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07-28-2018, 11:50 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Absolutely love Saratoga.
Tote board player here. No handicapping.
Will not go if t-storms and heavy scratches.
One of my favorite plays:
<ML at 10 MTP and > ML at PT produces some great prices. I like to box 4 similar, in a TRI.
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Since I think everyone who has handicapped for more than a week notices early betdowns, I'm skeptical you're blindly cleaning up at Saratoga with a Handicapping 101 tactic.
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07-28-2018, 02:21 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Interesting play. So a horse must be below ML odds at the 10MTP, and above ML at PT, correct? How do you differentiate the best plays using my example below:
Horse ---ML ------10MTP 0dds-------PT odds ---------Total Range
A .......5-1.........4-1 (-20%)..........7-1 (+40%).......3 (60%)
B .......8-1.........5-1 (-37%).........10-1 (+25%).......5 (62.5%)
C.......10-1........8-1 (-25%)..........15-1 (+50%).......7 (70%)
D....... 7/2.........5/2 (-28%)..........4-1 (+14%).......1.5 (42%)
E........20-1 .......8-1 (-60%)..........35-1 (+75%)........23 (115%)
I included the total range in betting in relation to the ML; not sure if that's important. Would the above be a 3 or 4 horse box in your Trifecta? If so, which ones, if you don't mind sharing?
I do something similar, in that I look at the pct. below ML at opening(25-30 MTP), and look for EM$ at >=50% below the ML. My best plays have always drifted >ML but occasionally staying below ML has won as well. In the case above, I've seen Horse E open at 8/5 or 2-1 at the open and gradually drift up to >20-1. With that big a drop, I take a hard look at PP's to see if his ML may be off, or there's a big class drop that somehow didn't get factored into his ML.
A bad running line in last several races will get my attention if the 50% threshold is reached. And before someone asks, I do look at all the pools to see if there's any follow through.
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I would go with B, C and E because of the higher odds. It’s a toss-up between the other two just to fill a four horse box.
Seldom do I get five contenders unless there are a lot of scratches which kills the system. Like I said I try to avoid those days.
I agree best plays are those drifting >ML and I will also include one that may be just below ML to fill out a ticket.
I usually toss a 50-1 ML but do worry about it during the race.
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07-28-2018, 05:45 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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How do you come up with the 5 in the Bowling Green?
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07-28-2018, 06:07 PM
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#19
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
How do you come up with the 5 in the Bowling Green?
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No speed in the race. Glorious empire was the only starter with a Early Timeform Pace figure (107) larger than his late one(83).
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07-28-2018, 06:08 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
No speed in the race. Glorious empire was the only starter with a Early Timeform Pace figure (107) larger than his late one(83).
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sure, yea, but the horse kinda sucks. crappy horses with front end speed dont steal turf races, and there was other speed in the race (hi happy, manitoulin).
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07-28-2018, 06:45 PM
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#21
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
sure, yea, but the horse kinda sucks. crappy horses with front end speed dont steal turf races, and there was other speed in the race (hi happy, manitoulin).
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I agree with you, especially on soft turf. Look at Glorious Empire's last attempt at the SPA 9/4/17 on yielding, dead last. The only hint that I can see is the different jockey.
I'll give you Hi Happy (88->92) who really came up small. He just faded for no reason and finished up the track. But not Manitoulin (59->108).
Not that I cashed on this race. I had Bigger Picture.
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07-28-2018, 07:01 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
I agree with you, especially on soft turf. Look at Glorious Empire's last attempt at the SPA 9/4/17 on yielding, dead last. The only hint that I can see is the different jockey.
I'll give you Hi Happy (88->92) who really came up small. He just faded for no reason and finished up the track. But not Manitoulin (59->108).
Not that I cashed on this race. I had Bigger Picture.
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It just goes with the idea of this thread, at least for me, that other than Chad Brown I feel like turf racing especially is throwing darts at Sar.
Its cool I just needed the 10 to finish first or second in the last, he finished third, its only money I keep telling myself.
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