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10-26-2016, 07:42 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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11 Day HK Dutching Summary
Update:
The chart below covers the last 11 race days in HK and ALL 99 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:
1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,194 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 99 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................ In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!
Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.
.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>
Code:
TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%
ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%
HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%
ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%
HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%
ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%
HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%
ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%
HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)
ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%
HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%
The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/26/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134202
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10-30-2016, 03:58 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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12 Day HK Dutching Summary
Update:
The chart below covers the last 12 race days in HK and ALL 109 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:
1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,757 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 109 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................ In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!
All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.
.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>
Code:
TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%
ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%
HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%
ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%
HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%
ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%
HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%
ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%
HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)
ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%
HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%
HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/30/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&page=1&pp=15
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&page=2&pp=15
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10-31-2016, 09:25 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nitro
Update:
The chart below covers the last 12 race days in HK and ALL 109 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:
1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,757 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 109 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................ In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!
All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.
.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>
Code:
TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%
ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%
HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%
ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%
HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%
ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%
HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%
ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%
HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)
ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%
HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%
HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/30/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&page=1&pp=15
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&page=2&pp=15
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Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).
Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.
With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.
When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of
100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analyis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.
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10-31-2016, 01:11 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).
Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.
With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.
When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of
100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analyis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).
Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.
With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.
When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of
100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analysis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.
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Hey Whosonfirst, I’ve never looked at the O.A. averages like that or tried to evaluate the Dutching results that way. I generally take each race as it comes and by simply inserting the odds of the 3 selected entries into my Dutching calculator, I’m able to immediately determine if a race is even playable. As I’ve mentioned before because I’m hitting at a rate of 50%, I want to make sure that the combined value of the 3 selections provide a minimum Profit Margin higher than 50%. Of course, the higher this Profit Margin turns out to be - the better.
Such as these 2 examples: (Note the odds and difference in the PRF% - Profit Margins)
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 4.0 5.0 BET PRF
$7 $10 $12
$12 $8 $7 $27 $15 53%
$42 $42 $42
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LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 6.0 8.0 BET PRF
$10 $14 $18
$18 $13 $10 $41 $49 120%
$90 $90 $90
Now if you can improve your O.A. hit frequency to say 65%, than you can also reduce the acceptable Profit Margin to 35% or more.
I believe that because the racing in the States being what it is with the smaller fields, that using a consistent 2-entry Dutch method is probably a better approach.
Aside from the "static" tote analysis working so well at pointing out the real contenders, I believe that the reason the entire program produces such a nice profit is only because of the incredible odds value in each of the races offered at Hong Kong. Of course, that also has to do with the HKJC providing fields of 10, 12, and 14 runners in all their races.
If you’re interested testing your own Dutching approach feel free to using this 2 or 3 entry Dutch calculator. Just plug in the odds and it does everything else.
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11-02-2016, 10:36 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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13 Day HK Dutching Summary
UPDATE:
The chart below covers the last 13 race days in HK and ALL 117 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:
1) Overall hit frequency of 49 % w/Early picks ( 67 % w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $8,267 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,692 and Profit margin of 33%. ( ROI 3.30)
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 49% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 49% (only 1 of 117 so far).
5) Considering the 49% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................ In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!
All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.
.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->
Code:
TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%
ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%
HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%
ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%
HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%
ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%
HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%
ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%
HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%
ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%
HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%
HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%
Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 11/2/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134347
Last edited by Nitro; 11-02-2016 at 10:37 PM.
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11-02-2016, 11:03 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
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Ebettorsedge
Are you "Slick" from failed website ebettorsedge?Just curious.
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11-02-2016, 11:22 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AxleLode
Are you "Slick" from failed website ebettorsedge?Just curious.
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No I’m not, but it’s funny you should mention that because he’s the same guy who became my tote board mentor through his original site called Tote-Works. I’m pretty sure that at the time he was also involved with ebttorsedge site.
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11-02-2016, 11:38 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
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Thanks for your reply because your bet structure was very similar and your explanations spot on to a man I used to compete with.
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11-06-2016, 04:30 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Day 14 - Dutch Betting Summary
UPDATE:
The chart below covers the last 14 race days in HK and ALL 128 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:
1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (67% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $8,886 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,999 and O.A. Profit margin of 34%. (3.4 ROI)
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 128 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................ In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!
These results are based on the Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.
.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->
Code:
TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%
ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%
HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%
ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%
HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%
ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%
HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%
ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%
HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%
ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%
HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%
HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%
ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%
Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin Sun 11/6/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134448
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11-07-2016, 12:23 AM
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#40
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Nitro, because I have spent more years than I want to admit analyzing the tote board, I truly admire your work.
the results are staggering
8886 bets over 128 races, an average of 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.
From what I can tell these results are based on win betting, using the prerace selections and final post time odds from which you derive your bet size.
Of course I would like to see your results for the bet sizes prior to the start of the race. I could understand those results might even be better than the final odds calculations.
All of this aside, I have a hard time accepting there is so much profit to be made in the win pool, a little yes, but these are mind blowing.
what type of work do you do? 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-07-2016, 12:46 AM
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#41
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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$8886 in bets over 128 races, an average of $ 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.p
correction
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-07-2016, 12:07 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by formula_2002
Nitro, because I have spent more years than I want to admit analyzing the tote board, I truly admire your work.
the results are staggering
8886 bets over 128 races, an average of 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.
From what I can tell these results are based on win betting, using the prerace selections and final post time odds from which you derive your bet size.
