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Old 06-07-2019, 07:48 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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G1 R9 Belmont Met Mile 6/9/19

Arguably the race of the weekend. Heck with that, it is the race of the weekend.

Over the last decade this race has rarely produced anything less than a great performance or an incredible race. The field is stocked and loaded this year with serious contenders abound.

Coal Front: 7 for 9 lifetime and on a 3 race win streak. Yet to win a G1 race, but is prime to knock that door down Saturday. Only his 3rd race in 2019, but his last was his best performance to date in the Godolphin Mile. Has to be respected as a major contender.

McKinzie: Take away his BC Classic last year and this guy has hit the Exacta in every race of his life. He has also beat a lot of damn good horses along the way. A 1 turn mile seems to hit this guy square in the mouth and he is very much a deserving favorite. Mike Smith has been on his back every time, and that doesn't change. The horse to beat.

Mitole: The 'NOW' horse could be ready for a huge performance if he can stretch his 6/7F speed out to the 1 turn Belmont mile. This is a measuring stick race for this guy as he hasn't exactly faced the best of the best and is really now getting into the deep end of the waters. Has never missed the board in any race in his life, and should be as ready as any to run a monster. An obvious contender.

Thunder Snow: The hits keep coming. This guy has only won a mere $16 million in his career including 2 Dubai World Cup victories. Maybe a mile isn't his preferred distance, but he is awfully tough to dismiss at a decent price.

Tale of Silence: Been away for a couple of months, and has fired some really solid works at this very track since then. Connections were obviously pointing to this track, if not this very race. 3 for 5 at Belmont and the distance suits him fine. Doesn't stick out from a form perspective, but there a lot of things to like about this guy at a very likely huge price.

Promises Fulfilled: There is never any doubt what he'll do, and that is get out to the lead and wall everybody off. That was a massive effort in his last only to fade late to Mitole. With a track favoring front runners, can it be enough for him this time around?

Firenze Fire: Looks to be the wise guy horse, and why not? He is 3 for 3 at Belmont, and 3 for 5 going a mile. It is the the Runhappy Met Mile, and he won the Runhappy prep for this very race. He has won a lot of races, and his form definitely screams that this is the race they have been pointing to for a while.

Pavel: While he has run less races than FF, and certainly never won as many or hit the board as many times as FF, he has actually won over $750K more. He always seems to be oddly placed, but also always seems to pick up some pieces along the way. It is still really hard to see him being in the mix with this field at a 1 turn mile.

Prince Lucky: Scratch off his sloppy track races, and this guy belongs in here. A 4YO on the improve with 2 Graded Stakes wins this year, and can easily sit and come off the pace of what could be a contentious pace. Add in Pletcher and Johnny V, and nobody should sleep on this guy amid the big name horses in here.

SUMMARY: This race is absolutely loaded. Pick any of the 9 and you could be absolutely right, and nobody should deny your opinion. Huge race in horizontals, that I need to have a sleep on to make an 'expert' opinion.

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 06-07-2019 at 07:51 PM.
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:04 PM   #2
Aerocraft67
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I'm pretty enamored with the McKinzie here. Speed, class, pace setup, connections. But why settle for a short price with so much quality in the field?

Thunder Snow and Pavel are turning back in distance toward favorable sprint pedigrees. They've accumulated gobs of class and can run late into this hot pace. The is practically kicked to the curb at 20-1 but has the best late run in the field beyond the overmatched .

Unappetizing to bet the speed here but I do like Promises Fulfilled at a price. Just awfully tough to wire this field with two others vying to do so. He seems least apt to rate among the three speeds. Also not one to settle for second, although he's stayed for third a few times. He also has to go the extra panel like . But you get 4x the odds and extra class with .

Surely Firenze Fire has a chance, but his record ranks just below several of these, yet you look to pay 4-1 as third choice. Doesn't have any more late run than the three leaders in front of him. A fave to be against.

Prince Lucky also not without a chance, his Hal's Hope puts him in this mix, but that's it other than Pletcher training him. Won his next vs. softer then caught a sloppy track, so could well run back to that big race. Both & are more promising choices with similar running styles. Can't bet them all, but I might have another look at a big price.

