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Old 04-13-2019, 01:29 PM   #1
Tom
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Misleading Statistics

Aqu, R6 Doll

Stats in PPs say 1st Sart (44 .27 $1.60)
Mike Beer, in his comments, says "Servis is ever dangerous but has had little success with first time starters in NY over the past 5 years going just 2 for 41 though both those winners did come this year."

So what starts do you go by? 27% overall, 5% at NYRA, or making up at NY this year? Without Beer's comments, you are missing some key information.
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Old 04-13-2019, 01:50 PM   #2
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Your looking at the toughest trainer to get a read on, FTS have only a few works usually, spread months apart! Good Luck, LOL you need a wire tap in the barn!
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:32 PM   #3
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It's just one of those things where you probably aren't going to know unless someone points it out like Beer in this instance.

If you enjoy tinkering with the trainer tool in Formulator you could find this but probably not practical to be doing that with every trainer for every race.

Long story short, whenever I happen to find something like this I just add a note to my "trainer profile" for that outfit. Anytime a 30% trainer has an angle that is only 5% I find it very meaningful.
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:22 PM   #4
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Paralysis by analysis

get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:58 PM   #5
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get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
Wow, welcome back. It has sure been a while doc.
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Old 04-23-2019, 11:13 PM   #6
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First start after a 9-year layoff?
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Old 04-24-2019, 09:31 AM   #7
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Welcome back 46!
I thought I was in an old thread for a minute.
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Old 04-25-2019, 05:36 AM   #8
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Welcome back 46!
I thought I was in an old thread for a minute.
If you're a horseplayer then chances are this is an "old" thread.
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Old 04-25-2019, 09:43 AM   #9
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Highnote, I was betting horses when "Little Andy" was Andy Beyer!~ ( not quite!)
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Old 04-25-2019, 12:18 PM   #10
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Highnote, I was betting horses when "Little Andy" was Andy Beyer!~ ( not quite!)
I'm close. I have been betting since Beyer had hair.
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Old 04-28-2019, 10:06 PM   #11
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get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
I did a double take too.

46zilzal, I'm happy to find you alive and kicking.
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Old 04-29-2019, 11:24 AM   #12
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With FTS, doesn't the quality of the trainer's stock play a major role in his results? Maybe Servis' horses in recent years have needed more time to mature.
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Old 05-02-2019, 11:22 AM   #13
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With FTS, doesn't the quality of the trainer's stock play a major role in his results? Maybe Servis' horses in recent years have needed more time to mature.
I think that's partly true, but it's probably more reflected in their overall win percentage. If a 30% trainer is suddenly winning 8%, the firsters will likely be part of that.

I find second-time starters to be more of a "trainer play" because you get a little better odds with the sudden improvement the horses make. Of course the stock matters, but not going all out the first time and then "all systems go" for the second start is a trainer intent thing that you can track (and sometimes it even holds up for years).
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