santa anita derby

[zico20]

Originally Posted by LoneF

My plan is to bet $80 in the race. I like the top 3 ice cold

What I can’t decide is if I am better off just playing the tri straight and punch the ticket 80 times ( based off $1 base wager ) or if I should play the super and just treat it like a straight trifecta and use all remaining horses for the 4th spot and punch the ticket 20 times.

Let me give you some advice. If you are so sure on the trifecta, and by the way, I like that also, then do this. Assuming the trifecta pays 10 dollars and the super pays around 40, put 100 into the race. A 60 dollar straight tri 6-3-1 and pick the one you like the best out of the other four and play a 40 dollar straight super. If you just hit the tri you profit 200 dollars. If you hit the super also you profit 1000 dollars. Why do this? You are getting 20-1 odds that you can pick the winner of a four horse race. Think about it, if the 1-3-6 would scratch out of the race, would you get 20-1 on any of the others in a four horse race. Not even close! There is the value in the race if you are certain of how the top three will finish.

You say you are betting 80 dollars, I hope and pray that isn't your last 80 dollars to your name, so throw in another 20 and go for the big money.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I do not think you can consider the other Ruis horse a rabbit. Seems to me he is the second slowest horse in the race besides the 5 who is an absolute plodder. Is there something I am missing?

He's no rabbit. Last effort at equal distance on turf was actually half decent finishing only about a second off some stakes times. He ran the final panel in about 11.5 and 3/8th in ~36.5. Somebody's gonna collect the $50k for finishing 4th. He could do it.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by zico20

Let me give you some advice. If you are so sure on the trifecta, and by the way, I like that also, then do this. Assuming the trifecta pays 10 dollars and the super pays around 40, put 100 into the race. A 60 dollar straight tri 6-3-1 and pick the one you like the best out of the other four and play a 40 dollar straight super. If you just hit the tri you profit 200 dollars. If you hit the super also you profit 1000 dollars. Why do this? You are getting 20-1 odds that you can pick the winner of a four horse race. Think about it, if the 1-3-6 would scratch out of the race, would you get 20-1 on any of the others in a four horse race. Not even close! There is the value in the race if you are certain of how the top three will finish.

You say you are betting 80 dollars, I hope and pray that isn't your last 80 dollars to your name, so throw in another 20 and go for the big money.

Oh...... pace advantage, just when you think you've seen it all.

[cutchemist42]

Anyone know of a Santa Anita stream for this?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I do not think you can consider the other Ruis horse a rabbit. Seems to me he is the second slowest horse in the race besides the 5 who is an absolute plodder. Is there something I am missing?

I guess we see how he is ridden, cause your right he should be no where near the lead...but this race goes with 2 entered so not sure why he is entered.

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

50 cent trifacta might pay $2.50 if Bolt/Justify finish over Instilled Regard. I'm just not sure how good Justify will be. Heartfullofstars running in the Race 10 Wood at Aqueduct won his maiden mile in the slop at Santa Anita a week before Justify in 1:35.89 versus Justify's 135.73. Justify ran last quarter in over 26 seconds. Maybe a little geared down the last few strides but unanswered question about how far his speed will go. The only way to get a half arse payout here is to have Bolt or Justify knocked out of the top two. I think I'll play Bolt/IR,Justify trifecta and hope IR fills the middle. I don't think any of the others are even close.

Trying to compare times that way is a waste of time. People figured this out at least 80 years ago. I have a book from the 1930s that talks about speed figures. It is really detailed, by the way, not at all what you'd expect.

https://www.amazon.com/Select-Winnin.../dp/B000N0P44E

It included adjustments for losing ground, parallel time charts, weight, etc.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by cj

Trying to compare times that way is a waste of time. People figured this out at least 80 years ago. I have a book from the 1930s that talks about speed figures. It is really detailed, by the way, not at all what you'd expect.

https://www.amazon.com/Select-Winnin.../dp/B000N0P44E

It included adjustments for losing ground, parallel time charts, weight, etc.

I liked Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Got off of him due to his slow Turfway Park race and all other kinds of BS reasons.

Tossed aside times and such since that day.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

Trying to compare times that way is a waste of time.

I do agree otherwise there would be no use for speed figures. That said, I have had some success using the clock on occasion to toss horses who had an unconvincing high speed figure last out.

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I do agree otherwise there would be no use for speed figures. That said, I have had some success using the clock on occasion to toss horses who had an unconvincing high speed figure last out.

Fair, there are certainly speed figures that are tougher to make than others and some border on the impossible. Nothing wrong with being skeptical, especially about short priced horses.

[LoneF]

I actually thought about doing something like you suggested with betting both the tri and super ice cold but the problem with that is I couldn’t really get a good read on any of the remaining horses after the top 3 so picking just one horse for the 4th spot just seemed like almost playing the lottery.

I will just go ahead and bet the tri straight and just punch it 80 times and see what happens ....

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by LoneF

I actually thought about doing something like you suggested with betting both the tri and super ice cold but the problem with that is I couldn’t really get a good read on any of the remaining horses after the top 3 so picking just one horse for the 4th spot just seemed like almost playing the lottery.

I will just go ahead and bet the tri straight and just punch it 80 times and see what happens ....

if i had to play only one number that would be it. but the 1 is no locky mcLock lock for 3rd

[LoneF]

Yeah the running 3rd is the part of the equation that I am most worried about coming in ...

[GMB@BP]

with the Ky Derby the real goal you have to wonder if it changes the way the horses are ridden, I just dont see the incentive to create some kind of Derby style pace scenario, the horses are naturally fast but these riders would be kind of dumb to go nutz when Bolt is in and a 2nd gets Justify in the race they actually care about.

[LoneF]

I hear what your saying, but this year 40 points probably gets Justify in, but you can’t 100% count on it and also I think Baffert really wants to beat Bolt after what happened with Bolt/McKenzie.

[098poi]

for the win