Monmouth Park - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

biggestal99 · 06-01-2021, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

Here's a few facts for all of the "experts":

1) Monmouth handle is way down. However...
2) The first two days of this holiday weekend had weather more like November than Memorial Day. It was frigid with strong northeast winds and rained most of Saturday and Sunday. Monmouth is one of the few tracks left that actually draws crowds on holiday weekends with people betting live. No one was going to attend in this god-awful weather.
3) Horses drift in the stretch of literally every race. Find me a race where everyone runs perfectly straight the whole way. You can hate the whip rule, but to act like horses haven't shifted in and out in the stretch for 100 years with the whip is just a flat-out lie.
4) I don't think the average fan cares about the whip---in fact, banning the whip is probably a positive for the casual fan, and that's who attends Monmouth on the usual 80 degrees and sunny summer holiday weekend. But they do care about the quality of the jockey, and if they think incompetent riders are up, they're less likely to bet.

The rest of it is, honestly, people who have no clue what it's like to be on a horse talking out their azzes. But these are skilled professionals, and if the normal jockey colony came back, the riders could adjust to not using a whip. The question will be if those riders not making their usual income wins out before fans not betting on the product.

I was going to be there on Saturday then the sky opened up on Friday.

They took all the races for the weekend. How many horses were scratched.
A shitload.

I won’t worry about handle being down until we get a nice Saturday with full fields.

Races 38 Carded.

Scratches 76

Allan

lamboguy · 06-01-2021, 11:05 AM

i think i am going to take a ride to the shore this weekend. so far the weather looks good and it should be less traffic than on a holiday weekend.

classhandicapper · 06-01-2021, 11:18 AM

All the handle comparisons for MTH have to be taken with a grain of salt just like comparing last year's pandemic year to the previous year. There are loads of moving parts impacting the comparisons. There may be other metrics that can be help determine if the handle is being impacted negatively and how much, but if it is, IMO, it's silly. IMO, long term this is the right move even if in the short term people don't understand it doesn't matter to gamblers and there much bigger issues out there. As long as jockey safety is handled correctly, this is non issue as far as I am concerned.

GMB@BP · 06-01-2021, 02:01 PM

I dont think having whips or not having whips will make any difference to wagering. I think it may make an impact on outcomes and could have a safety impact but in terms of people wagering I do not think it means much long term.

alhattab · 06-01-2021, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

All the handle comparisons for MTH have to be taken with a grain of salt just like comparing last year's pandemic year to the previous year. There are loads of moving parts impacting the comparisons. There may be other metrics that can be help determine if the handle is being impacted negatively and how much, but if it is, IMO, it's silly. IMO, long term this is the right move even if in the short term people don't understand it doesn't matter to gamblers and there much bigger issues out there. As long as jockey safety is handled correctly, this is non issue as far as I am concerned.

Definitely true. I don't know what Migliore used as comps- presumably Memorial Day weekend 2019- an irrelevant comparable for many of the reasons already cited plus Sat 2019 featured a bundled stakes day. But to get the facts out there:

Sat: $2.9M v $5.9M
Sun: $2.7M v $3.9M
Mon: $2.5M v $3.7M

Dismal #s by any accounting, but the big ? is what is Monmouth's expected handle for the weekend? Very hard to pinpoint. Some relevant data points without getting into details of total # of runners:

Sat 5/11/19 total handle was $3.4 million under fast/firm conditions.

Sun 5/12/19 (Mothers' Day) was run under Nor' Easter conditions similar to this past weekend- sloppy and off-turf. Total handle was just over $2 million

Sun 5/26/18 weather was cloudy and 8200 people on hand, but conditions were sloppy and off-turf. Total handle was $3.2 million

Another comp that may be telling is compared to Pimlico, which ran under very similar weather and track conditions. Pimlico's total handle for the weekend was $8.5 million vs Mth's $8.1 million, with Pimlico running 5 or 6 fewer races. In 2019, Mth's total handle was $13.5 million compared to Pimlico's $8.1 million, and the 2019 Pimlico number included $1.2 million in the Jackpot Pick Six on Monday (mandatory payout) while 2021 featured a sizable carryover and solid play- about $400k for the weekend- but no mandatory payout. I look at the Monmouth and Maryland comps from time-to-time, and I'm pretty sure Monmouth routinely outhandles Maryland. Maybe more pronounced when running at Lrl v Pim.

I think the Mth to Pim comparison may be the most apples-to-apples one could find, and I think it suggests bettors have sought out alternative product.

Zman179 · 06-04-2021, 05:53 AM

I think that any comparison to last year’s handles won’t be fair considering that Monmouth attracted a good amount of handle in 2020 simply because many racetracks were closed due to the pandemic. Comparing 2019 handles to this year would be a fairer statistic.

geroge.burns99 · 06-04-2021, 11:05 PM

Monmouth's doing alright

Friday June 4 TH

Six card race ....remember these cards are drawn way in advance

Total Purses $229K

Total Handle $1,100,000

I dont think they even made enough to cover the purses

Yes, It was another bad weather day

OK, with that said

Belmont Day will be perfect weather all around here...

