Handicapping Saratoga 101, don’t bother

[ZippyChippy423]

Impossible to figure out the consistent inconsistencies. The only thing I know but it doesn’t help anything is that horses on the lead in turf races lose 100% of the time. Good luck figuring out who goes to the lead....good luck figuring anything out at Toga. Burned a lot of money so far trying to figure out a pattern but even the jockeys are taking turns and sharing the wins. I think I’m going to start buying a tip sheet. Seems a few have had a lot of success so far.

[Afleet]

play Prairie Meadows, they don't have turf

[thaskalos]

I once met a horseplayer who told me that he consistently made money betting at Saratoga. I pinched him to see if he was real...and he wasn't. I've been avoiding that track ever since.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Afleet

play Prairie Meadows, they don't have turf

It was a solid meet imo.
Some pretty nice horses there for a small track...field sizes not too bad and it was formful.One trainer pops up a little too often-but this happens almost everywhere now.Im sad its almost over.

[Redboard]

As far as the turf course being tough on speed, yes, that's been the case so far, but that's not always true. It can change quickly. The turf course can dry out fast after a few days of no rain and the track stopping irrigation. Pay attention to the fractions and most importantly , watch the races. The best way to be successful at the Spa is to attend every race in person and observe.

It's a tough puzzle!

[GMB@BP]

I have pretty much giving up there, I have to play some races for contests but given how the meet is constructed and other factors its too tough a puzzle, I readily admit its probably my lack of handicapping skill.

I will stick to more tried and true tracks, such as Prarie Meadows where I am having a great meet so far.

My best tracks by ROI

Emerald Downs
Prairie Meadows
Canterbury

Surprisingly doing well at GP, but I hit a 20/1 shot and a 12/1 in recent weeks.

[Fightingirish51195]

You couldn’t really gain the first day or 2 Of the meet.

Saratoga is notorious for being speed favoring at the beginning of the meet

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

It was a solid meet imo.
Some pretty nice horses there for a small track...field sizes not too bad and it was formful.One trainer pops up a little too often-but this happens almost everywhere now.Im sad its almost over.

Don't like playing where Broberg runs. Vasquez on pace to break his own meet record for wins. Its a nice place-been there many times

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I have pretty much giving up there, I have to play some races for contests but given how the meet is constructed and other factors its too tough a puzzle, I readily admit its probably my lack of handicapping skill.

I will stick to more tried and true tracks, such as Prarie Meadows where I am having a great meet so far.

My best tracks by ROI

Emerald Downs
Prairie Meadows
Canterbury

Surprisingly doing well at GP, but I hit a 20/1 shot and a 12/1 in recent weeks.

thats an interesting list; not sure if I ever placed a bet at EMD. The pick 5 carryover at PRM is something I would like to look at but every time I pull up the entries it appears there is no way there will be a single ticket-so I pass

[Tape Reader]

Absolutely love Saratoga.

Tote board player here. No handicapping.

Will not go if t-storms and heavy scratches.

One of my favorite plays:

<ML at 10 MTP and > ML at PT produces some great prices. I like to box 4 similar, in a TRI.

[Redboard]

There’s no bigger fool’s errand than analyzing a small sample but here goes.
41 races (not counting July 23 & 26 which were sloppy & off the turf)
15(36%) won by betting favorite ( see 1sts below)
8(20%) won by second betting favorite ( see 2nds below)
(therefore 56% won by either 1st or 2nd favs)
7(17%) won by the third betting favorite (see 3rds below)
(therefore 73% were won by either 1st , 2nd , or 3rd favs)


Saratoga winners
July 20: 4 of 7, 1st of 10, 1st of 8, 3rd of 8, 4 of 10, 5 of 10, 3rd of 10, 2nd of 10, 1st of 8, 6 of 11
July 21: 3rd of 6, 3rd of 10, 4 of 6, 1st of 8, 5 of 8, 1st of 10, 1st of 8, 1st of 11, 1st of 8, 1st of 7, 3rd of 11
July 22: 2nd of 7, 1st of 8, 1st of 7, 3rd of 8, 4 of 8, 2nd of 10, 5 of 9, 2nd of 10, 1st of 5, 5 of 10
July 23: Sloppy & Off.
July 25: 4 of 7, 1st of 5, 2nd of 10, 1st of 6, 7 of 10(MSW), 2nd of 6, 2nd of 10, 3rd of 6, 1st of 6, 2nd of 12
July 26: Sloppy & off.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Redboard

There’s no bigger fool’s errand than analyzing a small sample but here goes.
41 races (not counting July 23 & 26 which were sloppy & off the turf)
15(36%) won by betting favorite ( see 1sts below)
8(20%) won by second betting favorite ( see 2nds below)
(therefore 56% won by either 1st or 2nd favs)
7(17%) won by the third betting favorite (see 3rds below)
(therefore 73% were won by either 1st , 2nd , or 3rd favs)