Of course I would like to see your results for the bet sizes prior to the start of the race. I could understand those results might even be better than the final odds calculations.
All of this aside, I have a hard time accepting there is so much profit to be made in the win pool, a little yes, but these are mind blowing.
what type of work do you do? |
Hey Formula, I too have been using the tote analysis for some time now, but I can’t the credit for its origination or development. I will take some acknowledgement for using it to produce some very nice returns particularly with the racing in Hong Kong. As I mentioned, for the preliminary HK selections we’re using what’s called a “static tote analysis” because there’s no money being bet at the time. It’s based on all the tote information available on the HKJC Web site. Later of course as the betting cycles commence the actual pools are analyzed in real time. The Live tote action has been much more productive than the static version in terms of both the hit frequency and resulting Net profit.
Believe it or not, even though there are some fluctuations in the odds from when I usually place my bets (between 3 to 5 mins to post) and the final odds, it actually hasn’t made that much of a difference in terms of the O.A. returns. There’s just so much value to be had with the racing in HK.
Regarding the posted results of the Early selections you’re correct. Over the last 14 days there have been a 128 races posted using a 3-entry Dutch Win method at a cost of $8,886. The Net Profit has been $2999 or a margin of 34%.
BTW I’ve always used the same formula that’s used in business to determine the ROI
ROI = [(Payback - Investment)/Investment]*100
ROI = [(11,885 - 8886) / 8886]*100 = 33.75
As a semi-retired business consultant, right now the only work (or fun) I really do now is play this game for profit. 
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11-07-2016, 02:37 PM
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#43
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Nitro, would you be willing to say that the favorite in most races is the quintessential insiders bet? My issue here is that it is difficult to say definitively where the presumed inside money is landing....one could make the argument that since a horse is favored, ipso facto, inside money MUST be on that one, at least in some amounts anyway....if fact, the inside money may actually be on many horses all at the same time according to the dictates of some real time arbitrage method of price-risk calculation/ wagering output method...even you are using a multiple choice wagering strategy...so it is not so much that the insiders are "in the know" about any given horse physical abilities in any given race so much as it is that their "inside knowledge" is about price/ risk calculations that shift throughout the wagering cycle and involves as many as 5 or 6 selections....
Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 11-07-2016 at 02:39 PM.
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11-07-2016, 05:41 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Nitro, would you be willing to say that the favorite in most races is the quintessential insiders bet? My issue here is that it is difficult to say definitively where the presumed inside money is landing....one could make the argument that since a horse is favored, ipso facto, inside money MUST be on that one, at least in some amounts anyway....if fact, the inside money may actually be on many horses all at the same time according to the dictates of some real time arbitrage method of price-risk calculation/ wagering output method...even you are using a multiple choice wagering strategy...so it is not so much that the insiders are "in the know" about any given horse physical abilities in any given race so much as it is that their "inside knowledge" is about price/ risk calculations that shift throughout the wagering cycle and involves as many as 5 or 6 selections....
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Vigors you’ve raised some interesting questions.
I would have to say that in general the favorite is not necessarily an insider’s bet. I’d like to think that the pro is hitting at a better than the 33% rate. While HK is another story altogether, you can see my hit frequency with Early selections is already beyond that and using the Live selections are double that (33% rate).
You should understand something about what I use. I really don’t care where the money is coming from, only where and its registering in the betting pools at specific betting intervals. Those that use a tote analysis will more than likely tell you that it already a foregone conclusion that it’s spelling out intentions. These intentions are exemplified by the beliefs that not only is an entry in excellent shape (physically and mentally), but that they’re capable of beating their competition. Of course they're also interested in getting a nice share of that pool money.
The fact is we’re using this tool as a method of determining which of the entries might actually be trying to win the race (Of course there’s always more than one entry). Which brings me once again to the realities of this game. Trainers enter their stock into various races for a variety of reasons, and it’s not always with intentions of winning. Taking ALL Stakes races out of the equation (where the purses are very enticing), the remaining 95% of all the races offer a variety of options and incentives for each stable to consider. Sometimes I think too much emphasis is placed on the horses themselves rather than on those who control their every move (both on and off the track).
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11-07-2016, 06:28 PM
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#45
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Plus, there is the idea between bettors like yourself (who are seeking to interpret the motives of a presumed inside within the wheels of the tote) and the insiders themselves, that is, how much of any given betting shift is a product of the insiders' action, versus the "noise" of extra dollars added on to that shift once a selection is identified as being "live"...?
Is there a danger that a normal shift in wagering might be read as "insider action" that begins a snowballing effect by persons such as yourself, that leads to more of the same false reading of the horses' real chances? This is probably why you wait until 4 min to post to bet....to reduce that effect.
But I'm thinking that in large enough pools, these shifts are tough to gauge and that is where the exacta will-pays come in....because insiders seek to maximize their gains in these pools, and for "action eyes" like yourself, these will-pays are really the only place where shifts can be reasonably distinguished...thus you and Formula2000 are students of the exacta pool will-pays primarily....and there is no way to see the entirety of these exacta pools matrix, and evaluate them at the same time, without a computer program that is able to do this in real time....this is well beyond the resources of the average bettor...so while you may be right about the insider method, very few of us on the outside are in a position to utilized it and benefit from it, ourselves....
Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 11-07-2016 at 06:33 PM.
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