cuts....

Then its bye bye....


Question :


I have about 10% left before it hits my initial investment back in 2014


Pull out now or later ?

thxs

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

It's coming...

First warnings....

Then bad earnings report...

Then Dividend cuts....

Then its bye bye....


Question :


I have about 10% left before it hits my initial investment back in 2014


Pull out now or later ?

thxs

i gave up trying to figure out price points, now i am sticking with time which is probably tougher than price. i have the next big bottom coming in June of 2023. how low we go between now and then is anyone's guess. i suspect the minimal guess would be bringing the market back to 2008 lows, from there you can go back to the 2001 highs or lows. ithese are just guess's though. there is some strong support in 2011, but judging by the way this thing has been coming down, i think those numbers will get broken.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i gave up trying to figure out price points, now i am sticking with time which is probably tougher than price. i have the next big bottom coming in June of 2023. how low we go between now and then is anyone's guess. i suspect the minimal guess would be bringing the market back to 2008 lows, from there you can go back to the 2001 highs or lows. ithese are just guess's though. there is some strong support in 2011, but judging by the way this thing has been coming down, i think those numbers will get broken.

Hope not or wifey will add a few years more at work...

You think its fair that I'm retired at 62 and she's gotta work till 70???

Anyway.....Need gas prices to be controlled to keep Logistics going and believe

me they are not sitting on their asses....price increases have happened

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

Hope not or wifey will add a few years more at work...

You think its fair that I'm retired at 62 and she's gotta work till 70???

Anyway.....Need gas prices to be controlled to keep Logistics going and believe

me they are not sitting on their asses....price increases have happened

if you are in the markets, the whole game is about being in the right direction at the right time. there is no rule that says you have to be long the market at all times. the adage goes buy low and sell high. right now we are at high, now we have to find Mr. Low.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you are in the markets, the whole game is about being in the right direction at the right time. there is no rule that says you have to be long the market at all times. the adage goes buy low and sell high. right now we are at high, now we have to find Mr. Low.

I am not that smart...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

I am not that smart...

yes you are, just look at it like you are watching sports, one team wins and the other loses then it flip-flops. same thing if you are on a crap table, the dice are either going to be right or wrong.

the worst thing to do is be complacent and think that markets one have 1 long-term direction. that i guarantee you is wrong no matter what you are programmed to believe.

i was following and posting here the congressional trades for a few months on this board. i stopped because the vast majority of the trades were sells and i haven't seen to many buys. those people are in the know more than I, so i have been paying attention to them. don't let the bankers screw you out of your money.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

yes you are, just look at it like you are watching sports, one team wins and the other loses then it flip-flops. same thing if you are on a crap table, the dice are either going to be right or wrong.

the worst thing to do is be complacent and think that markets one have 1 long-term direction. that i guarantee you is wrong no matter what you are programmed to believe.

i was following and posting here the congressional trades for a few months on this board. i stopped because the vast majority of the trades were sells and i haven't seen to many buys. those people are in the know more than I, so i have been paying attention to them. don't let the bankers screw you out of your money.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you are in the markets, the whole game is about being in the right direction at the right time. there is no rule that says you have to be long the market at all times. the adage goes buy low and sell high. right now we are at high, now we have to find Mr. Low.

Sadly they don't ring a bell when the market bottoms.


The market has basically been in the red for the better part of 9 months now, and just about anything an investor wants to buy is off 20%. I'm buying all kinds of shit every day right now. It very well could go lower from here, in fact that might be the most likely scenario, but a 20% discount is a 20% discount no matter what happens from here.