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Old 01-22-2018, 11:20 AM   #31
AndyC
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I hope you have a lot of equity built up, the Eagles plus 5.5 is a steal. Borrow as much as you can from your friends and neighbors. Damn, rob a bank if you can get away with it. All in!
It is a steal, for the bookmakers taking action on the Eagles! Many people are falling into the trap of betting off of one good game for Foles. Kind of like a horse running 15 points better than their lifetime best speed figure. Foles has every reason to regress and little to suggest that he is up to the task of providing the necessary leadership at QB. Philadelphia has a very good team. Solid lines both offensively and defensively. I expect a low scoring game with NE winning in a score of about 24-13. Take NE and the under. You're welcome.
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Old 01-22-2018, 11:41 AM   #32
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Red face opinions... "everybody has one"

Jags-Pats: Jacksonville came out swinging and scored an early knockdown. They caught the champs dry and flat-footed. They weren't prepared to finish the fight, and the Patriots were very fortunate to win out with class and experience.


Eagles-Pats: It's a mistake to take the AFC and NFC championship rounds at face value. Eagles are not as good as they looked, Pats are not as bad as they look. Foles is the real deal, and I'm not sure that he isn't better than Wentz. I'm picking the Patriots in a snooze-fest, but I wouldn't be surprised if either team opened up early and dominated. I don't expect a close game in this Super Bowl.


Gronk: So what's the deal? Was he actually so severely concussed that he couldn't continue to play in the 2nd Half of the biggest game to date, or was it 'protocol'? If it's the latter, it is complete bullshit. Every other snap a lineman smacks his head (albeit repeatedly @ 5mph instead of once at 20). Every 5 carries a running back takes a blow to the head. Every 15 plays or so a peripheral player smacks their head into the turf while attempting to make a play... If the rules were universally enforced, we'd need 300 man rosters. If the Gronk concussion was truly unusually severe, there's NO WAY he should be allowed to play in 2 weeks!! However, something tells me he will be 'cleared'...
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Old 01-22-2018, 11:59 AM   #33
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It is a steal, for the bookmakers taking action on the Eagles! Many people are falling into the trap of betting off of one good game for Foles. Kind of like a horse running 15 points better than their lifetime best speed figure. Foles has every reason to regress and little to suggest that he is up to the task of providing the necessary leadership at QB. Philadelphia has a very good team. Solid lines both offensively and defensively. I expect a low scoring game with NE winning in a score of about 24-13. Take NE and the under. You're welcome.
Its the opposite, they know every homer, chowder head and fan that can't gauge a football team will bet on Tom Brady. If you gotta squeak by Jacksonville at home and can barely stop Bortles. This team is going to be a handful for you. If Jacksonville can put you on the ropes, if Philly plays their "A" game....this will be a knock out. I already bet while i could, before the whales hammered the spread and lowered it to 5.5 almost Immediatly. They are playing to the public on Super Bowl day. Every fool that hardly bets will make a rare bet that day. It doesn't work every year but they are going to take a shit load on the Patriots in hopes they lose. But the big and smart money went in on that 7 in a flash. Regular folk don't bet right after the bell.

There's no way on Gods green earth I would lay 7 to this team after watching the season and these playoff games. NE will need their luck to even be in this one. They have not faced a team like this yet. The AFC was loaded with pretenders and bad teams. Some of them even made the playoffs. If it weren't the Patriots i would for see a blow out in this game. If they get behind like last year.......there is no coming back against this defense. Sure they can win if Philly screws up, but 7 points on an even playing field ain't going to happen. The people that got in at +7 are feeling pretty good right now. I know i am. What games do people watch?

It reminds me of the Denver vs Seattle game....."old Peyton Manning, he can't lose." He got his head handed to him and the bookies made about 20 million in Vegas. That's the goal here.

Last edited by burnsy; 01-22-2018 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:01 PM   #34
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The Pats have two things no one else has. Best second half adjustments. Officiating.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:23 PM   #35
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This is how they pull it off! Short memories. The spread started higher and waned.


http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/201...nevada-casinos


The exact opposite of what Andy C is preaching! Thanks for nothing!

Last edited by burnsy; 01-22-2018 at 12:27 PM.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:25 PM   #36
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Its the opposite, they know every homer, chowder head and fan that can't gauge a football team will bet on Tom Brady. If you gotta squeak by Jacksonville at home and can barely stop Bortles. This team is going to be a handful for you. If Jacksonville can put you on the ropes, if Philly plays their "A" game....this will be a knock out. I already bet while i could, before the whales hammered the spread and lowered it to 5.5 almost Immediatly. They are playing to the public on Super Bowl day. Every fool that hardly bets will make a rare bet that day. It doesn't work every year but they are going to take a shit load on the Patriots in hopes they lose. But the big and smart money went in on that 7 in a flash. Regular folk don't bet right after the bell.

There's no way on Gods green earth I would lay 7 to this team after watching the season and these playoff games. NE will need their luck to even be in this one. They have not faced a team like this yet. The AFC was loaded with pretenders and bad teams. Some of them even made the playoffs. If it weren't the Patriots i would for see a blow out in this game. If they get behind like last year.......there is no coming back against this defense. Sure they can win if Philly screws up, but 7 points on an even playing field ain't going to happen. The people that got in at +7 are feeling pretty good right now. I know i am. What games do people watch?

It reminds me of the Denver vs Seattle game....."old Peyton Manning, he can't lose." He got his head handed to him and the bookies made about 20 million in Vegas. That's the goal here.
This is a good post.

