Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Poll: Mega Barn "Super" Trainers are............... (You can choose more than one answer)
This poll will close on 01-06-2019 at 07:35 AM
Poll Options
Mega Barn "Super" Trainers are............... (You can choose more than one answer)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-08-2018, 12:29 PM   #106
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,909
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Was my third choice so didn't use at all even though I thought there would be a meltdown. The gap in the works caused me to toss. It's interesting. Some of the "move'em up" guys have regular workouts all the time but then there are guys like Servis who regularly miss works but still run out of their minds.
I bet him, he was my top contender. I thought Noble Indy was a fraud and Mendelssohn always overbet...but that was a joke, he would have beat Justify with the juice he had yesterday.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 12:33 PM   #107
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,323
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Was my third choice so didn't use at all even though I thought there would be a meltdown. The gap in the works caused me to toss. It's interesting. Some of the "move'em up" guys have regular workouts all the time but then there are guys like Servis who regularly miss works but still run out of their minds.
I think most people assumed the horse was a contender, partly because of the trainer but also he seems to be a horse that is much better at one turn than two. But being a contender and what we saw yesterday are two completely different things.

Maybe this guy is just the greatest trainer to come down the pike in decades, I have no idea. I just think it is sad that we can't enjoy the performances of the horses without having to wonder about other things.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 12:38 PM   #108
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,909
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I think most people assumed the horse was a contender, partly because of the trainer but also he seems to be a horse that is much better at one turn than two. But being a contender and what we saw yesterday are two completely different things.

Maybe this guy is just the greatest trainer to come down the pike in decades, I have no idea. I just think it is sad that we can't enjoy the performances of the horses without having to wonder about other things.
I cant bet Belmont today with his horses in them, I actually like them on their merits but I think after all the attention yesterday he may pull back on the needle, so not sure what to do. I will pass the card all together.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 12:51 PM   #109
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 17,276
Rep Power: 30 Robert Fischer will become famous soon enoughRobert Fischer will become famous soon enough
To me Firenze Fire looked like the kid who is big entering high school sports and never gets much bigger.

He also started to flatten-out on a consistent basis.

I wrote him off even as a contender. Yes... I know some people love the '1-turn' angle. I try to really be selective with that angle, because players are quick to use it to rationalize opinions.


There are possibilities that it was legit.

Maybe FF had injuries/issues that were hampering him for several races? Yesterday he was finally healthy?

And maybe the huge late odds drop was due to a lucky bet? Maybe their computer program falsely had FF as the top horse, and they were wrong, but happened to luck-into this horse that was finally healthy after being hampered for several races?

It's possible, but that sounds like bullshit. You have a barn where (before FF's Dwyer) horses are suddenly improving dramatically, and then the horse has bad enough form to be 5/1 or 6/1 or whatever... Maybe a fringe contender in the Dwyer if you go for the 1-turn angle thing... and suddenly he drops to 5/2 at the break and runs like he's the Top 3YO.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 01:06 PM   #110
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,909
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
To me Firenze Fire looked like the kid who is big entering high school sports and never gets much bigger.

He also started to flatten-out on a consistent basis.

I wrote him off even as a contender. Yes... I know some people love the '1-turn' angle. I try to really be selective with that angle, because players are quick to use it to rationalize opinions.


There are possibilities that it was legit.

Maybe FF had injuries/issues that were hampering him for several races? Yesterday he was finally healthy?

And maybe the huge late odds drop was due to a lucky bet? Maybe their computer program falsely had FF as the top horse, and they were wrong, but happened to luck-into this horse that was finally healthy after being hampered for several races?

It's possible, but that sounds like bullshit. You have a barn where (before FF's Dwyer) horses are suddenly improving dramatically, and then the horse has bad enough form to be 5/1 or 6/1 or whatever... Maybe a fringe contender in the Dwyer if you go for the 1-turn angle thing... and suddenly he drops to 5/2 at the break and runs like he's the Top 3YO.
That lucky bet would have been easy 5 figures....like you said did have form for that type of bet?

Here is another interesting stat, of the last 35 runners, and its like 20 wins, he has ZERO second place finishes, how is that even possible. I guess racing luck doesnt come into play for that barn. Stat was on Twitter, dont recall who said it.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 01:27 PM   #111
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,323
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
Servis isn't just killing Belmont. He is 17 for his last 30 outside of Belmont.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 03:01 PM   #112
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,887
Rep Power: 6 Andy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really nice
So what do we do with Fig Jelly in the 6th at Belmont. Goes to Servis from Wayne Rice who was at 0% when Fig Jelly was claimed from him.
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2018, 03:04 PM   #113
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 10,469
Rep Power: 19 PhantomOnTour will become famous soon enough
I'd like to bet this 8 coming up in R4 at Belmont....better have a saver under the 7 I guess ��
__________________
Mise En Place
Ferme la bouche
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 07:47 AM   #114
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,887
Rep Power: 6 Andy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really nice
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 08:12 AM   #115
Immortal6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 278
Rep Power: 3 Immortal6 will become famous soon enoughImmortal6 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
So what do we do with Fig Jelly in the 6th at Belmont. Goes to Servis from Wayne Rice who was at 0% when Fig Jelly was claimed from him.
After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
Immortal6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 10:04 AM   #116
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,887
Rep Power: 6 Andy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really nice
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post
After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
That's the thing. As longtime handicappers we can use the Trainer stats to evaluate horses. But, those of us that want a fair contest (and that includes Trainers, Owners,Breeders, want this stuff to stop. Only way to stop it is to get the FBI involved from the farms to the tracks IMO
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 10:09 AM   #117
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 86,354
Rep Power: 112 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post
After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
Here is a good rule of thumb for Servis horses - add 18 Beyer points to the the previous best. That is the median improvement for his last 24 winners.

Would be especially interesting to see how those 24 winners were bet as well.
Late money, odds drop in the second fraction?

I suspect as long as Servis is entering horses, we bettors will need something close to Fig Jelly, but not exactly that.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 07:53 PM   #118
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,887
Rep Power: 6 Andy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really niceAndy Asaro is just really nice
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 08:30 PM   #119
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,323
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
Nothing to see here with Servis. Don't believe me, believe him!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...arrassing_123#
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-09-2018, 08:42 PM   #120
Grits
Registered User
 
Grits's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,546
Rep Power: 21 Grits has a spectacular aura aboutGrits has a spectacular aura aboutGrits has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Nothing to see here with Servis. Don't believe me, believe him!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...arrassing_123#
I read this yesterday. First class...and all like that.



“People are talking a lot of shit,” Servis said, “and I’m really not happy about it.”
Grits is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
What is your most successful handicapping trait/tool?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.