Saratoga winners
July 20: 4 of 7, 1st of 10, 1st of 8, 3rd of 8, 4 of 10, 5 of 10, 3rd of 10, 2nd of 10, 1st of 8, 6 of 11
July 21: 3rd of 6, 3rd of 10, 4 of 6, 1st of 8, 5 of 8, 1st of 10, 1st of 8, 1st of 11, 1st of 8, 1st of 7, 3rd of 11
July 22: 2nd of 7, 1st of 8, 1st of 7, 3rd of 8, 4 of 8, 2nd of 10, 5 of 9, 2nd of 10, 1st of 5, 5 of 10
July 23: Sloppy & Off.
July 25: 4 of 7, 1st of 5, 2nd of 10, 1st of 6, 7 of 10(MSW), 2nd of 6, 2nd of 10, 3rd of 6, 1st of 6, 2nd of 12
July 26: Sloppy & off.

thanks for the numbers. I always thought Saratoga runs a slightly higher percentage of winning favorites than the average number-read that somewhere. There appear to be a few favorites tomorrow that are going to be difficult to beat, but I will try

[highnote]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I once met a horseplayer who told me that he consistently made money betting at Saratoga. I pinched him to see if he was real...and he wasn't. I've been avoiding that track ever since.

This is a long-winded story on how I learned to win at Saratoga...

I went to the Waterford Park (now Mountaineer) two Saturdays in a row when I was 18 years old. I lost money both days and swore I would never go back unless I learned how to win.

Fast forward about 10 or 15 years...

I discovered the Dr. Z system because I was a big fan of Ed Thorp. Thorp wrote the forward to "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack". So I started my betting career with the Dr. Z system back in the early 1990s. It worked well. I made enough to keep me interested. Dr. Z sold some racing products back then. He sold some Dick Mitchell software and books. I figured if Dr. Z recommended Dick Mitchell then Mitchell was somebody I should read.

Mitchell was an early seller of handicapping software. He also printed BASIC language programs in one of his books. And that's how I learned to write computer code for horse racing.

From Mitchell I learned about Howard Sartin's Total Pace Rating system. I wrote a little program that calculated the TPS numbers for each horse.

I used TPS and the Dr. Z system the first year I ever bet at Saratoga. I did everything by the book -- just like Sartin wrote. I kept detailed records of every bet. I wrote down why I lost. I did everything the books said to do because I didn't know how to do anything differently.

I made a profit at my first ever Saratoga meeting. It seemed so easy. I couldn't understand why everyone couldn't win at Saratoga. I didn't see what the big deal was.

Then I read Charles Carroll's book, "Handicapping Speed" and had dinner with him at the Handicapping Expo in Vegas. He said he created his own speed figures after reading Beyer's book and Beyer said every handicapper needs to find his own way.

So I figured I needed to "improve" upon the Sartin/Brohammer system and the other systems I learned about. I figured I could improve them and make even more money. It seemed so easy.



I learned the hard way. It is not easy. I don't think I have had a profitable Saratoga meeting since then.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

You couldn’t really gain the first day or 2 Of the meet.

Saratoga is notorious for being speed favoring at the beginning of the meet

When they switch back to Belmont it is difficult the first few days, too.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Absolutely love Saratoga.

Tote board player here. No handicapping.

Will not go if t-storms and heavy scratches.

One of my favorite plays:

<ML at 10 MTP and > ML at PT produces some great prices. I like to box 4 similar, in a TRI.

Interesting play. So a horse must be below ML odds at the 10MTP, and above ML at PT, correct? How do you differentiate the best plays using my example below:
Horse ---ML ------10MTP 0dds-------PT odds ---------Total Range
A .......5-1.........4-1 (-20%)..........7-1 (+40%).......3 (60%)
B .......8-1.........5-1 (-37%).........10-1 (+25%).......5 (62.5%)
C.......10-1........8-1 (-25%)..........15-1 (+50%).......7 (70%)
D....... 7/2.........5/2 (-28%)..........4-1 (+14%).......1.5 (42%)
E........20-1 .......8-1 (-60%)..........35-1 (+75%)........23 (115%)

I included the total range in betting in relation to the ML; not sure if that's important. Would the above be a 3 or 4 horse box in your Trifecta? If so, which ones, if you don't mind sharing?

I do something similar, in that I look at the pct. below ML at opening(25-30 MTP), and look for EM$ at >=50% below the ML. My best plays have always drifted >ML but occasionally staying below ML has won as well. In the case above, I've seen Horse E open at 8/5 or 2-1 at the open and gradually drift up to >20-1. With that big a drop, I take a hard look at PP's to see if his ML may be off, or there's a big class drop that somehow didn't get factored into his ML.
A bad running line in last several races will get my attention if the 50% threshold is reached. And before someone asks, I do look at all the pools to see if there's any follow through.