Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-22-2018, 02:00 PM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
correctly determing the exacta place horse

I use the twinespires tote board for down loading wps and exacta pools into excel.

I have hundreds if not thousand such files going back years.
The down loads for each race range incrementally from 4 min to 1 or 0 minutes to post.

For the past several months I have been looking at this data to find occasions when the exacta $1 return will outperform the $1 win return.
As of now, I have has some limited success in determining which horses, placing 2nd will accomplish this.

I have been posting many such plays live in the selections forum.
You should note here that Iím picking the place horse and bet size, not the winner. Thatís left up to the viewer
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 02:15 PM   #2
AltonKelsey
Registered User
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,352
Rep Power: 4 AltonKelsey will become famous soon enough
You say 'outperform the winner' but talk about the place horse, and saying the winner is unknown.





Make sense to you?
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 02:34 PM   #3
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
You say 'outperform the winner' but talk about the place horse, and saying the winner is unknown.





Make sense to you?
The intent is to offer the win bettor a possibility of improving his return by matching his win selection with my place selections.
here is an example of a play I just posted on the selection forum

Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
"Finger Lakes
Race
1

Post
1:10

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,160"
Code:
pgno	bet size
1	493
2	0
3	0
4	0
5	507
6	0
7	0
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0
	1000.00
the 2/1 exacta wins. $1 exacta track payout was $14.90
your $1 win bet returned $6.10
our $1 exacta payout was $7.35
the flx book % is 1.21

our exacta $1 play exceeded the win by 1.20.


of course the play does not always win, so the overall exacta returns must exceed the win returns by a substantial amount.. the proof is in the data.
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

Last edited by formula_2002; 05-22-2018 at 02:37 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 02:58 PM   #4
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
I'll mention something further, it aligns with the "late money" thread.

at 4 min to post the $1 exacta return was $6.89
at 3 min to post $7.30
and at 0 min to post it was $6.62
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 03:34 PM   #5
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
here are the results for another posted play

pax r4 today

the 3/7 exacta wins. $1 exacta track payout was $12.50
your $1 win bet returned $2.80
our $1 exacta payout was $5.95
the flx book % is 1.21

our exacta $1 play exceeded the win by 2.13
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 04:30 PM   #6
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
as good fortune would have it the four posted exacta plays on todays cards all returned much more than the win plays

$7.35 to $6.10
$5.95 to $2.80
$14.90 to $8.30
$17.40 to $10.70
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 05:06 PM   #7
AltonKelsey
Registered User
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,352
Rep Power: 4 AltonKelsey will become famous soon enough
That explains everything. Keep up the good work
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 11:19 PM   #8
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
just a note.

at a 15% track takeout

to make 10% profit by using this method of play, the $1 ex payout/ $1 win ratio payout needs to be 185 % at a win rate of 70%

to make 10% profit , at a win rate of 60% the ratio needs to be 216

..not easily done
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-30-2018, 07:12 PM   #9
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,156
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
here are the results for 193 races

* calculations based on a successful win bet

Attached Images
File Type: png 193 play recap.PNG (46.0 KB, 18 views)
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
To Compete with Sports Betting must lower takeout/breakage on higher churn wagers?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.