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Old 09-14-2020, 12:25 PM   #16
dryrunguy
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Sorry, my last post was poorly worded. I'll clarify. I was talking about those times when you think you found a hidden gem in a field at 12/1 on the ML and then the darned thing goes off at 8/5 at post time. Or when I use a 3/1 horse and it goes off at 1/5. Drives me nuts. You can adapt if it is the first race in the sequence, but if it's any other race in the sequence, you're stuck with it.

That said, the opposite happens from time to time as well. E.g., when you use a 4/1 shot and it ultimately goes off at 10/1 at post. But that kind of luck doesn't generally bounce my way.
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Old 09-14-2020, 01:43 PM   #17
AndyC
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I'm curious the degree to which you all are comfortable singling horses in multi-race wagers. It seems like this is an expected tactic, especially in Pick 5 and Pick 6 wagers. (For Pick 5s and Pick 6s, it's almost impossible to create an affordable ticket without singling a horse.)

I'm not sure it necessarily has to be a given.

I have been burned SO MANY TIMES by singling a horse in multi-race wagers... The horse doesn't show up, the horse dumps its rider at the break, the horse gets mugged on the far turn by a riderless horse that dumped its rider at the break, the horse has traffic trouble... That list goes on and on.

I'm just curious how you all approach singling. Thanks in advance for your insightful and helpful responses.

With regard to P-5s and P-6s, I would only single a horse I thought had a 40% or greater chance of winning. IMO singling a horse that has value because it should be 5-1 and but you will probably get 10-1 or better is a fool's game. Those horses are much better leveraged in short horizontals or vertical bets.

For races I don't single in P5s and P6s I try to get at least 50% coverage in my probability of having a winner.

The overriding theme in betting a P5 or P6 is to get 5 or 6 winners! Duh. As such I don't throw out an even money horse because I believe it should be 2-1. To do so would throw out a horse giving 33% coverage of a win. A long horizontal is not necessarily an underlay because it includes a horse that will be an underlay but including more than 1 might be a good reason to skip the bet.
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Old 09-15-2020, 09:36 AM   #18
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Every now and then you can predict what? The favorite in an upcoming race? Handicap a race with your handicapping method of choice, and your top selection will end up as the favorite about 85% of the time...even if you are a novice.
I played the late P5 at Kentucky Downs this past Saturday. Needing to single in one race, I chose R10 and singled Zulu Alpha, which by my handicapping method appeared to me to be the one horse most likely to win out of the 5 races. As it turned out I hit 4 of the 5 races, losing on the race I singled. Zulu Alpha came in third, beaten by my 3rd and 2nd ranked horses respectively. Of course Zulu was the crowd favorite as well.
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Old 09-15-2020, 10:25 AM   #19
Robert Fischer
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As it turned out I hit 4 of the 5 races, losing on the race I singled. Zulu Alpha came in third, beaten by my 3rd and 2nd ranked horses respectively.
Are you familiar w/ Crist's A-B-C method?
4/5 A's and either a 'B' or a 'C' would have hit. (also a must read part of any horseplayers library).
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Old 09-15-2020, 04:31 PM   #20
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Are you familiar w/ Crist's A-B-C method?
4/5 A's and either a 'B' or a 'C' would have hit. (also a must read part of any horseplayers library).
Robert, I'm familiar with the concept and do use it to construct multiple tickets. Was really pressed for time Saturday and made a quick caveman. I really need to order Crist's book. I'm familiar with his method only from what I've learned in this forum.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:16 AM   #21
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  • SINGLE A = low priced horse that has a huge edge in win% and/or value. All in!
  • Group of 'A's = Group of most likely winners, with perhaps a big value include. Contender.
  • B's = at most two B's in my multi-race sequence, only mix with 'A's. Not one of my top horses, but he could definitely win.
  • C's = only one C allowed in my multi-race sequence, and the rest must be A's, I'm relatively 'against' this long-shot or dangerous unknown.
  • 'X' = If this horse wins, I lose. Betting against these 'Tosses'.


For an interesting change of perception, - try look at exclusions, and various non-single designations (C, B,As,etc...) as a way of 'laying' or betting-against horses.

