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Old 10-15-2016, 06:15 PM   #16
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
You and I ride each other pretty hard, but it's not because I don't appreciate the way you play your game. I fully understand the method of your madness, so, having said that, I hope you'll consider this a serious question.

Being that the general premise of your method is that it gives you a view into the insider's heads, how does including pools filled with North American bets on Hong Kong races give you that?

Not being a doubter, just wondering.
Hey it’s all in good fun and good spirit. After all when it comes right down to it, it’s only a game.

My previous comment may have been misleading.
I should have said that only Exacta pools are available in the States and Quinella pools in HK. There is no Exacta betting in HK. The really nice thing about playing HK here in the States is that all of the available betting pools (Win, Place 2nd, Place 3rd, Quinella, and Triple) are co-mingled. However, the vast majority of money being bet is HK money!

That’s one of the reasons why I generally shy away from playing races in Australia and Japan. The only betting pools showing the actual money available to us are those generated by players in the States. It’s doubtful that those pools would offer any Insider tendencies.
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Old 10-15-2016, 07:33 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’m not sure I understand the significance of “booking percentage”. When Dutching the only thing I believe is important is the potential Profit % when the odds of all 3 selections are combined. As long as that figure is higher then the hit frequency % a profit is an absolute result.
These are first {3) races from the last day at HK:

HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/12
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133952

R#1 - 1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3.............. Results: 1 -6-5-12 (Top choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.2/1 ) – 7 ( 14/1 ) - $100.00 – $100.00
#1 – 1/2.3+1 = 0.30……..#6 – 1/7.2+1 = 0.12………..#7 – 1/14+1 = 0.07

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2................... Results: 5 -6-4-7 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 5 ( 2.9/1 ) - $96.00 – $196.00
#3 – 1/10+1= 0.09…….#1 = 1/7.2+1 = 0.12……….#5 – 1/2.9+1 = 0.29

R#3 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-8....... Results: 2-5-7-6 (Top choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) –5 ( 5.6/1 ) –4 ( 4.9/1 ) - $64.00 – $260.00
#2 – 1/2.8+1 = 0.26……#5 – 1/5.6+1 = 0.18……..#4 – 1/4.9+1 = 0.17

Maybe you could explain why you feel these “booking % “ numbers are important?
As far as I’m concerned I’m up $260 after 3 races.

after working it out, I don't see any difference if Dutch bet size is based on different common book sizes.
I just always worth to a 100% book wherever possible
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx dutch Book1.xlsx (15.2 KB, 55 views)
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Old 10-15-2016, 10:29 PM   #18
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I’ll be posting the early selections for another round of racing at Sha Tin this morning (Sun 10/16) on the following thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134034
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Old 10-16-2016, 03:51 AM   #19
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nice winners again this morning including the $25 horse in the 7th. i can see why you stay up for Hong Kong every time they run. when they go dark it must give you anxiety attacks waiting out the hiatus.
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:28 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
nice winners again this morning including the $25 horse in the 7th. i can see why you stay up for Hong Kong every time they run. when they go dark it must give you anxiety attacks waiting out the hiatus.
I don’t mind staying up when I can reap the rewards of some great racing and the incredible potential value that's obviously offered in every race.

Actually I find the break between the meets to be very refreshing. But I really do look forward to when the racing starts each time. To be honest, when I started playing HK it felt like my whole game became rejuvenated. As far as I’m concerned there's nothing in the States even comes close on any level.
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:53 AM   #21
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With those kinds of results, I'd reset my sleep patterns to keep my mind sharper.
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Old 10-16-2016, 02:39 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
As I mentioned, if you visit some of the more recent of the HK threads from the links I posted above, you’ll find the Dutching calculator I use. Once you enter the odds of the 3 selections (in the correct order), the calculator provides the basic individual bets necessary and the total bet involved. Of course the basic bet can be divided (to reduce the O.A. bet) or multiplied (to increase the O.A. bet).
Thank you. I've been following your threads, but I missed the excel file at the bottom.
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Old 10-16-2016, 09:48 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
With those kinds of results, I'd reset my sleep patterns to keep my mind sharper.
I've got a regular routine that seems to work pretty good. Not having to post Live selections allows me to have more time for making bets properly and avoiding costly errors. I really think the adrenaline keeps me going in the wee hours of the morning.
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Old 10-16-2016, 10:25 PM   #24
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Thumbs up 8-Day Dutch Betting Summary

Update:

The chart below covers the last 8 race days in HK and 74 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 57 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $5,662 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,386 and Profit margin of 42%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 57% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 74 so far).
5) Considering the 57% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

Code:
TRK     DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%	
HP	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/12	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T 	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952	636 	67% 
Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/16 -:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=134034&page=2
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Old 10-17-2016, 08:51 AM   #25
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Nitro, Maybe you answered this before. Do you ever pass betting your top three if odds on your top three are low and 1st three favorites? I know the top three fav's historically used to win 67% of all races. Some on here have studied that and said recently it might approach 70% at many tracks. I've read that Saratoga it's lower. For example:
Pick 1 : 6/5 : 45.5% - $42 bet- $92.4 return if wins
Pick 2: 8/5 : 38.5% - $35 bet- $91.0 return if wins
Pick 3: 3/1 : 25% - $23 bet- $92.0 return if wins
Total top three = 109% - $100 total bets. It appears when the top three bets are dutched and total combined odds pct. is over 100%, it's impossible to make this profitable. What am I doing wrong?

