Saratoga LATE Pick 5

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Yes correct plus its the greatest value out there. Friday I played a $7 pick 5. 2x3x6x1x1. 3/5 5/2 7/1 3/5 3/5.

Parlay was $200. Paid $848

I couldn't separate the 2 chalks in race 1. Same in race 2 ( 3 chalks). Hated the chalks in race 3 but had no single horse to turn to. Found the last 2 winners to be near cinches but had no price.

If I bet each race, I lose the first 3 races probably. I couldve played a cold double in races 4&5 (I did as well for $200). Paid $8 bucks but the value was in the pick 5 as I played 36 combos ahead of the $8 double but got 100/1 instead of 36/1.

That's 1 example of a chalk sequence.

At Belmont. My only specific opinion in 1 recent sequence was in race 5. 9/5 shot. I couldve bet 1000 to win and get 2800.

I knew that races 1234 all had chaos possibilities and knew the chalk would lose at least 2 legs. Bet 1000 and hit a $96k pick 5. And that's with another chalk winning race 3.

If I bet each race individually, I probably lose 4/5 with my only winning ticket being a decent smash on the 9/5.

I leveraged my bankroll to buy the tickets that the public couldn't or wouldn't buy. 4 logical winners in races 1234 with my 9/5, paid $96k.

Do you find that EVERY New York pick-5 is "playable"...or do you sometimes sit it out for the day, even though you have still done all the work?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you find that EVERY New York pick-5 is "playable"...or do you sometimes sit it out for the day, even though you have still done all the work?

Absolutely! Some weeks its unplayable 3 out of 5 days. (Too chalky, every horse is unplayable in 2 or 3 races etc).

Today I kicked myself. Only had 1 opinion. Liked the 1&5 in race 4. Didn't / couldn't bank on prices in races 1235. So I played a small pick 5 just in case I was perfect. Bet the real money in the early pick 4.

I hit the pick 4 (paid 5000 or so) and missed the pick 5 because I didnt play it seriously. Paid 24k plus.

I've learned that you're either all in or out when it comes to the pick 5.

Today was 1 day (out of the last 3 months) where I half assed it (the pick 5 play) and regret it.

I didn't want to go 356 in race 1 and watch the 3/5 pig win and invest too much. And didn't want to single the 3 , who I hated (or single anyone else)

[thaskalos]

For some reason, I haven't yet warmed-up to the pick-5. But you might change my mind about it.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

For some reason, I haven't yet warmed-up to the pick-5. But you might change my mind about it.

Besides the value, here's what I love the most.

The prepared and well rounded will crush the 90% prepared and 90% well rounded.

Missing 1 nugget of info, will crush those guys.

Also, ticket construction is my strength. Others maybe not.

Most people look to hit the pick 5. I look to crush it if I am right 5 times.

The strategy all depends on the sequence.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Besides the value, here's what I love the most.

The prepared and well rounded will crush the 90% prepared and 90% well rounded.

Missing 1 nugget of info, will crush those guys.

Also, ticket construction is my strength. Others maybe not.

Most people look to hit the pick 5. I look to crush it if I am right 5 times.

The strategy all depends on the sequence.

My problem is that I almost never have a positive opinion about 5 consecutive races...and I hate to use the "scatter-gun" approach to cover an otherwise unappealing race. I have trained myself to try and crush the races that I really like...and to totally avoid the races that I can't get a grip on.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Absolutely! Some weeks its unplayable 3 out of 5 days. (Too chalky, every horse is unplayable in 2 or 3 races etc).

Today I kicked myself. Only had 1 opinion. Liked the 1&5 in race 4. Didn't / couldn't bank on prices in races 1235. So I played a small pick 5 just in case I was perfect. Bet the real money in the early pick 4.

I hit the pick 4 (paid 5000 or so) and missed the pick 5 because I didnt play it seriously. Paid 24k plus.

I've learned that you're either all in or out when it comes to the pick 5.

Today was 1 day (out of the last 3 months) where I half assed it (the pick 5 play) and regret it.

I didn't want to go 356 in race 1 and watch the 3/5 pig win and invest too much. And didn't want to single the 3 , who I hated (or single anyone else)

When you start posting your pick 4 and 5 tickets here so we can see i will believe you. Until then you are just a wannabe handicapper.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme

When you start posting your pick 4 and 5 tickets here so we can see i will believe you. Until then you are just a wannabe handicapper.

Dear Dontellmeshowme,

See "greatest racetrack scores" thread. All the tickets I reference are right there.

Here's a glass of water. Dont want you choking to death now....

[EMD4ME]

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding.

Now bug off you miserable troll

[Donttellmeshowme]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding.

Now bug off you miserable troll

Any reason why you dont post the ticket after the first race goes off in the sequence?

[Donttellmeshowme]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding.

Now bug off you miserable troll

So you win 24K on a pick 5 and your the best handicapper around? When you show me your a consistent winner i will believe you and jump on board.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme

So you win 24K on a pick 5 and your the best handicapper around? When you show me your a consistent winner i will believe you and jump on board.

I did that too.

You didn't see the post (my wagering statements) with approximately 400k bet and 500k returned. ?

What next? Do I need to show up at your house and give you some blood? I'm tired of the haters.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme

Any reason why you dont post the ticket after the first race goes off in the sequence?

Yeah,

1) I'm too busy watching the pan and head on replays of the race prior then:

2) putting my detailed trip notes into my formulator.

3)I'm too busy ticket constructing cover pick 4's and crush job pick 4s.


But I have posted what I'm live with after a ticket starts. See the Emerald Downs 2016 thread. Just last week or so.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I did that too.

You didn't see the post (my wagering statements) with approximately 400k bet and 500k returned. ?

What next? Do I need to show up at your house and give you some blood? I'm tired of the haters.

Post after the race starts and you would have more credibility.

Hell i won $4500 Thursday but you dont see me jumping up and down like im the worlds greatest.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My problem is that I almost never have a positive opinion about 5 consecutive races...and I hate to use the "scatter-gun" approach to cover an otherwise unappealing race. I have trained myself to try and crush the races that I really like...and to totally avoid the races that I can't get a grip on.

Sorry thaskalos I missed this post.

It depends on the sequence. I hate spreading when I don't think I can get prices.

Tomorrow , I'm passing. 1) I didn't do enough work but 2) I hate the 2 chalks in race 1 but they might win at short prices. I refuse to go all and get a 3/5. 3) other races just have 1 loser after the other in them (race 2).

Tomorrow is a pick 5 where you can overspend 2000 and 1) lose or 2) get back 300 bucks and cry

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme

Post after the race starts and you would have more credibility.

Hell i won $4500 Thursday but you dont see me jumping up and down like im the worlds greatest.

Yes...but, what if you had won $100,000 last Thursday?