Hardly an epiphany (this is how the pari-mutuel system always works), but it can sometimes make things more understandable, especially the A-B-C method.
Especially in races like Kentucky Downs, or the Breeders Cup, where there are often more usable horses than clear tosses.
- You want to eliminate the non-winners, and save money by leaning on your 'A's.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-16-2020 at 10:20 AM.
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Old 09-17-2020, 04:04 PM   #22
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Maybe it's just my memory but I can't remember being burnt by singles as much as having my single coming in but losing the next race where I spread.

For me, the best single is when I can't come up with a clear next pick. When the choice is the one horse I clearly like or going 4-deep it's single time.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:09 PM   #23
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I single only as a means to play a cheap ticket and still be "in the game" when it comes to pick5 or pick6 tickets. I have missed many times by playing pick 4 with a a-ab-a ab, b-ab-b-ab having all the winners but not on the same ticket. I also hit the rainbow pick6 at gulfstream last december with 3 singles on a A -AB-A AB-A- AB ticket at a cost of $1.60 and got back a little over $4000. One of the singles being a $23 horse that was 6-1 ML. I don't have the bankroll a lot of others have to spread deep in races and if I can't single some where in the sequence I will pass on the wager all together.That's just me. Its like playing the lottery for me. I buy one ticket to be in. If its meant to be.
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:53 AM   #24
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I prefer this. Obviously, these are my best guesses as to how certain races will be bet.

"A" = any contender that is likely to offer good betting value in the relevant pool

"B" = any contender that that won't be significantly overbet, but that probably won't add much if any value. That could be a 1-1 horse with 40%-45% chance of winning, a 2-1 horse with 25%-30% chance of winning etc.. but if it's a 1-1 horse with a 30% chance of winning, 2-1 with a 20% of winning etc.. it's a toss.

"C" = the occasional bomb I think is very unlikely to win, but offers such exceptional potential value I want him on some of my "A" tickets.

X = all others.

Most tickets are just As and Bs with a heavy focus on As.

Every combination must have at least two "A" horses on it or maybe an A and C or I see no reason to go into that pool.

If I can't structure a bet like this because it's too expensive or I can't combine two "A"s because I only have one, I'll just bet those "A" and "C" horses to win or use them in verticals.
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Old 09-18-2020, 04:32 PM   #25
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Everyone is going to get burned more on singles---for obvious reasons. I don't know how people can play Pick 4 or 5 without singles. Changing that single to two horses doubles the price of the ticket. I haven't found that throwing hundreds of dollars at a Pick 4 and hoping for bombs really works. Maybe once in a blue moon you'll hate two odds-on favorites in a sequence and can spread playing against them but it's rare for me to make that bet without really liking a horse or two in the sequence (and singling them).
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:34 PM   #26
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Singles are par for the course when you play these multi pick wagers and unfortunately many of them lose. Even if a horse is 2/5, he likely has at best a 65% chance of winning, which of course means he has a 35% chance of losing. Single 10 of these over time 3 to 4 of them are losing. Now on the 3 to 4 times they lose, you may have lost any how if he won, or the other races chalked up so you shrug it off as no big deal because you wouldn't have gotten much back anyhow. It is on those rare instances when the other races go beautifully, maybe a big longshot with a couple of 5 and 6-1 shots in the mix and you are live for some money if the single wins and he loses. Those are the ones that burn you up. Of course when the single loses in these types of situations it always seems like you 2nd choice wins. Of course that is not the case it just seems like it is. Just like when you are in the last leg, live to 6 horses and it always seems like it if the favorite and a horse you did not use battling it out to the wire.

Now that we are in the days of 20 cent pick six mandatory payouts, singles are less of a need than they used to be. Back in the day, you had a 2 million dollar carryover and it was on a $2 pick six. Try going 6x6x8x3x4x4 (which is a fairly typical desired play for a competitive pick 6) on that. Most of us can't even play that on a 20 cent pick 6, let alone a $2 pick six. So somewhere down the line you are singling somebody(s) most of the time Sometimes you are taking shots, sometimes you are looking for the most likely winner and sometimes you make a play and most of the shots you have taken pan out and the next thing is you are 5 for 5 but you are stuck with a single, who is a horse you like but no way you would would have singled him had you known you were going to be 5 for 5 and alive for $100,000 plus. It is the nature of the beast.