Alt. scenario:
Pick 1: 8/5 : 38.5% - $47 bet - $122.00 return if wins
Pick 2: 5/2 : 28.6% - $35 bet - $122.50 return if wins
Pick 3: 6/1 : 14.1% - $17 bet - $119.00 return if wins
Tot. top 3 : 81.2% - $99 total bet-$121.00 average return if wins. With three dutching bets in this range, you would have to win 82% of your bets to break even.
Can you tell what your total threshold for dutching the top 3 is cut off?
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Old 10-17-2016, 01:33 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Nitro, Maybe you answered this before. Do you ever pass betting your top three if odds on your top three are low and 1st three favorites? I know the top three fav's historically used to win 67% of all races. Some on here have studied that and said recently it might approach 70% at many tracks. I've read that Saratoga it's lower. For example:
Pick 1 : 6/5 : 45.5% - $42 bet- $92.4 return if wins
Pick 2: 8/5 : 38.5% - $35 bet- $91.0 return if wins
Pick 3: 3/1 : 25% - $23 bet- $92.0 return if wins
Total top three = 109% - $100 total bets. It appears when the top three bets are dutched and total combined odds pct. is over 100%, it's impossible to make this profitable. What am I doing wrong?

Alt. scenario:
Pick 1: 8/5 : 38.5% - $47 bet - $122.00 return if wins
Pick 2: 5/2 : 28.6% - $35 bet - $122.50 return if wins
Pick 3: 6/1 : 14.1% - $17 bet - $119.00 return if wins
Tot. top 3 : 81.2% - $99 total bet-$121.00 average return if wins. With three dutching bets in this range, you would have to win 82% of your bets to break even.
Can you tell what your total threshold for dutching the top 3 is cut off?
I will absolutely pass any race where the combination of odds on say 3 selections produce a very low Profit Margin %. The average 67% hit frequency for the top 3 betting selections is pretty much agreed on. However, this also refers to those 3 entries with the lowest odds at post time. We generally see an average of only 7 or 8 entries in a race. So it’s not uncommon to see odds like 8/5, 5/2, 4/1 (or lower)
Using those 3 as an example this is what the Dutch chart looks like:
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.6	2.5	4.0	BET	PRF	
$5	$7	$10			
$10	$7	$5	$23	$3	15%
$26	$26	$26
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 15%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 85% in order to remain profitable!

Using the suggested Alternate scenario:
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT     TOT 	PRF %
1.6	2.5	6.0	BET	PRF		
$5	$7	$14			
$14	$10	$5	$30	$7	23%
$36	$36	$36
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 23%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 77% in order to remain profitable!

As I mentioned (above) because my hit frequency right now at HK is 57% I would not play any races that had a known Profit Margin of 50% or less. So far out of the 74 races posted there has been only 1 race that came in with a 45% Profit Margin.
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Old 10-19-2016, 06:58 PM   #27
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9-Day Dutch Betting Summary

Update:

The chart below covers the last 9 race days in HK and 82 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,105 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,354 and Profit margin of 39%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>
Code:
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T 	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443	(32)	(7%)
Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/19/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134076

Last edited by Nitro; 10-19-2016 at 06:59 PM.
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Old 10-24-2016, 09:06 PM   #28
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10 Day HK Dutching Summary

Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->
Code:
 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43 	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310 	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57 	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872 	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49 	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705 	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84 	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933 	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52 	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585 	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64 	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659 	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98 	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646 	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60 	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952 	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51 	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443 	(32)	(-7%)
																																					
ST	10/23	1200 D	51 	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)				704 	17 	2%
The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=134156&page=1
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Old 10-24-2016, 09:21 PM   #29
lamboguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->
Code:
 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43 	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310 	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57 	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872 	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49 	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705 	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84 	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933 	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52 	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585 	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64 	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659 	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98 	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646 	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60 	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952 	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51 	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443 	(32)	(-7%)
																																					
ST	10/23	1200 D	51 	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)				704 	17 	2%
The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=134156&page=1
DUTCH, DOUBLE DUTCH OR NO DOUCH, that is a very strong record using 3 horses in 14 horse fields in a place like Hong Kong. my guess is that those races have approximately 7 1/2 win factors on average every race.

i gave the racing there a decent effort 2 years ago and found my main problem was having no clue where the horses were going to be positioned during the race. unlike north american races, cover is huge there. a very small percentage of the races were being won on the pace from what i saw.
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Old 10-25-2016, 04:01 PM   #30
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
DUTCH, DOUBLE DUTCH OR NO DUTCH, that is a very strong record using 3 horses in 14 horse fields in a place like Hong Kong. my guess is that those races have approximately 7 1/2 win factors on average every race.

i gave the racing there a decent effort 2 years ago and found my main problem was having no clue where the horses were going to be positioned during the race. unlike north american races, cover is huge there. a very small percentage of the races were being won on the pace from what i saw.
Yes, Dutching with the 3 early picks has been very productive. However, the Dutching I do based on the Live tote is even better in terms of the hit frequency because I can easily spot when some of the other selections are getting good action while some of the original Keys are not.

I’m not sure what’s meant by the “7 ½ win factors on average in each race”.

For those players like yourself who are interested in the potential running positions, believe it or not the HKJC Form Guide also offers a Speed Map link that indicates the apparent running styles and anticipated positions of each entry in a race. I’ve also watched many of the races in HK over the last 3 ½ years. I’ve found that depending on the turf conditions and the distances involved that the winner can come from any just about any part of the race. I particularly enjoy watching those 5F (1000M) sprints at Sha Tin where they run in a straight line (much the same as the ¼-horse racing does).
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