I might swallow the short price on buoyed by & and maybe or since I'm dismissing the second and third ML choices.
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Old 06-08-2019, 07:04 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Aerocraft67 View Post
I'm pretty enamored with the McKinzie here. Speed, class, pace setup, connections. But why settle for a short price with so much quality in the field?

Thunder Snow and Pavel are turning back in distance toward favorable sprint pedigrees. They've accumulated gobs of class and can run late into this hot pace. The is practically kicked to the curb at 20-1 but has the best late run in the field beyond the overmatched .

Unappetizing to bet the speed here but I do like Promises Fulfilled at a price. Just awfully tough to wire this field with two others vying to do so. He seems least apt to rate among the three speeds. Also not one to settle for second, although he's stayed for third a few times. He also has to go the extra panel like . But you get 4x the odds and extra class with .

Surely Firenze Fire has a chance, but his record ranks just below several of these, yet you look to pay 4-1 as third choice. Doesn't have any more late run than the three leaders in front of him. A fave to be against.

Prince Lucky also not without a chance, his Hal's Hope puts him in this mix, but that's it other than Pletcher training him. Won his next vs. softer then caught a sloppy track, so could well run back to that big race. Both & are more promising choices with similar running styles. Can't bet them all, but I might have another look at a big price.

I might swallow the short price on buoyed by & and maybe or since I'm dismissing the second and third ML choices.
I think the 6 has a BIG shot today but I'm curious to know what you mean by "class"?? Didn't the 3 just beat the 6 as a shorter price five weeks ago?

Do the horses know what class they're in? Is class just an outdated term that was thrown around before the public had access to quality performance figures?

Anyways... good luck and happy Belmont day
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Old 06-08-2019, 07:55 AM   #4
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I think the 6 has a BIG shot today but I'm curious to know what you mean by "class"?? Didn't the 3 just beat the 6 as a shorter price five weeks ago?

Do the horses know what class they're in? Is class just an outdated term that was thrown around before the public had access to quality performance figures?
I'm not the right guy and this thread isn't the right place to litigate class as a handicapping factor, but suffice to say it's an accepted fundamental aspect, and I'll try to answer your question about this runner in this race.

The has more class because he's faced consistently tougher competition and ran in higher grades of races than the . The may have prevailed when they hooked up last, but has the more seasoned record of high quality racing. He's run bigger speed figs than as well.

I'm a TFUS shop so I use its figures to assess class rather than parse out individual race conditions and results of runners coming out of those races. BRIS has class figs, too.

I put more emphasis on class in high quality races like this one. I also use class to try and find a legitimate price that's not as obvious, and bet, as a high last out speed figure, like the .

Plenty of races are won by horses without the best speed figs others bet, and some of those are attributable to class.

I always remember someone on this board years ago articulating how a classier horse might intimidate another trying to make a move in a race, eyeballing him, "try me." I'm no equine expert, but there's a pecking order of a pack animal and class gets at that. So, yes, they kinda do know what class they're in.
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Old 06-08-2019, 09:12 AM   #5
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I'm not the right guy and this thread isn't the right place to litigate class as a handicapping factor, but suffice to say it's an accepted fundamental aspect, and I'll try to answer your question about this runner in this race.

The has more class because he's faced consistently tougher competition and ran in higher grades of races than the . The may have prevailed when they hooked up last, but has the more seasoned record of high quality racing. He's run bigger speed figs than as well.

I'm a TFUS shop so I use its figures to assess class rather than parse out individual race conditions and results of runners coming out of those races. BRIS has class figs, too.

I put more emphasis on class in high quality races like this one. I also use class to try and find a legitimate price that's not as obvious, and bet, as a high last out speed figure, like the .

Plenty of races are won by horses without the best speed figs others bet, and some of those are attributable to class.

I always remember someone on this board years ago articulating how a classier horse might intimidate another trying to make a move in a race, eyeballing him, "try me." I'm no equine expert, but there's a pecking order of a pack animal and class gets at that. So, yes, they kinda do know what class they're in.
Fair enough. For what it's worth, I do think Promises Fulfilled has an "alpha" fighting quality to him.... if he gets eyeballed, he's going to fight. Whether that's class or not, I'm not sure.