Lets see what happens ....

GB

alhattab · 06-06-2021, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

All the handle comparisons for MTH have to be taken with a grain of salt just like comparing last year's pandemic year to the previous year. There are loads of moving parts impacting the comparisons. There may be other metrics that can be help determine if the handle is being impacted negatively and how much, but if it is, IMO, it's silly. IMO, long term this is the right move even if in the short term people don't understand it doesn't matter to gamblers and there much bigger issues out there. As long as jockey safety is handled correctly, this is non issue as far as I am concerned.

June 6 may offer the best apples to apples handle comparisons. June 9, 2019 was the Sunday after the Belmont. Good conditions at Mth both days. 2019 total handle was $4.3 million. Handle for 6/6/21 was $3.3 million, so off 23% or so. Off track was $3.8 v $3.1 off about 18%. On track handle for 2019 was about 3x this year- 13k on track I suspect for an Irish festival in 2019. It was hot at Mth Sunday and a much better beach day compared to ideal Jersey Shore conditions for Mth in 2019 (much cooler) but that has no relevance to the off track handle. Not a good comp at all esp with National handles continuing to show growth

Maryland handle was +20% - $2.4M (Pim) v $2.0M (Lrl) despite running 2 fewer races. GP was $6.7M 2021 v $4.6M (sloppy, off turf, which I’m sure helped Mth, ) in 2019

RunDustyRun · 06-06-2021, 09:27 PM

Beautifully day...no triple crown to go against...handle 25 percent down vs last year while most tracks handles are up...let Baffert take the money while your track flounders...and they say no whips would make no difference...

Elkchester Road · 06-06-2021, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Beautifully day...no triple crown to go against...handle 25 percent down vs last year while most tracks handles are up...let Baffert take the money while your track flounders...and they say no whips would make no difference...

I am sure Major racetracks are seeing this and now know that no whips is a topic that isn't eligible for discussion.

For this...a debt of gratitude is owed to the Shithole on the Jersey Shore.

alhattab · 06-06-2021, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alhattab

June 6 may offer the best apples to apples handle comparisons. June 9, 2019 was the Sunday after the Belmont. Good conditions at Mth both days. 2019 total handle was $4.3 million. Handle for 6/6/21 was $3.3 million, so off 23% or so. Off track was $3.8 v $3.1 off about 18%. On track handle for 2019 was about 3x this year- 13k on track I suspect for an Irish festival in 2019. It was hot at Mth Sunday and a much better beach day compared to ideal Jersey Shore conditions for Mth in 2019 (much cooler) but that has no relevance to the off track handle. Not a good comp at all esp with National handles continuing to show growth

Maryland handle was +20% - $2.4M (Pim) v $2.0M (Lrl) despite running 2 fewer races. GP was $6.7M 2021 v $4.6M (sloppy, off turf, which I’m sure helped Mth, ) in 2019

Also CD was sloppy/off in 2019 (about $3.3M) v 2021 (about $5.1M). Mth definitely benefitted significantly from the poor conditions at both GP and CD on these comparable days

geroge.burns99 · 06-07-2021, 06:28 AM

I guess we all dont know anything and should go elsewhere....

Looks like you should be the one taking a walk....

and since your post I guess the walking started.....

geroge.burns99 · 06-07-2021, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elkchester Road

I am sure Major racetracks are seeing this and now know that no whips is a topic that isn't eligible for discussion.

For this...a debt of gratitude is owed to the Shithole on the Jersey Shore.

thanks to Joe Bravo and team....

too bad the scabs are more greedy than intelligent on the matter

castaway01 · 06-07-2021, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

thanks to Joe Bravo and team....

too bad the scabs are more greedy than intelligent on the matter

Isn't a "scab" someone who crosses a picket line? You act like Joe Bravo isn't riding at other tracks while this is happening.

I don't understand the incredible anger this issue brings up in some of you. I know some are trolls and others are triggered by getting up in the morning, but the sheer joy in seeing the track do badly because they don't want horses whipped...just bizarre. Fitting for this site, but bizarre.

onefast99 · 06-07-2021, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

Isn't a "scab" someone who crosses a picket line? You act like Joe Bravo isn't riding at other tracks while this is happening.

I don't understand the incredible anger this issue brings up in some of you. I know some are trolls and others are triggered by getting up in the morning, but the sheer joy in seeing the track do badly because they don't want horses whipped...just bizarre. Fitting for this site, but bizarre.

I also didn’t know Paco and Nik Juarez and Ferrer were scabs. These guys risk their lives to get on these horses and it’s a shame that somebody thinks for whatever reason that they are any sort of scab. Joe Bravo has a right not to ride and so does anyone else who decided not to ride at Monmouth Park. Saturday and Sunday were two really good days of racing lots of great competition and like anything else in life where change occurs you get used to it and move on!