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06-13-2018, 04:33 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 330
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Question for those with a vast database
Does anyone have any general ROI's for top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc to win and place? All I can seem to find is percentages all the way up to the 8th choice rather than an ROI or anything specific.
Seems like it would be an easy query with a DB.
Thanks!
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06-13-2018, 06:48 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Posts: 396
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It would be helpful if you defined "top choice". ML fav, final odds fav, someone's particular handicapping method, etc.
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06-14-2018, 12:43 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 330
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Top choice being the off favorite, second favorite, third favorite and so on. I thought that would be obvious..
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06-14-2018, 08:23 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WP1981
Does anyone have any general ROI's for top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc to win and place? All I can seem to find is percentages all the way up to the 8th choice rather than an ROI or anything specific.
Seems like it would be an easy query with a DB.
Thanks!
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How would you plan on using that info? Say for example, the #2 or #3 favorite at PT showed a 1.10 ROI. Or instead of the #1 favorite who historically showed a .89 to .90 ROI, it was now .97 ROI?
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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06-14-2018, 08:24 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Denver, CO.
Posts: 217
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I just looked at a quick 3000-race study I did for something else, but I can check for public choice in this study as well. This study contains only non-maiden dirt races, 5 to 10 furlongs. Because there are ties in the odds, it doesn’t always come out to 3000 per category. The return will be shown as a dollar net based on a $2.00 wager, not on $1.00. So a .90 return would be shown as $1.80.
1st. 3061 starters Win 37.6% $1.72, place 58.7% $1.77, show 72.5% $1.77
2nd. 3001 starters Win 21.4% $1.61, place 42.7% $1.63, show 59.5% $1.69
3rd. 2978 starters Win 16.1% $1.68, place 33.6% $1.62, show 51.9% $1.71
4th. 2986 starters Win 9.9% $1.47, place 25.3% $1.57, show 42.1% $1.64
5th. 2995 starters Win 6.6% $1.43, place 17.3% $1.43, show 31.8% $1.50
6th. 2724 starters Win 5.0% $1.50, place 12.2% $1.41, show 23.1% $1.38
7th. 2077 starters Win 2.8% $1.23, place 8.0% $1.32, show, 15.4% $1.25
8th. 1336 starters Win 2.5% $1.37, place 7.4% $1.53, show 12.5% $1.20
Small sample, but it looks like it gives a general idea.
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06-14-2018, 11:05 AM
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#6
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helles
I just looked at a quick 3000-race study I did for something else, but I can check for public choice in this study as well. This study contains only non-maiden dirt races, 5 to 10 furlongs.
Small sample, but it looks like it gives a general idea.
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I love how HSH guys think.
"Here's this study I whipped up in about 4 minutes without any need to understand coding."
Good job, Doug!
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06-14-2018, 03:10 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Denver, CO.
Posts: 217
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Dave, if I had to know how to write code, I'd be in real trouble. I'll leave that to you amigo! Can't wait to see what you've dreamed up for V.9.
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06-16-2018, 09:00 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I love how HSH guys think.
"Here's this study I whipped up in about 4 minutes without any need to understand coding."
Good job, Doug!
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So THAT'S how they think!
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06-21-2018, 12:14 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helles
I just looked at a quick 3000-race study I did for something else, but I can check for public choice in this study as well. This study contains only non-maiden dirt races, 5 to 10 furlongs. Because there are ties in the odds, it doesn’t always come out to 3000 per category. The return will be shown as a dollar net based on a $2.00 wager, not on $1.00. So a .90 return would be shown as $1.80.
1st. 3061 starters Win 37.6% $1.72, place 58.7% $1.77, show 72.5% $1.77
2nd. 3001 starters Win 21.4% $1.61, place 42.7% $1.63, show 59.5% $1.69
3rd. 2978 starters Win 16.1% $1.68, place 33.6% $1.62, show 51.9% $1.71
4th. 2986 starters Win 9.9% $1.47, place 25.3% $1.57, show 42.1% $1.64
5th. 2995 starters Win 6.6% $1.43, place 17.3% $1.43, show 31.8% $1.50
6th. 2724 starters Win 5.0% $1.50, place 12.2% $1.41, show 23.1% $1.38
7th. 2077 starters Win 2.8% $1.23, place 8.0% $1.32, show, 15.4% $1.25
8th. 1336 starters Win 2.5% $1.37, place 7.4% $1.53, show 12.5% $1.20
Small sample, but it looks like it gives a general idea.
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Thanks!
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06-21-2018, 12:21 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 330
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They are coming up with the win and place percentages for each choice from somewhere. Figured they would have some sort of roi for each of them as well from the same data.
I do not have one, otherwise I would not be curious. I find a lot of things like this interesting..such as post position stats. There is never an roi or anything posted. Seems like an easy process to average the payouts by starts from that pp and post the roi like they do with other aspects. If pp # doesnt matter enough to do that, then why post the stats in the first place.
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06-21-2018, 12:50 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WP1981
They are coming up with the win and place percentages for each choice from somewhere. Figured they would have some sort of roi for each of them as well from the same data.
I do not have one, otherwise I would not be curious. I find a lot of things like this interesting..such as post position stats. There is never an roi or anything posted. Seems like an easy process to average the payouts by starts from that pp and post the roi like they do with other aspects. If pp # doesnt matter enough to do that, then why post the stats in the first place.
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there are alot of stats that are published that, to some are questionable in importance. you can see the dichotomy of what is important in what americans see as important to solving the handicapping puzzle and what foreigner's deem important in their neck of the woods, even though the t-breds are running over the type of courses.
sometimes it is just probably a marketing ploy amongst data vendors to provide the data that they do.
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