Every day is different. Some days you get home 3 top choices out of your best 5 and two 30-1 shots win the other two legs and you are like that was easy. Play needing 3 of 5 top choices. Other days your "b" choices (I use my 2nd, 3rd, 4th choices as B choices) line the complete pick 6 and you can't get home 1 top choice. Usually it is some kind of mix of A's, B's and C's that 1) either would have been too expensive to cover 2) the right strategy for the day that is of course impossible to know in a advance, though you can make an educated guess or 3) requires that you single in the right place(s) and often involves some handicapping decision somewhere in the mix where you had to choose who was a B and who was a C(or b vs A), you labor for 5 minutes and go with one and hope it doesn't bite you for $50,000 because that could be the difference between hitting the pick 6 or having a worthless 5.

The advantage that the large players have is they do not have to guess. If you are putting enough money into these things you just structure your play so that if the most typical results happen you cash. Obviously they have to weight the likelier possibilities heavier and they can cover a lot of less likely but very possible plays. So while you play a pick 5 on a carryover day and are alive to your AB in the last leg, they are alive to the A for $6 the B's for $3 and a bunch of horses you don't even have for a $1. Also, they are likely not singling anybody on 100% of the tickets.

Still I believe that 20 cent pick 5's and pick 6's make the game a lot easier for the small guy to hit a lot of these. I play 20 cent pick 4's/pick 5's at Woodbine/Mohawk harness for the last 4 years, and that is a lot of plays, as they used to have 1 pick 5 and 2 pick 4's and now they have 2 pick 5's and 2 pick 4's. I play most of them and play most nights. As hard as I work at this game, the pick 4's and pick 5's is the "only" area at this game where I have been profitable, pretty consistently. I keep working at beating this game in other areas, but I haven't gotten there yet, I hope to. Singles are a big part of these plays even at the 20 cent level and many of them will lose. But there is another pick 4 or pick 5 later or the next day, so take them in stride and work on selectivity in these horses.

To me there are 2 types of good singles. A "shot" single, is a good looking price horse who I think might offer good value and I am hoping to get the right longhots in the other legs to let him provide a nice payday. These are generally used when the rest of the pick 4/pick 5 is challenging and without taking the shot I am out of my budget, which is typically up to $80 bucks on a 20 cent pick 4 and up to $120 on a 20 cent pick 5. Generally on shot singles I won't play for as much. So maybe I will bet $40 to $60 on the play rather than $80 to $120. The second type of single is this horse looks clearly best. I harness races there are a ton of these. Of course they lose, and when they lose, I lose. It is the game we play. Trying to beat a horse that lays over a field is probably not the wisest strategy imo.

The mistake I feel I have made the most over the years is that I latch onto singles out of need. The right view point is a horse is either A legit single, A strong "A" (so if you have 2 of these in a sequence you can single both on separate plays, hoping 1 wins) or just a Good A, where you have to use ticketmaker style plays to formulate your play or 2 of 4 or 1 of 3 top choices etc. You can't let the excitement of the carryover force you into bad singles. Another thing I have been guilty of over the years with singles (with thoroughbreds) is poor connections. If you don't have a strong trainers and strong jockey, my opinion is you don't have a strong single. I have lost on so many of these over the years and when you lose a single you just lost your entire opportunity not to mention your investment.

So bottom line is singles are a lot like spouses. What do they say, you can't live with them, you can't live without them. You just got to learn to accept that many will lose. Cover tickets are always an option, but cover tickets usually mean you are thin in the other legs and do you really want to be betting money against a legit single? There are so many other favorites that look vulnerable to me, I would rather try to beat them then try to beat the ones I fully expect to win.
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:42 PM   #27
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Time to single. Today at LA Downs, 2 singles in the P5. First leg was the , who just won. The last single is in the last race, at 10/1.
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:34 PM   #28
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Time to single. Today at LA Downs, 2 singles in the P5. First leg was the , who just won. The last single is in the last race, at 10/1.


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Old 09-22-2020, 07:11 AM   #29
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Time to single. Today at LA Downs, 2 singles in the P5. First leg was the , who just won. The last single is in the last race, at 10/1.
Nice call on the
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Old 10-01-2020, 06:03 PM   #30
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I'm by no means an expert as well on Pick 4+ wagers.

I've opened a "serial wager analysis" thread on the Selections Forum. I'm posting my thoughts on a serial wager a day and would greatly appreciate feedback (both positive and negative). Come on over and join in.

On the concept of singles. I agree you should have one. If you set up ABC tickets, one or two of your A plays could be singles. Then you can go as deep as you can afford on C legs. And the AB ticket is a saver play and press play. Thoughts?

Thanks,
Jeff
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