2017-2018 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.......5-7-10 W/ 1-6-11 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 1-10-9-11
Dutch Out, with a 141% margin (just missed another beauty!)
Quinella – $143.10 – more great value

Lots of late action on the Winner

All in all a good morning!

[FakeNameChanged]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Originally Posted by Nitro

Results - 9-5-10-11
Dutch Win, with 83% margin (late sub w/#7 -)
Quinella – Out
3rd choice Winner got solid late action dropping 5 points @ 5 mins to post

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.9	7.6	11.0	BET	PRF	 
$6	$17	$24	 	 	 
$410	$140	$100	$650	$540	83%
$119	$120	$120	 	 	 

Have to watch that late tote activity especially on a horse which hasn't performed well lately. Funny how Jenny picked-up on #9 physicality and the odds started dropping.

Good morning Nitro, Wasn't the your 6th choice and not the 3rd? Also do you have any programming or insights on early vs. late action, or even steady action throughout the cycle? In my tote watching, it's easier to read early action and react in time over late action. And early action on a horse that just doesn't figure(bad lines, not dropping in class, low pct. jockey, etc) seems to be a key for me. Of course, you said you don't look or use at pp's any more. Thanks for any insight.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Unfortunately you're only looking a one pool. There's lots of other activity going. Besides your "well backed" comment is only relative to the O.A. betting activity on any particular entry. Sorry I can't divulge any more than that. But you might also wonder why I had #6 @ 47/1 in the mix (fin.4th) You're not going to have a clue by looking at just the Win pool.

Sorry, but I look at everything. Closely. Very.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Race 10: Win pool tilt on . Small play on him each way to round out the night....

Wasn't watching but I talked about the lucky number thing earlier.


It's a very superstitious crowd

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good morning Nitro, Wasn't the your 6th choice and not the 3rd? Also do you have any programming or insights on early vs. late action, or even steady action throughout the cycle? In my tote watching, it's easier to read early action and react in time over late action. And early action on a horse that just doesn't figure(bad lines, not dropping in class, low pct. jockey, etc) seems to be a key for me. Of course, you said you don't look or use at pp's any more. Thanks for any insight.

Hi there Whosonfirst! Please note the following:

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but they generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined entry values add up to potentially decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

Posted at 13 mins to post

Originally Posted by Nitro

R#1 - 1650M C5 (8.25F)D…..3-1-7 W/ 4-8-9 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results

Originally Posted by Nitro

Results - 9-5-10-11
Dutch Win, with 83% margin (late sub w/#7 -)
Quinella – Out
3rd choice Winner got solid late action dropping 5 points @ 5 mins to post

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.9	7.6	11.0	BET	PRF	 
$6	$17	$24	 	 	 
$410	$140	$100	$650	$540	83%
$119	$120	$120	 	 	 

Have to watch that late tote activity especially on a horse which hasn't performed well lately. Funny how Jenny picked-up on #9 physicality and the odds started dropping.

As stated in my opening comment (above), I always reserve the personal right to alter the preference position of the early selections based on the final tote board analysis. My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post.

I realize that some players attempt to correlate handicapping factors with tote board activities. That may be productive at times with stateside pools, but you can’t compare the handle at ANY local track with the MILLIONS of dollars being bet on the individual races in Hong Kong. Many don’t realize that an entry dropping even a single point (8/1 to 7/1) in the Win, Place or Quinella pools involves the movement of an awful lot of money. In the race above the #9 entry was initially identified as having potential, and the final significant drop in ALL the pools identified this entry with solid win potential. It would be foolish to ignore these type of indicators.

Offering any direct insight as to how the tote analysis works is not my forte. I only use and recognize the results of what the program can provide. As far as I’m concerned anyone who tells me that they’re monitoring the flow of money visually and without the use of a computer is not really monitoring anything at all and just kidding themselves.

