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Old 07-14-2018, 01:20 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR View Post
The current strategy being employed by syndicates and big betting insiders is clearly one of waiting till the last second

The idea of putting a big bet on early to put other players off is so 1990s

The big players with positive ROI systems don't care if they miss a bet by being shut out. Being shut out will cost them some theoretical profit but the most important thing is to make positive ROI bets. If you put that bet on a bit early these days you can show your hand to your opposition and then your bet can turn ROI negative

Better off being shut out a few times and having ROI 1.03 on $3 million worth of bets than betting earlier and having ROI of 0.99 on $4 million worth of bets

It is impossible to not be shut out in the days of simulcast betting where races clash
If you put in the big bet early, it makes the odds lower, which means the computer teams won't bet as much as there is less meat on the bone for them to chew off. It has nothing to do with putting them off.

If they think horse A should be 2-1 and he is 6-1 on the board, the will bet X. If the same horse is 3-1 on the board due to a much larger bet earlier, the will bet a sum much smaller than X. Thus the person betting 60k has a greater percentage of the pool and an bigger payoff. This isn't about mind games, it is math.
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Old 07-14-2018, 10:13 AM   #137
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It is impossible to not be shut out in the days of simulcast betting where races clash
Between robot betting at the last second and tracks after track showing absolutely no respect tot he bettors by overlapping post times, the game really is not worth the bother theses days.

Even when there are only two tracks running anywhere, they freaking overlap.
No matter how large any track might be, it is STILL a minor league operation.
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Old 07-14-2018, 10:14 AM   #138
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If you put in the big bet early, it makes the odds lower, which means the computer teams won't bet as much as there is less meat on the bone for them to chew off. It has nothing to do with putting them off.

If they think horse A should be 2-1 and he is 6-1 on the board, the will bet X. If the same horse is 3-1 on the board due to a much larger bet earlier, the will bet a sum much smaller than X. Thus the person betting 60k has a greater percentage of the pool and an bigger payoff. This isn't about mind games, it is math.
And so it would be a strategy to make large bets early and then cancel them very late and make new ones?
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Old 07-14-2018, 02:19 PM   #139
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And so it would be a strategy to make large bets early and then cancel them very late and make new ones?
Only if you can bet later than the computer teams. Good luck with that.
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Old 07-14-2018, 02:43 PM   #140
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I was thinking a computer team could do that.
I doubt my $2 would ever be detected!
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Old 07-15-2018, 11:16 PM   #141
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Here is what I don't understand about the CRW teams, and how they make money. Unlike Wall Street, profiting from insider information is perfectly legal in the racing game. Add to that the huge takeout that dwarfs any table game in Las Vegas, and I am unable to see how value can be found in this game, especially when that value is erased by the reduction in odds as soon as the CRW players do their thing. So they see value at 4 to 1, and then one or more teams bang the horse on the win end, and presumably other horses as well, to the point they are no longer value plays.



My best guess, and I am happy to be corrected, is the profit comes from the enormous rebates they get. Then it becomes a game of churning as much through the machines as they can over the year. The tracks could care less, as their goal is to increase handle. So everyone else has 2 choices: take up another activity, or take the abuse.
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Old 07-15-2018, 11:29 PM   #142
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Here is what I don't understand about the CRW teams, and how they make money. Unlike Wall Street, profiting from insider information is perfectly legal in the racing game. Add to that the huge takeout that dwarfs any table game in Las Vegas, and I am unable to see how value can be found in this game, especially when that value is erased by the reduction in odds as soon as the CRW players do their thing. So they see value at 4 to 1, and then one or more teams bang the horse on the win end, and presumably other horses as well, to the point they are no longer value plays.



My best guess, and I am happy to be corrected, is the profit comes from the enormous rebates they get. Then it becomes a game of churning as much through the machines as they can over the year. The tracks could care less, as their goal is to increase handle. So everyone else has 2 choices: take up another activity, or take the abuse.
Your last paragraph pretty much sums it up. They are trying to equalize all the payoffs and then make money on the rebate. They just have to beat the takeout to make money.

Its almost foolproof really.
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Old 07-16-2018, 04:57 PM   #143
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Here is what I don't understand about the CRW teams, and how they make money. Unlike Wall Street, profiting from insider information is perfectly legal in the racing game. Add to that the huge takeout that dwarfs any table game in Las Vegas, and I am unable to see how value can be found in this game, especially when that value is erased by the reduction in odds as soon as the CRW players do their thing. So they see value at 4 to 1, and then one or more teams bang the horse on the win end, and presumably other horses as well, to the point they are no longer value plays.



My best guess, and I am happy to be corrected, is the profit comes from the enormous rebates they get. Then it becomes a game of churning as much through the machines as they can over the year. The tracks could care less, as their goal is to increase handle. So everyone else has 2 choices: take up another activity, or take the abuse.
Spot on. It is a real, and I mean VERY real, problem for the game. If everything is being depressed for average horseplayers and attractive value (i.e. Firenze Fire at 6-1 vs 5-2) is being eliminated, hard core players will be forced to leave the horse racing betting game. This doesn't even address the need to go after new customers. The game won't have many old customers.

I wrote about this for my Gaming Today article. The game will have to decide between short term financial gain or long term customer health.
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:22 PM   #144
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Spot on. It is a real, and I mean VERY real, problem for the game. If everything is being depressed for average horseplayers and attractive value (i.e. Firenze Fire at 6-1 vs 5-2) is being eliminated, hard core players will be forced to leave the horse racing betting game. This doesn't even address the need to go after new customers. The game won't have many old customers.

I wrote about this for my Gaming Today article. The game will have to decide between short term financial gain or long term customer health.
It used to be that you had to get yourself into the small group that was much more informed than a bunch of casual players players in OTB. Now you have to be smarter than other smart people armed with figures, trips, replays, bias notes, trainer patterns, private workout info, databases, and advanced algorithms.

I don't see how you can do it unless you specialize to the point of extreme expertise in a couple of areas and come up with some original metrics.
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Old 07-18-2018, 11:37 AM   #145
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Here is my suggestion to begin addressing this problem. If the tracks need the handle of CRW players, then at least give half the card back to the recreational and semipro players. Shut down access for the computer teams on five races a day. Lower the takeout on those races to something reasonable. Shut off access to the computer wager teams for all stake races as well.



I doubt the tracks do anything. They appear to look at the average player (those that bet at the windows or from home with a regular wagering account) with disdain. The average players have no organization, no union, and no voice. The perception is that if you play a game with an exorbitant takeout, you must have a mental illness and no self control. Therefore, why give any concessions to a group that will wager no matter the takeout. Sure, you will chase out some to other activities, but the CRW guys will keep the handle going.
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Old 07-18-2018, 11:58 AM   #146
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I doubt the tracks do anything.
They won't.
They do not see a problem.
They are getting handle from the whales and as far as everyone goes, "shut up and bet."

Tracks are providing the best game ever - if you doubt it , just ask them.

We will be greeting Martians in Times square long before any track will do anything.
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Old 07-21-2018, 03:48 PM   #147
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I figured he would pull back on the needle after the extra attention, this is from that crazy saturday.. 1/10 0.25 roi.
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Old 07-21-2018, 03:54 PM   #148
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Just went down the drain at 3-5 in the NY Derby at FL.
Alvarado even shipped in to ride.
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:22 PM   #149
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Paddock Pick in the 1st at Del Mar 5-1 entering gate, goes off at 5/2 and wears down 2/5 favorite..
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:09 PM   #150
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I'm going out on a limb here and say I think he was doped up.
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