I think New England has big problems in their secondary. They made Bortles look like the second coming of Joe Montana, and they compounded the problem with bad tackling.

We see so many of these Patriot comebacks, but many times, EVERYTHING has to break just right. They have to convert a 3rd and 18, they have to get a 45 yard PI penalty, they see two key Jax defenders go down with injuries late in the game, and then Amendola does a great tightrope act to come down with the ball in the end zone. I won't rehash everything from last year's Super Bowl; we already know that everything broke perfectly for them.

Philly is the better balanced team.

Last edited by Valuist; 01-22-2018 at 12:29 PM.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:43 PM   #37
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This is a good post.

I think New England has big problems in their secondary. They made Bortles look like the second coming of Joe Montana, and they compounded the problem with bad tackling.

We see so many of these Patriot comebacks, but many times, EVERYTHING has to break just right. They have to convert a 3rd and 18, they have to get a 45 yard PI penalty, they see two key Jax defenders go down with injuries late in the game, and then Amendola does a great tightrope act to come down with the ball in the end zone. I won't rehash everything from last year's Super Bowl; we already know that everything broke perfectly for them.

Philly is the better balanced team.

I agree, Patriots do get the best of outcomes but Philly is just better. This notion that Foles isn't good.........he's just gotten better in the playoffs. He pretty much smoked Atlanta too with first downs....didn't people watch that game? The guy has had two 100+ QBR's in a row and led the league with a 119.2 in 2013. He's no bum on a good team. He had a bad season on the Rams when they sucked but he's a damn better QB than people think.....heads and tails better than Bortles has ever proven. People listen to these bafoons on TV. How many bets does Terry Bradshaw win? He's on there saying he can't believe he played that good.....lol Look at his stats.....

http://www.nfl.com/player/nickfoles/2532842/careerstats

Yeah, its awful.....
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:10 PM   #38
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:13 PM   #39
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Didn't that also apply to Flacco?

Anyway, I'm feeling the Eagles in an upset.
Ditto Trent Dilfer, and even Jeff Hostetler.
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:16 PM   #40
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All the Pats super bowls are close games. Last year they won by 6 but in OT. All the other games were 3-4 pts either way. They play these games close. Thats why to me anyway the points are attractive. Eagles and the points looks like a good bet.
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:41 PM   #41
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Philly 27-24 on a late field goal.
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Old 01-22-2018, 01:56 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by burnsy View Post
Its the opposite, they know every homer, chowder head and fan that can't gauge a football team will bet on Tom Brady. If you gotta squeak by Jacksonville at home and can barely stop Bortles. This team is going to be a handful for you. If Jacksonville can put you on the ropes, if Philly plays their "A" game....this will be a knock out. I already bet while i could, before the whales hammered the spread and lowered it to 5.5 almost Immediatly. They are playing to the public on Super Bowl day. Every fool that hardly bets will make a rare bet that day. It doesn't work every year but they are going to take a shit load on the Patriots in hopes they lose. But the big and smart money went in on that 7 in a flash. Regular folk don't bet right after the bell.

There's no way on Gods green earth I would lay 7 to this team after watching the season and these playoff games. NE will need their luck to even be in this one. They have not faced a team like this yet. The AFC was loaded with pretenders and bad teams. Some of them even made the playoffs. If it weren't the Patriots i would for see a blow out in this game. If they get behind like last year.......there is no coming back against this defense. Sure they can win if Philly screws up, but 7 points on an even playing field ain't going to happen. The people that got in at +7 are feeling pretty good right now. I know i am. What games do people watch?

It reminds me of the Denver vs Seattle game....."old Peyton Manning, he can't lose." He got his head handed to him and the bookies made about 20 million in Vegas. That's the goal here.
First of all, where could you get the game at 7? Pinnacle had it at 7 for exactly 2 minutes before changing it. Nobody else in Vegas or offshore has had it at 7. I wouldn't lay 7 either.

This isn't just about Brady. I am sure Tom can handle the moment and not be a bundle of nerves in 2 weeks. Comparing Manning to him is ridiculous. It's about Foles. I would play for a huge bounce.
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Old 01-22-2018, 02:01 PM   #43
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the Eagles got big physical guys, but hardly any speed at all. everyone betting on the Eagles right now, gonna wait to see what shakes after being completely wrong on the last one.

my guess is that the points won't make a difference one way or the other. i thought the game should have come out with a higher line, but since the public is all over the Eagles so far, it looks like they know what they were doing

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Old 01-22-2018, 02:08 PM   #44
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They're going the OC route, hiring Shurmur
Wow, it never occurred to me we'd hire the Vikings OFFENSIVE coordinator.
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Old 01-22-2018, 02:12 PM   #45
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This is a good post.

I think New England has big problems in their secondary. They made Bortles look like the second coming of Joe Montana, and they compounded the problem with bad tackling.

We see so many of these Patriot comebacks, but many times, EVERYTHING has to break just right. They have to convert a 3rd and 18, they have to get a 45 yard PI penalty, they see two key Jax defenders go down with injuries late in the game, and then Amendola does a great tightrope act to come down with the ball in the end zone. I won't rehash everything from last year's Super Bowl; we already know that everything broke perfectly for them.

Philly is the better balanced team.
NE gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points.

Jacksonville was initially tough for NE because they have such a great pass defense. NE adjusted and moved the ball quite well in the second half. Philly's defensive strength is their rush defense. They are not nearly as good as Jacksonville with regard to pass defense. They also aren't as stingy about giving up points as Jacksonville.
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