[AltonKelsey]

Nitro- "My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So by your own admission, you have PLENTY of time to actually post your final play LIVE, before the gates open, and not 15 minutes after the race with a miracle winner.



But you won't.



I note you do have the winner(s) in the mix a significant amount of the time, but you're picking a lot of numbers and cover the lower priced horses.


And if you're referring to me and monitoring visually, I have some very bad news for you.

I've been using the computer to track all the pools since Nixon was president.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Nitro- "My entire game and final selection process is based on the dynamics of money flow during the entire betting cycle up to 4 or 5 minutes to post."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So by your own admission, you have PLENTY of time to actually post your final play LIVE, before the gates open, and not 15 minutes after the race with a miracle winner.

But you won't.

I note you do have the winner(s) in the mix a significant amount of the time, but you're picking a lot of numbers and cover the lower priced horses.

And if you're referring to me and monitoring visually, I have some very bad news for you.

I've been using the computer to track all the pools since Nixon was president.

Yes, by golly you’re correct! My personal betting certainly takes priority over any picks that I might post here. That’s because there’s MONEY involved. As far as I’m concerned that’s far more important than any subsequent comments related to those picks. I’m not sure if anyone realizes it, but once the final selections are in place it does take some time to organize and structure the bets. BTW I’m a big fan of hedging my bets when both Dutching and using adequate permutations when playing Quinellas. I’m not interested in “Picking Winners”. I prefer making Winning (Profitable) plays.

I really find it kind of amusing though that you seem to have a problem with the single race of the morning where I made a result adjustment after my initial post. Something I might add that anyone truly analyzing the tote would have immediately recognized. (Apparently your so-called tote monitoring is a far cry from the program I use to analyze money flow.)

The reason I find it so amusing is because you seem to have an obvious yearning to downplay all of the other selections I posted for the remaining 9 races. You’ve intentionally and completely ignored the results of picks posted for all the other races: Races BTW where I had no reason to make any later adjustments. Apparently you’re either not able to recognize the accumulated profit potential from those selections or you’re just simply envious of the fact that the program I use is light years ahead of whatever you’ve been using since Nixon was in office. That news BTW is not "bad" its actually hilarious!

Not that its of any importance to me, but there might be some out there who would certainly be curious enough to hear exactly what type of computer you were using between 1969 and 1974. And better yet! Why not provide a description of where in the world you were able to access and download the live tote data into your so-called computer?

[AltonKelsey]

We go back a long way as early adopters.





PS Im sure your program is capable of spitting out the dutch in about 2 milliseconds.


Plenty of time to post the actual bet before the gates open.

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

This is the final race day for this meet. So, I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another VERY competitive card. In fact, it might be the categorized the most competitive of the entire meet.
On top of that the Jockey Title is coming down to the wire between Moreira and Purton. I’m sure their mounts will skew some of the betting as well.

It also looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with all 11 races on Turf:
(from top to bottom) -
(1)-Class1, (1)-Class2, (3)-Class3, (4)-Class4 & (2)Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true

I’ve already taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but they generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T…..2-13-14 W/ 12-10-9 ….….12:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Que]

Nitro... does your tote feed give you more than 3 digits on the projected Tierce payoffs?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

R#1 - 1800M C5 (9F)T…..2-13-14 W/ 12-10-9 ….….12:30 AM EST -

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 13-14-8-5
Dutch Win, but passed with only a 36% margin
Quinella – $29.70 – some decent value
Top 3 all showed decent action, especially in the Quinella pool

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Que

Nitro... does your tote feed give you more than 3 digits on the projected Tierce payoffs?

As far as I know the tote analysis I use only relies on the Win, Place and Quinella pools. I wish I could say I developed this analysis, but I can't take credit for the amazing work my mentor has accomplished.

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 4-5-11 W/ 1-2-3 …..…1:00 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Que]

The tote reader I cobbled together only reads the first three digits (max 999) on the Tierce, Trio, and First 4, but the Quartet goes to 5 digits.