Mitole probably more like a 15-1 shot in here considering the likely race dynamics. Good luck to those playing him. Thinking an "A" race from the 6,7 or 8 will be good enough to get it done. They're the 3 fastest adjusting for weight.
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Old 06-08-2019, 09:24 AM   #6
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Wow, just took a look (it is a free race at tfus) and there are some beasts in here. Although a real good horse the 1 on the rail will have a tough trip. 8 and 9 may work out good trips, if the track is favoring speed then the 6 looks good. I'll look some more but these two days are great for racing.
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Old 06-08-2019, 11:27 AM   #7
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Coal Front drawing the rail really may change the dynamics here. If he doesnt go then he is going to get shuffled back since there is some speed here that are going. Mitole also being inside make it more difficult to work out a comfortable trip. Should be a legit pace for all, cant see any horse getting a cozy lead.
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Old 06-08-2019, 11:47 AM   #8
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McKenzie rolls here
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Old 06-08-2019, 12:08 PM   #9
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McKenzie rolls here
This is one of the best fields assembled in a race in recent memory.

I'd be surprised if I went over the Bc-Mile's recent years, and thought any of those fields were better than this year's Met Mile.

Kind of an unfair comparison, because we have top milers and top Classic contenders all in one race here.

McKinzie looks like a single to me. He's a top horse, in general. He also 'jumped off the screen' when I watched his recent work.

The one fault that I've ever seen from McKenzie, is that he once resented the whip, and swished his tail when whipped. -I have not noticed this recently, but I haven't looked for it. So, I'd want to quickly check the stretch-run of his most recent race, and maybe check who the jockey was vs. today.

Barring any warning signs, he looks like a cold 'single' to me, regardless of how great this field shapes up underneath.

I don't feel this is a tremendous opinion; he's at least an 'A', on everyone else's ticket as well.
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Old 06-08-2019, 12:17 PM   #10
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Can see the and the hooking up early, not good for the , feel the distance is not right for him. The track seemed to be favoring speed yesterday, and the first race today looked about the same. Of those 2, keeping the for underneath.

McKinzie looks strong for the win, Thunder Snow will be close, also going to throw in the and for prices.
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Old 06-08-2019, 12:54 PM   #11
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This is one of the best fields assembled in a race in recent memory.

I'd be surprised if I went over the Bc-Mile's recent years, and thought any of those fields were better than this year's Met Mile.

Kind of an unfair comparison, because we have top milers and top Classic contenders all in one race here.

McKinzie looks like a single to me. He's a top horse, in general. He also 'jumped off the screen' when I watched his recent work.

The one fault that I've ever seen from McKenzie, is that he once resented the whip, and swished his tail when whipped. -I have not noticed this recently, but I haven't looked for it. So, I'd want to quickly check the stretch-run of his most recent race, and maybe check who the jockey was vs. today.

Barring any warning signs, he looks like a cold 'single' to me, regardless of how great this field shapes up underneath.

I don't feel this is a tremendous opinion; he's at least an 'A', on everyone else's ticket as well.
I would re-evaulate that given the track, in fact he may be a major play against.

Use Coal Front, Promises Fulfilled and Mitole.
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Old 06-08-2019, 01:24 PM   #12
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I’m sort of against McKinzie in this spot. He has a dressed up record IMO. Biggest race is probably vs. Battle Of Midway. Agree with speed is good now but I can see some closing happening here if pace sets up. Thunder is the class here and at a square price, he’s run well before on this strip. Firenze Fire also figures to get a stalking spot closer up and may get first jump. Fire loves this strip. Last was a walk over and Recruiting Ready fired nicely yesterday just missing the place in True North. There’s no way I can single that fave, he’s in deep today.
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Old 06-08-2019, 02:52 PM   #13
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McKinzie sits 3-4 and swallows them up in the stretch.
probably gets the place.
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Old 06-08-2019, 03:08 PM   #14
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I think McKinzie will win.

I'll also key him to the in exactas.
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:19 PM   #15
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Barring any warning signs, he looks like a cold 'single' to me, regardless of how great this field shapes up underneath.

I don't feel this is a tremendous opinion; he's at least an 'A', on everyone else's ticket as well.

in fact, completely void of value.

Terrible price on McKenzie.

Could have had Guarana @ 9/5, maybe Tacitus 2/1-5/2 range, but this guy is not a value today.

going to root him home for the Daily Double, but no other wagers on him.

aren't bad prices , track is crazy fast, so you could see any number of reactionary rides.
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